I have been using the Intrade markets to track the Presidential election for most of the year. I recorded the values on a state by state basis near the beginning of August and then again on the Saturday (today) following the completion of both conventions. I did not record the values immediately following the Democratic convention.
A few things are notable, most important I suppose, is that the resulting Electoral College tallies are unchanged at 311-227 in favor of Obama.
It appears that McCain’s choice of Palin, which is the most if not only notable development in the Republican convention, has as is widely speculated raised the enthusiasm level among some of his previously downtrodden supporters. Both candidates in my view of the markets saw a general strengthening of their bases.
The real story if viable is seen in the battleground states. Prior to the conventions, the Blue battlegrounds tallied 101 Electoral College votes and the Red battlegrounds tallied 76 EVs by my filter. Immediately post conventions, two of the Red battlegrounds have been taken off the table (Alaska & South Dakota) therefore the battleground tally is now Blue 101 Red 70.
There appears to have been movement toward McCain in some of the other battlegrounds and movement towards Obama in others. Where movement toward McCain in Red battlegrounds or movement towards Obama in Blue battlegrounds was the case in the majority of instances, there were some instances where the movement was in the direction of the candidate trailing in that state. Again, to reiterate, no EVs have yet changed columns on Intrade based on the initial trading following the conventions.
The Blue battleground states where McCain appears to have improved against Obama’s lead are Michigan, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia. The Red battleground states where Obama has improved against McCain’s lead are Florida and North Carolina. Note that the Blue Red designations are assigned based on the current Intrade leader, not historic election results.
So in the "given" columns, I estimate that Obama retains his 210 EV and McCain has improved his "given" numbers at this point from 151 to 157. In both cases it appears to me that these given numbers are generally stronger now than prior to the conventions.
Not factoring in all the fundamental variables which conventional wisdom obviously thinks favors Obama, that leaves us with the states noted above as candidates for some of the fiercest fighting over the next two months.
My assessment is that Obama will win the Blue battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Iowa and New Hampshire bringing his tally to 242 but at this point McCain, again in my view, has no real assurance of holding any of the Red battlegrounds therefore he is still stuck at 157.
I identify 9 Blue battlegrounds in total of which I have already noted I believe 3 will shortly come off of the table leaving just 6 which also happens to be the number of Red battlegrounds remaining.
The remaining Blue battlegrounds are Colorado, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia and New Mexico is looking more and more safe for Obama.
The remaining Red battlegrounds are Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina and North Dakota.
59 more days till the votes are counted! It's time for a second wind...
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