How many times in the last several weeks have we heard or read the question "Why isn’t Obama further ahead?" It’s one thing when Obama supporters ask it - we are cheering him on; eagerly waiting for him to put some daylight between himself and his opponent. It’s another thing entirely when his detractors ask the same question, because they are implying that he doesn’t live up to the "hype" or that he is an "empty suit." As we are all wearily familiar, this is nothing but Rove-speak, i.e., attacking the opponent’s obvious strengths. Obama will draw 75,000 to Invesco Field in a couple of weeks simply by showing up. McCain couldn’t draw that many if he were handing out $50 bills. Therein lies an undeniable element of envy. McCAIN IS LOSING
By posing the question, "Why isn’t Obama further ahead," Obama’s detractors are conceding that their guy is behind (I call it LOSING). Let’s cut through the nonsense and take stock of our situation:
Obama has sustained a lead in national polls since April. McCAIN IS LOSING
Pundits have made comparisons to Mike Dukakis’1988 presidential bid. Such comparisons are not valid; these are entirely different circumstances. The protracted primary season of 2008 has provided voters an extended opportunity to scrutinize candidates. Obama’s current advantage is likely to be sustained, if not expanded, right to Election Day. McCAIN IS LOSING
The McCain camp knows this and at the same time, are scratching their heads as to why he can’t break 45%. Particularly in light of the millions of dollars being spent on ridiculous attack ads. While these ads may have been effective in slowing Obama’s momentum slightly, McCain has yet to make substantial inroads with undecided voters. McCain is leading, but not by much, in many of the states that went big for Bush in 2000, 2004. The McCain campaign is throwing Hail-Marys and we're not yet in the final quarter. A sure sign of desperation? McCAIN IS LOSING
The Obama camp has its work cut out for it especially in terms of anticipating and neutralizing any "October Surprise" that those devious Rove-clones may gin up. However, the facts remain the same – McCAIN IS LOSING.
We have plenty of reason to feel optimistic about Obama’s chances. It’s unclear at this juncture, just how things will play out. Will an Obama victory be achieved by "small ball" – i.e., Kerry states plus IA, NM, and VA or IA, NM, and CO? Or Will an Obama victory be achieved by "slugging" – i.e., Obama takes Kerry states plus IA, NM, VA, CO, FL, and OH? Either way, McCAIN IS LOSING.
It is painfully obvious that George W. Bush is the worst thing that ever happened to the GOP. But sometimes you get your just desserts. A McCain loss in November will represent the follow-up of a 1-2 punch to the gut of the GOP that will send it to the mat with its ears ringing. Let’s hope it stays down for a long count.