Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/7-9 results)
McConnell (R) 49 (48)
Lunsford (D) 38 (36)
The trend lines are from an R2K poll commissioned not by Daily Kos, but by the Lexington Herald-Leader and WKYT. The methodology and sample breakdowns are virtually the same, however. And as for the results, we see what appears to be mostly float in the MoE.
Among Lunsford's problems are Democrats, who make up a plurality of the state's electorate. Much as they have done for a while at the federal level, these Democrats are more apt to punch the hole for Republicans. With Dems, Lunsford currently gets only 65 percent, with 18 percent going to McConnell and a high 17 percent still undecided. More than any other group, Lunsford's chances appear to hinge on bringing home Democrats.
McConnell hasn't locked this thing away, though. Given his high name ID and long tenure in the state, his 49-44 approval/disapproval rating is quite anemic.
As for Obama, this is one of those rare states (i.e. the Appalachian ones) in which he runs weaker than other Democrats (like Clinton) might have.
McCain (R) 56 (58)
Obama (D) 35 (33)
Obama garners only 29 percent of the white vote, and with African Americans making up only about nine percent of the electorate, that's a recipe for a wipeout. (Kerry won 35 percent of the Kentucky white vote in 2004.)
Full crosstabs below the fold.
On the web: Bruce Lunsford for Senate
Update: Rasmussen released its own Kentucky polling today, President, Senate (6/25 results):
McConnell (R) 50 (48)
Lunsford (D) 38 (41)
McCain (R) 49 (51)
Obama (D) 39 (35)
The Senate numbers are almost identical, but big difference in those presidential numbers.
Kentucky Poll July 2008
From July 28-30, 2008
600 likely voters
Margin of error is 4%
Sample Figures:
Men 287 48%
Women 313 52%
Dem 277 46%
Rep 227 38%
Ind 96 16%
18-29 101 17%
30-44 191 32%
45-59 193 32%
60+ 115 19%
White 528 88%
Black 53 9%
Other 19 3%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitch McConnell?
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 16% 33% 21% 20% 10%
Men 18% 36% 19% 18% 9%
Women 14% 30% 23% 22% 11%
Dem 4% 23% 31% 32% 10%
Rep 31% 46% 9% 6% 8%
Ind 16% 32% 20% 19% 13%
18-29 11% 28% 27% 25% 9%
30-44 18% 36% 17% 17% 12%
45-59 14% 30% 25% 23% 8%
60+ 21% 38% 15% 15% 11%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Bruce Lunsford?
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 11% 33% 30% 12% 14%
Men 9% 31% 33% 14% 13%
Women 13% 35% 27% 10% 15%
Dem 17% 45% 15% 5% 18%
Rep 5% 20% 47% 21% 7%
Ind 8% 31% 34% 13% 14%
18-29 14% 37% 27% 9% 13%
30-44 9% 31% 32% 13% 15%
45-59 12% 35% 28% 11% 14%
60+ 8% 29% 33% 15% 15%
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Bruce Lunsford, the Democrat, or Mitch McConnell the Republican?
McConnell Lunsford Undecided
All 49% 38% 13%
Men 53% 35% 12%
Women 45% 41% 14%
Dem 18% 65% 17%
Rep 86% 6% 8%
Ind 51% 37% 12%
White 55% 35% 10%
Black 5% 63% 32%
Other 7% 57% 36%
18-29 45% 44% 11%
30-44 52% 35% 13%
45-59 46% 40% 14%
60+ 53% 33% 14%
District 1 51% 36% 13%
District 2 53% 35% 12%
District 3 40% 49% 11%
District 4 51% 34% 15%
District 5 50% 37% 13%
District 6 49% 37% 14%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve DisapproveNot Sure
All 33% 66% 1%
Men 36% 63% 1%
Women 30% 69% 1%
Dem 9% 90% 1%
Rep 66% 33% 1%
Ind 26% 73% 1%
18-29 28% 70% 2%
30-44 36% 63% 1%
45-59 32% 67% 1%
60+ 37% 62% 1%
If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican?
McCain Obama Undecided
All 56% 35% 9%
Men 59% 34% 7%
Women 53% 36% 11%
Dem 28% 64% 8%
Rep 87% 4% 9%
Ind 64% 26% 10%
White 63% 29% 8%
Black 4% 85% 11%
Other 11% 69% 20%
18-29 49% 39% 12%
30-44 60% 32% 8%
45-59 54% 38% 8%
60+ 61% 31% 8%
District 1 58% 33% 9%
District 2 60% 32% 8%
District 3 42% 48% 10%
District 4 61% 31% 8%
District 5 58% 34% 8%
District 6 56% 34% 10%