It is a little known fact that I, Morus, was once the seventh favourite to become Barack Obama's Vice-Presidential nominee. Seriously. This is absolutely not a joke.
At midday (British Summer Time), on Thursday 21st August, 2008 - only 44 hours before the final decision was announced, Ladbrokes (the biggest UK bookmaker) republished its market on the Democratic Party VP slot. It read as follows:
3/1 Bayh, H Clinton, Biden
5/1 Kaine
8/1 Sebelius
12/1 Clarke
14/1 ***MORUS***
20/1 Gore, Reed
25/1 Richardson, Warner, Kerry, Nunn
33/1 Schweitzer, Veneman
Although I put great store in the power of the betting markets to predict political futures, that tends to be swayed by the fact that I follow mostly Betfair and Intrade, which are exchanges, so respond to liquidity without much overround. Fixed odds bookmakers, like Ladbrokes, have to limit liability, so they will offer the best prices they can afford, but limited if that option has had a lot staked on it. Biden was clear favourite on Betfair, but hadn't attracted many bets through Ladbrokes, so they could keep offering 3/1. Veneman should have been 100/1, but we ran an article on her, and the money that attracted caused her price to plummet. I was added by Shadsy at Ladbrokes as a bit of a joke (given that my UK citizenship renders me Constitutionally ineligible, by Article II, pending the 'Schwartznegger' Amendment being passed), but I managed to attract enough money (largely I suspect from kind-hearted friends, or not-so-kindhearted PUMAs) to become seventh favourite - ahead of my preferred choices (Warner and Schweitzer) and my favourite Governor, Bill Richardson (he really better get Secretary of State...)
I think it all started when someone on the site suggested I had an ulterior motive for coming to Denver (a mistress, or a skiing trip perhaps - neither one remotely true). Then some more outlandish suggestions were proffered, culminating in the belief that I might be seeking to win the VP nomination from the floor. It was at this point that Ladbrokes added me to the market. A price of 1000/1 was requested by the punters, but Shadsy responded that he had concerns that I might actually be Senator Evan Bayh in disguise, and that he had to limit his firm's liability. I don't know what the opening price was (about 33/1 I think), but it quickly fell, as I overtook various little-known Senators and Congressmen in the value of bets waged.
I'm trying not to feel bitter about Joe Biden getting the nod. He has the benefit of age, I suppose, but I am fairly sure that I could have 'embodied the brand' a little better (and my home country of Wales has almost as many votes as Delaware anyway). When articles were being written about Obama being 'too fit' to be elected by a country facing an obesity epidemic, some astute punters pointed out that (as well as appealing to blue-collar Catholics) my portly frame might help Obama with that all important 'rotund demographic'. But it was not to be.
I'm sure Joe will do fine, if he doesn't accidentally plagiarise Neil Kinnock again. That said, I think that in 2012, Barack should be thinking about his successor. I don't want to make this too explicit, but - Barack, if you're reading: I wouldn't leave you hanging, buddy. At least let me make the final three-name shortlist? It's all about momentum...
Next time, Morus - there's always next time.
I'M IN DENVER RIGHT NOW - IF YOU ARE ABOUT AND WOULD LIKE TO MEET UP AND/OR BE INTERVIEWED AS A REAL LIVE AMERICAN VOTER, PLEASE E-MAIL ME ON MY PROFILE EMAIL ADDRESS.