The more I think about it, the more John McCain's pick of Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) as his running mate makes sense. At various levels the pick actually works. Whether it also will succeed is still to be seen.
At first read the only two things that she has going for her are that at 44 she counterbalances McCain's old age (72) and that as a women she might have been put on the ticket as an unsubtle way to attract some of Hillary's female support.
As the Democrats had to announce their pick first, it was written in the stars that John McCain had the luxury to modify his choice according to Barack Obama’s. With not picking Hillary Clinton, Obama clearly gave McCain the opening to pick a woman. Had Clinton been selected, Palin would now still be in Alaska.
But if you look at Palin's resume, you'll see it's quite empty... she has been governor for less than two years and before that was a mayor of a town of about 8000 people... How can you attack Obama for being inexperienced and then pick an even less experienced person for the number two spot? Undermines one's own credibility, methinks. Especially with her one heartbeat away from a 72 year old President. It also clearly draws questions regarding to McCain’s judgement...John McCain believes he has his national security bases covered. By picking Palin he implicitly states that he doesn't need an eminence grise like Biden. But choosing Palin is also hubris. It shows a belief that he can master unforeseen circumstances, for instance health, that are well beyond his control. If the first duty of a Vice President is to be ready to take over on day one, than Palin fails to meet that test. Instead of picking the most qualified running mate he could find, McCain rolled the dice and bet the (white?) house. Which house exactly I dare not say as he has so many...
Also, Gov. Palin is not unspoken of... she's currently under investigation ("Wootengate") by her own GOP dominated legislature because she dismissed the Commissioner of Public Safety because he supposedly refused to fire an Alaska State Trooper, Mike Wooten, who had been involved in a divorce and child custody battle with Palin's sister, Molly McCann. Now I’m not going defend Mr. Wooten – for all I know he might have been a wife beater – but Palin should not have brought/sought retribution through her office of governor. Talk about abuse of power and ethics problems... with that she's a perfect fit for nowadays Republican Party. I'm betting that investigation would now magically disappear or be solved to her satisfaction... where it not that the appointed investigator is a Democrat. It’s certainly something the Obama campaign should hammer on.
She's very conservative though... Palin is an ideologue, on choice and gay rights, on the environment, on energy, on creationism at school -- all the way down the line. This an ideological good pick for the GOP at that, but a virtual unknown at large. She has 5 children with the youngest (born earlier this year) being afflicted with Down syndrome. Which in turn gives a strong signal to the conservative base with regards to abortion as the illness was detected in prenatal genetic tests but she choose not to abort.
All in all she has a political profile which makes me personally shiver.
The choice for Sarah Palin is clearly a risky one but one which will pay huge dividends if it succeeds. In the following paragraphs, I’ll be looking at some of the things which may be favouring her.
As said before, it’s clearly a not so subtle attempt to woo some of Clinton’s support. Now why any Clinton supporter would want to support someone with this profile, is beyond me. That’s why I think die hard Democrats will not be fooled by this. After Hillary Clinton's smart it's-not-about-me-it's-about-the-issues convention speech, it remains to be seen how many women will be tempted to obey their chromosomes and to abandon their causes. Some independents might and of course some of those dumb die hard PUMA’s (an endangered species because they’re so few of them). In a close election any vote counts so it’s not an unreasonable ploy to target the woman segment of the public.
It's hard to know how many women will fall for the Republican ticket with Palin on it. She is a far-right conservative who thinks global warming is a hoax, backs the teaching of creationism in public schools and opposes abortion even in the case of rape and incest. Questions may arise about the balance between work and family, enhanced by the fact that the Palins' fifth child was born with Down syndrome in April 2008. Voters might wonder whether Palin should undertake the rigors of the vice presidency while caring for a disabled infant. Although Democrats would be wise not to tread openly on this issue because it might counterfire, the issue might be still there in the minds.
Compare Palin with Biden on woman rights is a non sequitur. Joe Biden is a strong advocate for women, with a stellar record of supporting reproductive rights and opposing antichoice nominees to the Supreme Court. Biden also wrote the groundbreaking Violence Against Women Act, and is great on the economic issues so vital to so many women.
But Palin's also not without "merit". In the minds of the pundits and some of the general public, McCain's choice enhances the view - deservedly or not - that he's independent and a maverick. Choosing someone with the same reputation enhances his standing on this particular point. After all, this standing had come under siege of late.
Palin has little experience. But we Democrats run a big risk attacking her for her lack of experience. After all, when experience is Obama's weak side, you cannot say that she's less qualified when your own nominee isn't the most qualified in experience either. What the Palin pick does for us is that it inoculates Obama from further attack on his credentials. It might be wise not to attack hers too much... But to the extent the experience, qualifications, and national-security arguments are taken off the table, Obama wins.
The GOP has already started a meme: that certain attacks are belittling of Palin. In this they're clearly trumping for the sympathy card. Attacking a woman means you're mean.
Palin - although clearly inexperienced - has one advantage going into the Veep debate though: Sen. Biden will be expected to win the debate handily, she is going in as the clear underdog with low expectations. Joe Biden might want to modulate his tone against a woman or else be seen as "mean". Not getting wiped out by Joe Biden will be spun by the media as a clear victory for her and a defeat for Biden.
Its a huge-attention-getting pick though. The press will be talking about the Republican VP choice, they're literally gushing over it, Obama's piece is now yesterday's news. Of course the timing of the pick was designed to do exactly that - regardless whether it had been Romney, Pawlenty or someone else - but in picking Sarah Palin, McCain created extra buzz that draws out the Democratic National Convention. It's clearly designed to take back the initiative and to try to make Obama's convention bounce as small as possible. After the first ohs and ahs by the media, a new theme is starting to arise: that she’s a brilliant, bold but risky pick.
Don’t underestimate Palin: she’s a fighter. She defeated the long term mayor of Wasilla and in 2006 beat an unpopular governor Murkowski – a long term fix in Alaskan politics and a real powerhouse - in the primary and then a popular former governor Tony Knowles in the general. She knows how to fight.
The choice of Palin also infuses some middles class blood in the Republican ticket. Palin is clearly more in tune with most Americans than a patrician like Mitt Romney.
And lastly, the choice is heralded with joy by most of the conservative base. In that she’s just like Biden: plugging a whole in the nominee’s armour. In an election where motivation of the base will be very important in determining the outcome, McCain desperately needs an excited base. In that this pick seems to be working.
Whether the McCain-Palin ticket is successful or not. Sarah Palin will be a force to be reckoned with in the future. Either in 2012 or 2016, she'll be a far more experienced and formidable candidate for the presidency itself. Because she’d either be the last vice-presidential nominee and a governor with six years experience with the perfect profile (woman, immaculate conservative credentials), or the sitting vice-president. We'd be wise not to underestimate her.
The big question now will be... how will she perform on the campaign trail and in the debate? How prepared is she in the issues that dominate national not local politics? That’s for history to tell us... She could turn out to be an other Dan Quayle or a gem. But let’s be honest: people don’t vote for Vice-President, they vote for President. And in that, Barack Obama and McCain will still be the deciding factors.
In the end the 2008 election will be historical because come January for the first time ever, one of the two highest positions in the country (either the presidency or vice-presidency) will not be held by your standard white political male but by an African-American or a woman.