Let me first to say that Obama should have been more politically savvy in handling the Clintons. The VP vetting issue could've used a more deft touch to lower Clintonite expectations. And he should be giving more props to the Clinton administration (though his newer stump speech does give a shout out to the Clinton economy). Obama could do more to sway some straying Clintonites. But this is about what Hillary needs to do. Let's be clear: If Obama consolidates Democratic support (meaning if he can win over the most persuadable undecideds), he'll likely win by a comfortable margin. But he's not there yet. And if Obama loses and the exit polls show that Hillary dead-enders were the cause, Hillary’s presidential ambition is cooked. So the speech tonight looms large for the former rivals. Obama needs her full-throated support; and she needs to provide it. The stakes are extremely high tonight. But what must she actually say to help Obama close the deal with her disaffected supporters?
Clinton supporters typically raise two key objections to Obama: one is that he’s "unqualified", an empty suit". This is voiced more by Clinton's working class voters. The second is the nonsensical but strongly held belief that he won the primaries through shady means (via DNC help, etc.), which is part of the series of perceived slights that have so embiteered die-hard Hillaristas. I actually don’t think that Hillary Clinton is sufficiently reflective to realize that her campaign fanned these dangerous and wrong memes, which are extremely damaging to the Obama campaign. But aware or not, she still has an obligation to walk back from them. I would suggest a speech that hits three points.
Point 1. Obama is qualified. Discussing working with Obama in Senate; work shows he is smart and shows good judgment. Hit the point that good judgment, not years in Washington, is the key to being a good president. See Clinton, Bill; Kennedy, John; Lincoln, Abe.
Point 2. Obama won fair and square. Discussion on how Obama masterfully ran a $200 million dollar campaign and made smart decisions regarding the primaries and caucuses. This speaks to executive experience and good management skills. Only she knows how hard that is because she ran against him.
Point 3. Partisan contrast. Issues Hillary cares about will be addressed under Obama. Health care, allaying economic disparity, choice, energy. McCain/Bush a disaster if you care about those issues. McCain is also a smear merchant, a war-monger and totally out of touch.
However, I expect that Hillary cannot, for her own political reasons, concede that Obama won fair and square or walk back the "he’s not qualified" frame. Instead I expect that her speech will be first a celebration of the "invisible" hard-working white Americans of whom she now believes herself to be a champion. Then, the speech will build to point 3, a lengthy, hard-hitting partisan contrast between Clinton and Obama on one side, and McCain and Bush on the other. To be sure, Hillary speech will offer plenty of juicy red meat for Democratic partisans to chew on. The press will likely conclude that this speech did everything Clinton could to help Obama. And a speech like this would help quite a bit, with that segment of working-class core Democrat voters that remain skeptical. But you know, if she doesn’t address the "unqualified" and "dirty campaign" misconceptions, she still will be leaving Obama out to dry with the die-hard Hillaristas. Let’s remember: not everyone views their votes in a transactional way, on the basis of issues alone. Voters often get attached to certain narratives fed by campaigns. As her chances for the nomination dwindled after the Wisconsin primary, Clinton continued to sell voters on the idea that Obama is unqualified for the presidency, and that she had the most votes and might have won if not for DNC hijinks with Florida and Michigan. This narrative is at the heart of the resentment of the Hillaristas. She needs to walk this back.
If she does, she deserves all the lavish praise she’ll undoubtedly receive tonight no matter what.