Time for a Hispanic / Lation vote update and the storm that is brewing in Nov. We have some fantastic new nubmers from critical swing states, follow below the break....
These slipped under my radar so they are a day or two late but spread the news to add one more narrative to this week during the RNC convention. McCain doesn't have a women problem or a Hispanic problem, or an African American problem, he just has a voter problem. Wow, Rec List, thanks guys and gals! :)
In short, Obama is CRUSHING McCain with crazy numbers that I can move into the realm of "never seen" before in an election among the demographic. Two polls have just been released and both show an Obama has built an insurmountable lead, IMO.
First off we have the latest Latino Decision Poll conducted in battle ground states.
Full Poll
Latino Decisions Poll, August 27, 2008
Colorado O:69% M:24%
New Mexico O:70% M:21%
Nevada O:68% M:22%
Florida O:45% M:48%
By comparison here are the exit polls from 2004
Colorado K:68% B:30%
New Mexico K:56% B:44%
Nevada K:60% B:39%
Florida K:44% B:56%
Comparison of June’s Poll Numbers
Colorado O:57% M:31%
New Mexico O:57% M:31%
Nevada O:57% M:31%
Florida O:43% M:42%
So in 2 months
Obama is +12 in CO while McCain is -7
Obama is +13 in NM while McCain is -10
Obama is +11 in NV while McCain is -9
the net gains are eye popping.
While both are about the same in Florida
Obama is polling very very well by comparison with big gains in New Mexico and Nevada. Colorado and Florida are about the same as Kerry's past numbers, but McCain’s numbers are way down compared to Bush. This means that McCain not only has a lot of work to do in all four states, but he’s got extra work to do in Florida where Bush took 56% of the Latino vote thanks to Cuban Americans. Looks like Obama has a chance to make some in roads in the demographic. In the other three states Obama has a chance to jump into the solid 70’s, crushing traditional Democratic numbers since McCain is unable to pull even traditional Republican nubmers that usually hover in the mid to upper 30's.
From the poll...
Latino voters favored Barrack Obama over John McCain by a 3-1 margin in the key battleground states of New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, according to a new poll released by Latino Decisions and the National Association of Latino Elected Officials. In Florida, the poll showed that Latino voters favor McCain by a slim margin.
"Despite Hillary Clinton's success among Latinos in the primary, this new poll reveals that Obama is doing very well among Latino voters in battleground states. Now the most important question is what Latino voter turnout will be," said University of Washington political scientist Matt A. Barreto, an expert in Latino voting trends who was the poll's lead researcher.
The survey found that in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada, 68 percent of Latinos planned to vote for Obama, compared to 22 percent for McCain, while 10 percent were undecided.
Latino Decisions, a collaboration between Barreto, Pacific Market Research and Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura, conducted the poll by telephone Aug. 18 - 24.
The pre-convention poll reached 750 registered Latino voters in the four battleground states. Latino Decisions will release another poll taken in the same four states in mid-September following the Democratic and Republican national conventions.
In the three Southwest states, Obama's lead among Latinos was consistent. In New Mexico, Obama was favored over McCain 70 to 21 percent; in Colorado, Obama was favored 69 to 24 percent; and in Nevada, Obama was favored 68 to 22 percent. In all three Southwest states, a majority of Latinos are of Mexican descent and have traditionally voted Democratic.
In Florida, where Cuban-Americans constitute a significant portion of the Latino electorate, McCain led Obama 48 to 45 percent. In 2004, President Bush won 56 percent of the Florida Latino vote compared to 44 percent for John Kerry.
The poll predicts a 9 million voter turnout which would be at the high end of the 2000 estimates and 2 million more than came out in 2004 for Kerry vs Bush. With the registration drives that have been conducted in the community which put 1 million more voters on the ballots for the primaries and another additional 2-3 million more expected to be added for the general election, I’d say look for a record turnout of 10 million with a possibility of even more.
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Now for Poll Number 2 which confirms a crazy lead for Obama.
Democracy Corp Poll, July and August Polling
AZ, CO, NM, NV - No Florida
Obama 69%
McCain 24%
Full Poll
The poll does not break down the states but by the numbers but we can assume they are pretty damn close to Latino Decisions. Here is some info from the poll...
Obama has consolidated the Democratic Hispanic vote in a way that he has yet to do among non-Hispanic white voters.� Nationally, Obama runs 3 points below the generic Democratic presidential vote among white voters, but among Latinos his vote effectively matches the generic preference for a Democrat.[2]� He also holds a nearly 2-1 lead among independent Hispanics.
Nearly half of Hispanic voters say the concerns of blacks and Hispanics are similar, and among them, Obama holds an eye-popping 56-point lead over McCain.� But even among those who say the concerns of blacks and Hispanics are very different, Obama leads by 37 points.
or McCain to seriously improve his position among Hispanics, he would not only have to carve into Obama’s lead among independents, but he would also have to retain significant Democratic support.� Democrats hold a 63 to 14 advantage in party identification among southwestern Hispanics.
So McCain has been spending a crazy load of money on T.V. and radio ads targeting the community and in 3 months he not only has gotten diddly poo, but he’s actually faltered in the polls. We got to make sure the turnout is there folks and we can make sure NM and CO are strong Democratic wins this election cycle and we can turn Nevada. With the number’s he’s pulling it make total sense to me know why Obama thinks he can steel Nevada. I’ll add that McCain has had a problem of pulling out of the upper 20’s lower 20’s in the polls prior to these. Now he is having problems pulling out of the lower 20’s. Ouch.
UPDATE: SI SE PUEDE!!!!!!!!!!!! These are two groups that have polls specifically the Hispanic Latino demographic before and are the only one's besides Pew to be keeping tabs on voting trends... that I know of.
p.s. I have 1 maybe 2 slots open in my Daily Kos Fantasy Football League first ones to email me get the slots. I need to fill them to have a complete league. hms AT ourhispanicvoices.com ... Replace AT with @ and there are no spaces in the email address.