It’s finally ‘game on’ for the next 59 days. And then it will be down to the ultimate ‘game on’ during that day itself (Nov. 4).
Besides the obvious things that Obama/Biden have in their favor – like being on the right side of the issues and history; There is a day by day, by day, advantage that will simply grind away and eventually make the difference for Obama/Biden.
Between the four adults that comprise the two Democratic Party principle couples, there is abundantly more energy, intelligence, charisma, stamina and just general "good people" traits; than there is amongst John McCain, Cindy McCain, Sarah Palin and Todd Palin.
The sheer numbers of high energy local campaign appearances (and therefore local evening news coverage) that Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Joe Biden and Jill Biden can accomplish in the next 60 days is enormous.
The numbers of similar high-energy, but workmanlike appearances that the other 4 adults can accomplish is likely to be far fewer. McCain and company COULD make up some of this difference, if they had more $$ for advertising than Obama. But that’s not the case.
The marathon aspects of the campaign vastly favor the Democrats.
And then there is Nov. 4.
Hard to tell how big of difference there will be in the level of voter enthusiasm, in the quantity and quality of the ground game, and in the intelligent use of GOTV resources. But you have to believe that Obama can at the very least hold his own against the McCain/Rove/Repugs.
As was discussed endlessly this Spring, Primaries don’t translate to General, in terms of victories or numbers of votes. Still, it may be telling that the closest event, in terms of organizational test and in terms of sheer voter favorability that has occurred so far in 2008 is Super Tuesday. At that point, both Obama and McCain had genuine, tough opposition in the battle for votes. There were 19 contests that day that the Democrats and Repugs shared in common. Of those 19 in-common contests, Obama won 11 against the field of Dems (HRC)....and McCain won 8 against the field of Repugs (Romney and Huckabee).....
More striking is that fact that in those 19 contests, Obama pulled a total of 7.9 million votes, McCain half of that at 4.0 million.
I look forward the excellence of the Obama organization and the energy of his supporters bringing good things over the next two months.