A quick, early Sunday morning version of my Tracking Poll Crack diary that I've been doing the past few days.
Well Rasmussen is out this morning and the news is not good, folks. McCain has pulled into a tie with Obama, with a great night of polling that represents his highest number since the eve of the Democratic convention, and that (more significicantly) finally breaks through his ceiling of 46 points, where he'd been stalled for weeks.
Obama meanwhile holds steady at 48, just off his peak.
Some ideas about what this could mean, and forecasts about the Gallup, on the flip.
Ok, here are my conjectures on the nightly Rassmussen:
Day Avg. of prev. Eves Estimate of that Eve
25 O48 M45 O41 M52
26 O46 M46 O47 M46
27 O46 M47 O50 M43
28 O47 M47 O50 M46
29 O49 M45 O47 M46
30 O49 M45 O50 M46
31 O49 M46 O50 M46
01 O49 M46 O53 M43
02 O51 M45 O48 M46
03 O50 M45 O49 M46
04 O50 M45 O48 M47
05 O48 M46 O49[48] M46√
06 O49[48] M46√ O48[49] M50[46]
07 O48[49] M48[46]?O49? ?M48?
08 ?O49? ?M48?
For days I had been predicting equilibrium at O49 M46. I still think it's coming but it will be at least M47 until last night's big number rolls off the board.
I wonder if last night saw a Rasmussen readjustment, as they are wont to do, on the basis of new Republican/Democrat spread numbers?
Ok, on to Gallup.
Day Avg. of prev. Eves Estimate of that Eve
25 O45 M45 O45 M47
26 O44 M46 O45 M41
27 O45 M44 O54 M38
28 O48 M42 O48 M44
29 O49 M41 O46 M41
30 O49 M41 O51 M41
31 O48 M42 O50 M46
01 O49 M43 O49 M39
02 O50 M42 O48 M43
03 O49 M43 O49 M43
04 O49 M42 O48√ M46[47]
05 O48√ M44[45] O44[48] M45√
06 O47[48]M45√ ?O46? ?M45?
07 ?O46? ?M45? ?O47? ?M44?
08 ?O46? ?M45? ?O47? ?M44?
09 ?O47? ?M44?
Yesterday I set out a few more days worth of predictions for Gallup to take it too to where I expect it to fall into equilbrium, barring any unexpected events on the trail. I'll keep those the same here. Note that these don't expect any bump for McCain's number--and I didn't expect it in the Rasmussen either. Let's see if I'm right--will update this diary this PM when Gallup comes in.