Well there are a lot of things going on in the news today with some person from Arkansas I think, but I found these poll numbers from some group James Carville founded, Democracy Corps. I know, I know it's partisan, but there are some interesting things that might transcend some obvious push-polling wording. I don't know, I'm very new to reading and analyzing polls like this, so some discussion about them would be great. Without further ado, here are the numbers!
First off, we take the big question: "if the election for President were held today and
the candidates were Democrat Barack Obama, Republican John McCain, or Libertarian Party
candidate Bob Barr, for whom would you vote: Republican John McCain, Democrat Barack
Obama or Libertarian Party candidate Bob Barr? "
Barack Obama................................................................44
Lean Barack Obama........................................................1
John McCain...................................................................46
Lean John McCain...........................................................1
Bob Barr...........................................................................3
Lean Bob Barr..................................................................0
(Other candidate).............................................................0
Lean (Other candidate)....................................................0
(Undecided).....................................................................4
Total Barack Obama.....................................................46
Total John McCain........................................................47
Total Bob Barr................................................................3
Total (Other candidate)..................................................0
Barr polling this high won't hold, but aside from that the data is not at all different from what we are getting from other, less partisan polls. If you look at the sampling, the way these respondents voted in '04 is perhaps skewed more to the republican side than the results of that election were:
In the 2004 election for president, did you vote for
Democrat John Kerry or Republican George Bush?
Total
Democrat John Kerry......................................................41
Republican George Bush................................................55
(Ralph Nader)..................................................................-
(Other candidate).............................................................1
(Don't know/Refused).......................................................3
the results in '04?
about 56-43.5 bush over kerry.
Ok, so that is my piece on the hard numbers, the ones we can look at and say "oh my it's a close race". Again, I don't know anything about polling, and I don't know anything about sample size and even less about polling practice. But if you look at the other questions in this survey, you start to see why Barack Obama can for real win in November.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling his job as President?
Total
Strongly approve.............................................................18
Somewhat approve.........................................................20
Somewhat disapprove....................................................11
Strongly disapprove........................................................46
(Don't know/refused)........................................................5
Total approve................................................................38
Total disapprove...........................................................57
Approve - disapprove..................................................-19
Good numbers, right?
it gets better, when asked to rate the validity of a statement's accuracy, respondents answered that the statement "John McCain Supports George Bush's policies" describes McCain Very well or well 70% of the time, while only 25% say it does not represent him well. The tying of McCain to Bush is working!
Variations on the theme: (yes-no)
John McCain represents 'more of the same': 59-35
McCain will bring the right type of change: 44-53
Barack Obama has good judgement: 55-40
Barack Obama is NOT ready to lead: 43-54
The rest of them stem from not knowing enough about Obama, so with time, and more exposure and campaigning and maybe more bad judgement on McCain's part (this could be asking a lot... oh wait) NC will be a deep shade of Carolina blue.
Also very good news from the same poll:
Thinking about the election for U.S. Senate in November, if the general election for U.S.
Senate were held today, and the candidates were Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican
Elizabeth Dole, for whom would you vote -- Democrat Kay Hagan or Republican Elizabeth
Dole?
Total
Kay Hagan......................................................................48
Lean Kay Hagan..............................................................2
Elizabeth Dole.................................................................43
Lean Elizabeth Dole.........................................................1
(Undecided).....................................................................6
Total Kay Hagan............................................................50
Total Elizabeth Dole......................................................45
the DSCC's dolla bills are really paying off
But maybe these polls are bullshit? NC is still going blue!