Or, to put it another way to the Republican strategists: this is as transparent as polished glass.
You don't expect any such thing.
It's pretty easy to define. It's a hustle, and it's not a very well hidden one. More below the fold...
How much bounce do actual political experts expect? Five-point-five percent...
Based on his current standing in the polls (4.75 points behind his expected--based on my super-duper forecasting model--vote share), the fact that the convention starts seven days before the Republican convention, and accounting for slight decline in convention bumps over time, the convention bump model predicts a 5.5 percentage point bump in Obama's share of the two-party vote in trial-heat polls. This is slightly smaller than the historical average (5.9 percentage points), in part because the two conventions are closer together than any others during the period analyzed (1964-2004).
The prediction is based on the results of a regression analysis (below) of convention bumps, utilizing the variables described above, as well as a dummy variable for the 1968 and 1972 Democratic conventions -- political scientist Thomas Holbrook.
As you see, the REAL predicted bounces and the actual bounces don't stray much from the line. It might be 7 or 8 percent, but not fifteen.
Nate at FiveThirtyEight.com concludes the bounce is temporary, and is gone within 3-4 weeks. After putting the bounce numbers into an equation...
After playing around with a number of functional forms, I eventually found one based on the combination of two logarithms that that had a decent amount of explanatory power. That function looks like this:
(Mathematically, this is the function:
Ln(d)*20.1 - 31.8*Ln(d+4) + 43.4
...where 'd' is the number of days elapsed from the start of the convention (the first day of the convention is counted as '1' rather than '0'). Note that I weighted recent years somewhat more heavily in coming up with this equation. The function is defined as zero where it takes on a negative value).
Yet the GOP is saying they expect a fifteen point bounce. Why? Here's how it works, non-Republican strategists, in three easy steps.
1 - this week, the GOP plays up our side's chances or attributes. "Come on", they say, "play by these rules. You'll beat us by 15 points by the end of the week. Don't question what I'm saying, or the motive of why I'm saying it. Just let us say it. And let us say it over. And over again. Everyone on our side is saying you'll get a 15-point bounce."
2 - no 15 point bounce happens. Because no 15 point bounce has EVER happened for a Democrat (well, not in my lifetime!).
3 - next week the GOP will feign concern and shock, almost as if in unison. "Oh we're so sorry for Obama. I guess people don't like him. The like McCain now, and he got a bump too"...
Apologies if this has already been posted. I'm approaching this from the "how do we combat it" angle.
So how do we combat it? Easy! We call it for what it is! We call it a hustle, we take their three-step strategy and kill it dead in its tracks.
I've heard the Republican's top political brains say they expect a fifteen-point bounce for Obama. Well, they should know that no Democrat has ever received a 14 point bounce, never mind 15 points.
No, this is just an attempt to build Obama up so they can knock him down. And it's a shame. It's a shame because, once again, it shows that the Republican Party have a real problem with running their campaign because they know they have no ideas. McCain doesn't have people that can Google these numbers for him, just like he doesn't know how many homes he owns or what's going on in foreign countries.
But we have to call them on it THIS WEEK. Or they own this meme for the weeks to come. It ONLY works for them if they sneak it into the structure of the debate now. So that's why I'm posting this. It shows that we're wise to it from Day One.
If you know any Democratic Party strategists, you might want to show them this. And tell them to call it like it is AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY. We need to own this way of framing the numbers. If we do, we show how the GOP are hustlers. We show how bad they are with numbers. And we show how they'll sa any fanciful thing to get elected.
Thanks.
ShawnGBR.
Volunteer Data Coordinator, PA Obama For Change.