Hello All:
Not to take away attention from Gustav and Palin (you know, if you combine the names you get the evil genius in a James Bond movie) but there is something that I have been wondering about for some time now. One of the things that has been comforting me as the polls have stayed close throughout the summer is the continuing insistence from the Obama campaign that their ground game (especially as it pertains to new voter registration and GOTV) is prepared to absolutely swamp the McCain campaign.
The fellows over at Five Thirty Eight have touched on this as well. There have been reports about the incredible discrepancy between the two campaigns as it pertains to field offices, organizing, calling potential voters, identifying undecideds, etc.
My question is: How much is that all worth, in solid numbers? Has there been research done that can give us any clue as to the numerical value (in either numbers or a percentage of the electorate) of a strong organization? I would feel much easier in my own mind if I had empirical proof that the edge that the Obama campaign had on the ground might be worth, say, 2 points on the fourth of November. A swing that big, as most of us know, might push some of those toss-up states (yes, I mean YOU, Virginia!) from a toss-up to the Obama column.
We are looking at an election where as many as half a dozen states (Florida, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Nevada) might be decided by 3 points or less. I know that the Obama campaign has been pouring resources into those states like mad (especially Ohio & Florida) but will organization be able to offset the inherent advantages that the Republicans have, especially in a state like Florida?
Your thoughts are welcomed, and if anyone can point me towards any research that has been done on the topic, I would be very interested.