Research 2000 for Daily Kos. July 28-30. Likely voters. MoE 4% (4/28-30 results)
Dole (R) 50 (48)
Hagan (D) 42 (41)
Not much change, with Dole right at that 50 percent mark considered "safe", though I doubt anyone really thinks Dole can just slack off.
There are several races in which Obama's strength will have a say in the outcome of the Senate race, and this is certainly one of them, so let's see how he does:
McCain (R) 47 (50)
Obama (D) 43 (41)
Yeah, this one is a tossup. And it's likely even better than this. According to the 2004 exit polls African Americans made up 26 percent of the North Carolina electorate. The sample size of this poll is 22 percent black, and does anyone think black turnout will be down this year? Didn't think so...
So all things considered, these are pretty darn good numbers. You Tarheelers are going to be really busy this year.
On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate
North Carolina Poll July 2008
From July 28 -30, 2008.
600 likely voters
Margin of error is 4%
Sample Figures:
Men 286 48%
Women 314 52%
Dem 264 44%
Rep 216 36%
Ind 120 20%
18-29 108 18%
30-44 198 33%
45-59 180 30%
60+ 114 19%
White 426 71%
Black 132 22%
Other 42 7%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan ?
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 14% 37% 21% 11% 17%
Men 12% 34% 25% 13% 16%
Women 16% 40% 17% 9% 18%
Dem 20% 51% 11% 6% 12%
Rep 7% 20% 35% 19% 19%
Ind 14% 37% 19% 7% 23%
18-29 16% 41% 17% 7% 19%
30-44 13% 35% 24% 15% 13%
45-59 13% 36% 22% 11% 18%
60+ 14% 36% 21% 11% 18%
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole?
Very Very No
Fav Fav Unfav Unfav Opinion
All 19% 34% 21% 17% 9%
Men 21% 38% 18% 15% 8%
Women 17% 30% 24% 19% 10%
Dem 10% 22% 33% 28% 7%
Rep 31% 48% 10% 6% 5%
Ind 17% 35% 15% 14% 19%
18-29 15% 30% 25% 20% 10%
30-44 22% 37% 17% 15% 9%
45-59 21% 36% 19% 16% 8%
60+ 18% 32% 23% 18% 9%
If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Kay Hagan the Democrat, or Elizabeth Dole the Republican ?
Dole Hagan Undecided
All 50% 42% 8%
Men 54% 39% 7%
Women 46% 45% 9%
Dem 18% 71% 11%
Rep 89% 8% 3%
Ind 50% 39% 11%
White 68% 27% 5%
Black 7% 81% 12%
Other 8% 71% 21%
18-29 43% 49% 8%
30-44 54% 39% 7%
45-59 53% 40% 7%
60+ 50% 40% 10%
Ral/Dur 46% 47% 7%
Charlotte 49% 40% 11%
Green/WS 53% 38% 9%
Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?
Approve Disapprove
All 36% 64%
Men 40% 60%
Women 34% 66%
Dem 7% 93%
Rep 73% 27%
Ind 34% 66%
18-29 30% 70%
30-44 39% 61%
45-59 38% 62%
60+ 37% 63%
If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, or John McCain, the Republican ?
McCain Obama Undecided
All 47% 43% 10%
Men 52% 39% 9%
Women 42% 47% 11%
Dem 16% 77% 7%
Rep 85% 6% 9%
Ind 47% 35% 18%
White 64% 26% 10%
Black 5% 89% 6%
Other 7% 72% 21%
18-29 39% 54% 7%
30-44 51% 39% 10%
45-59 49% 41% 10%
60+ 49% 38% 13%
Ral/Dur 42% 48% 10%
Charlotte 51% 38% 11%
Green/WS 52% 38% 10%