What's the matter with Kansas? Not that much, since one could argue that this trend started in Kansas and has spread to Virginia and Colorado.
What's the trend? Democratic gains in Western and other formerly red states.
There is a story about Colorado and the Democratic prospects and trend in the Western states in this week's The New Yorker, link below, but that story by Ryan Lizza does not go into the roots of this trend.
I would argue that those roots are in Kansas. I write from Lawrence, where I grew up and though we occasionally had a Democratic govenor, I don't think we ever had a Democratic congressman back then. We studied Kansas history and learned that this is the most Republican state in the nation.
So how did it happen or will it happen? It's pretty simple and with McCain flip-flopping to embrace the radical right particularly on social issues, the crackup may just put Obama over the top big time this fall.
Maybe even in Kansas.
I suspect that almost everyone here knows the premise of Thomas Frank's book WHAT'S THE MATTER WITH KANSAS?. Rural and blue collar voters in states like Kansas vote against their economic interests because of social issues. It's how George W. Bush won in Texas--"God, gays, and guns". Back in 1994, Bush's operatives basically were saying to Texas voters that Governor Ann Richards was prepared to send queers out to pick up their guns and Bibles.
But is Kansas getting a bad rap? I think so. First, though it has been a GOP stronghold for a long time, the state had moderate U.S. Senators until fairly recently. I'm having trouble saying this, recalling the election of 1974, but Bob Dole, who won that race in part by posting anti-abortion ads all over the place (running against Bill Roy, an obstetrician), was something of a moderate compared to what the GOP is today. Nancy Kassebaum was definitely a moderate. The current U.S. Senators are fairly right wing, but the folks at the local Democratic headquarters tell me that Pat Roberts might be in danger this year. That surprised me, but back in 2006, Nancy Boyda pulled off a huge upset (that I predicted) when she knocked off a legendary Kansas University track star, Jim Ryun, in a re-match. The other current Democratic congressman, Dennis Moore, is favored to win re-election to what I think is his sixth term. Moore and Boyda represent roughly the eastern half of the state.
I have to admit that I don't know or remember all the details, as I now live in Texas, but the basic story of how the GOP is losing strength here is that the party overplayed its hand on social issues, mainly on abortion and education. On abortion, the former state Attorney General, Phil Kline, was a fanatic, wanting to subpoena medical records on underage patients so as to investigate possible statutory rape cases. On education, the state came close to becoming a national laughingstock for its position on teaching evolution. Moderate suburban voters in affluent counties like Johnson revolted against both of these trends. See the New Yorker article below for comparable Colorado and Western situations.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/...
I am sure that everyone here knows that Kansas has an outstanding Democratic governor, Kathleen Sibelius, who is a strong supporter of Barack Obama.
So while I am predicting that Moore and Boyda will win re-election here,
ensuring that half of the congressional delegation will be Democrats, I am not sure if Obama could win, or if Roberts could lose. (It might help if his opponent pointed out that Roberts blocked investigating 9-11, and claimed that one of the reasons that we invaded Iraq is that Saddam would not let the inspectors in, while he was Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee.)
Finally, I would point out that part of the reason for Democratic success in the West recently is a tilt toward Libertarian ideas. Yes, I have posted diaries here suggesting that Ron Paul should be an ally in this campaign and I prefer his position on Afghanistan to that of my candidate.
And I deplore the nastiness I have seen here toward Paul partisans.
Anyone still reading this?
Political pundits have been observing for years that there is a large contingent of informed voters who favor "conservative" economics and "liberal" social positions and that is the wave of the future. Check out Gary Hart's recommendations on that in the New Yorker article. I think Obama's campaign is doing this right and we may not see a replay of 2000 and 2004, with it all coming down to Ohio or Florida plus the usual line-up.
Okay, as I said, I am writing from Lawrence where Obama signs and stickers are all over the place, along with signs and stickers that you can't see anywhere closer than Boulder, CO or maybe Columbia, MO. "Buck Fush", "Impeach Now", "Jail Bush", that kind of thing. But hey, I'm feeling kinda fired up!
See poll below.