The pundits on each show seem to be setting up an expectation game, but it is the wrong game.
Time and again, our pundits have been asking whether Palin will be a hit tomorrow night. I have no doubt that she will...to the people in the room. But that is not her real test.
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Palin is clearly beloved by the delegates, but that may not be a good thing. The people in that hall in St. Paul are the most active and most conservative of the Republicans, the loyal footsoldiers of the Bus/Christian Conservative Movement.
They are the dead-enders.
They are the men and women who continue to believe George Bush is a great president and reprsent that 30 percent who support him.
They are the ones who believed that Terry Schaivo was a fanatastic moment for the Republican Party and want more.
They are the men and women who do want to completely ban abortion.
They are the ones who believe that Iraq was not only a great idea, but that our occupation is going swimmingly.
They are the ones who believe that Saddam Hussein was involved in 9/11.
They are the ones who believe we found WMD.
The people in that room are why America voted for Democrats in 2006.
The fact that Palin is going to be loved by those people strikes me as a very, very bad thing for Republican Party.
Why? Because for her to kill in that convention hall tomorrow, she has to hit on all of those issues that make those people oh, so happy. While pundits will proclaim that how well the red meat she offered was lapped up by the delegates in the hall, I have the feeling it will go over with Americans the way Pat Buchanan's 1992 Culture War speech came across throught the television.
The pundits have been wrong for years and have not noticed, to quote Dick Cheney, that the wheel has turned. What thrills the dead-enders is exactly what frightens moderates and independents. McCain/Palin is running the 2004 election even though the dynamics have changed dramatically since then. Iraq, Katrina, health care and the economy -- not 9/11 and gay marriage -- are the issues that will decide this election, and those are the very issues the GOP has and will steadfastly ignore.
So think about that tomorrow when you are listening to Wolf Blitzer and John King and Chris Matthews and Pat Buchanan.
Winning the hall is going to help McCain/Palin lose the election.