I hear a lot of chatter about how he is making a play for disgruntled Hillary voters, and how he is gambling on a game changer. I disagree. My take on McCain's choice is very different. McCain was desperate for a game changer but not in the way everyone expects because the pick of Palin is not historic in any way (Ferraro anyone?). But it does do something for him. Luckily, it does it at a BIG BIG cost.
Think about this for a minute- who is going to vote for McCain
Key target groups
- Dittoheads: The person who would vote for Satan if he had a R beside his name because they think any other option would make America "socialist"
- Radically Religious: The sort who will vote for him because the alternative suggests to them that there will be abortions in every street and every cornfed American boy will be afflicted by the ghey.
- The racist vote: Which is the anti-Obama vote
- The working class guy who genuinely believe his POW status and experience makes him a CIC favorite.
Now the handicap that he always faced in this election is that he has no economic chomps. By any standards. Now with Obama taking on his foreign policy cred- both with his judgment argument as well as with picking Joe Biden, even his foreign policy chomps are in play. He is also - old. That makes his second in command selection even more critical. He has a whole host of other problems but let us just stay with these for a second, because these will be critical in this election.
McCain gains:
- He may actually create some buzz in his campaign. The evangelicals will be happy to get something new in this desperately old campaign. And she makes them so happy because she is anti choice, and pro creationism.
- He makes the racists happy because they feel atleast they are selecting a woman.
- The dittoheads can also crow that they are also for change! Of course the only change in Sarah is her gender, but so what? They don't need reason.
McCain losses:
However McCain gets a BIG, BIG loss that is significantly more than the gains that he gets from the above groups. See, the Evangelicals, Dittoheads and Racists were going to vote for him anyway- given the alternative. The guys who were going to DECIDE the election were never these people.
- If you are a working class white male or female who lost their job because it was sent to China, who is losing their home, who is struggling to pay the bills, what kind of promise does Palin bring to the table in terms of your economic future? Given that McCAIN is being sold as the guy who is CLUELESS on the economy- the MOST critical issue of this election, he did his chances NO favors by selecting someone equally clueless.
- If you were the ideologically uncommitted person who was worried about Obama's experience and were voting for the POW with years of experience, what does his choice of a second in command say to you? Given that McCain is not terribly young, do you think these guys and gals would be thrilled about his CiC choice? I am saying- NO.
- If you were the disgruntled Hillary supporter who did not care about Obama's race, just sad that an imminently qualified woman lost her shot at the presidency, how does Sarah Palin seem to you- a woman who has not shown one millionth of the resolve or the policy knowledge that Hillary had?? I mean sure, a lot of us disagreed with her tactics, but Hillary was seen as an ally by women and the working class. Add to that a conservative, anti choice agenda and a woman who is no friend to her gender the only voters he gets are the voters he would have gotten anyway.
- Most of all, if you are a moderate Republican, or a moderate anything, how does her absolute right wing, radically conservative ideology work for you?
Sure, McCain will drive the media narrative for a few hours. Sure there will be some excitement in his base. But think about how this looks to the truly undecided voter, the true independent, or even the moderate but not truly committed Democrat or Republican? He may have ignited a small fire in his base, but- he may have just lost every swing voter there IS with a weak, vaccous choice.
I guess what the Republicans fail to understand is that it is not just a black candidate or a woman candidate, it is about the "right" candidate. You are not going to get all the Hillary supporters by floating a insubstancial, INSULTING substitute. You are not going to get the swing voter by someone without any knowledge of the economy or any foreign policy cred, plan OR policy. And most of all, you are not going to get this election unless your argument actually defeats the "more of the same" meme. Sarah is more of the same in all ways but her gender, and you know what John, Obama has far more people than YOU to ensure every undecided voter KNOWS that.
Sarah Palin turned Kansas a tad redder, but I think McCain lost a lot of states in play with this choice.