John McCain has realized a modest bounce in the polls after he and the GOP spent most of 4 days at their convention lying about Barack Obama's record and smearing the Democratic nominee's policy positions and work as a community organizer.
Even though the national daily tracking polls put the race somewhere between a tie and McCain up by 3 points, looking at state polling information gives us a far different picture.
Follow me over the fold and let's have a gander at the Electoral College map.
Here is an interactive map. It (should be) changeable from within this diary.
(map courtesy of electionreferee.com)
<iframe frameBorder='0' src='http://www.electionreferee.com/flash/usa_ElectionReferee.html' style='width: 537px; height: 610px'></iframe>
As you can see, (click on Obama, McCain, or tossup, then on the states, they change colors!) this map gives Barack Obama a 200 to 189 lead in Electoral College votes with 149 votes in the toss up column. I place 64 more votes from the toss up column into the Obama column, those from the states of New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. These 64 votes would give Obama a 264 to 189 lead, six EV's short of the needed threshold of 270.
The 64
New Hampshire is a state the GOP believes it can pick off. McCain was ahead in a few polls at the beginning of the race, but this race has started to lean more and more towards Obama. In addition, Bob Barr just qualified for the ballot in New Hampshire thereby siphoning votes from McCain. IMO, due to Barr and the influx of more progressive minded suburban and exurban voters into southern New Hampshire, New Hampshire goes Obama.
Michigan hasn't gone republican since 1988. In this economy, with unemployment in Michigan at 8.5% in July and a loss of 49,000 jobs since January, we win in Michigan.
Both Wisconsin and Iowa have consistently polled outside of the margin of error. In Iowa, 538 gives Obama an almost 9 point lead and electoral vote dot com gives him a 15 point lead. In Wisconsin, the Republicans haven't won since 1984, and 538 puts Obama almost 10 points ahead. Hardly tossups.
Obama has a 9 point lead in New Mexico. Furthermore, Clinton won it by 9 in '92 and 7 in '96 and Gore won it in 2000. It went to Bush in 2004 by less than 1% among questions of voter fraud, but it's going to Obama in 2008.
Pennsylvania has been polling out of the margin of error, helped in part by the addition of tens of thousands of new Democratic voters. 538 puts it at 52 - 44 percent Obama. But, movement to the Democratic Party in the Philadelphia suburbs and exurbs may push this race further towards the Democratic Party.
This always helps, too:
27 percent of Republican primary voters didn’t just tell pollsters they would defect from their party’s standard-bearer; they went to the polls, gas prices be damned, to vote against Mr. McCain.
And while it was superfluous in determining that party’s nominee, 220,000 Pennsylvania Republicans (out of their total turnout of 807,000) were moved to cast ballots for Mike Huckabee or, more numerously, Ron Paul.
These 6 states, with their 64 electoral votes, in my analysis, are "turnout states." The forces on the ground, in terms of economy, social leanings, etc. put the state in the Democratic column. If we can turn out our voters in these states, including the millions of new voters who joined the rolls this cycle, we'll win them fairly comfortably. They have a strong base of Democratic Voters and we will turn them out. They aren't the real battlegrounds.
The 85 - The Battlegrounds:
Following my analysis above, giving Obama the 64 EV's from the turnout states, Obama stands at 264 EV's to McCain's 189, six EV's short of the threshold to become president.
That leaves the states of Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida as my pure toss ups. These states have a total of 85 electoral votes. IMO, these states are where we will win the election, with the possibility of a blowout.
We shouldn't even be talking about Nevada. Harry Reid, the esteemed Senate Majority Leader, should be able to deliver this state with a big fat bow tie, but that's another story. Clinton took it by 2% in 1992 and 1% in 1996 but it went Bush by+2.6 points in 2004 and Bush +3.5 in 2000. My gut tells me that McCain wins it in a squeaker, but hopefully I'm wrong.
Colorado has been trending Democratic for the past several election cycles. It went Clinton in 92, but the GOP has taken it in the last 3 presidential elections. However, in 2004, Colorado elected DemocratsKen Salazar to the U.S. Senate and Bill Ritter governor. Democrats control the Colorado General Assembly, too. Polls also consistently put Mark Udall, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate way ahead.
Nate Silver at 538 is calling it a tossup, advantage Obama.
we certainly have a wide mix of polling in Colorado, with no fewer than seven firms having released numbers within the past couple weeks. It all points toward a toss-up, perhaps just slightly tilting toward Barack Obama.
Based on the numbers and on the direction the electorate seems to be going in Colorado, I'm giving it to Obama.
Missouri went Clinton both times in the 90's, but went Bush in 2000 and 2004. It's been polling close, within about 5-10 percent this summer. Polling has been consistently the same in Rasmussen. They also found this, which I found extremely interesting and telling:
McCain is currently viewed favorably by 59% of Missouri voters, Obama by 53%.
I don't know how McCain could be viewed favorable by more people. I find that telling. My gut tells me that it will be close. For the purposes of this, I'm giving it to McCain.
Ohio. Both campaigns are salivating over Ohio's 20 EV's and bus touring around the state like their following the Grateful Dead. It went Democratic in the 1990's but went to the GOP in 2000 and 2004. Obama enjoys a lead according to both 538 and electoral vote dot com, albeit only by a point or two.
Conditions on the ground lead me to believe that Obama will pick this up. Unemployment is at 6.1% in Ohio, a 16 year high. In addition, Ohio is trending Democratic. In 2006, it elected Democrat Ted Strickland Governor and was able to get rid of it's much maligned Republican Secretary of State for Democrat Jennifer Brunner. It'll be very close but, Obama is going to take Ohio.
Virginia has been trending Democratic for the past several election cycles. It elected Democratic Senator Jim Webb in 2006 over favorite son George Allen, and will elect Democratic Governor Mark Warner over another former governor, Republican Jim Gilmore. Rassmussen puts Warner 26 points ahead. The presidential race is much closer. 538 is giving Obama a 1.3% lead. Basically, a dead heat. My sense is that the DC suburbs and exurbs spreading out into the Virginia hinterland will finally swing Virginia in a Presidential election. I'll be watching Virginia Congressional Districts 10 and 11 in N. Virginia. If the awesome, if perpetual underdog, Judy Feder can keep it close or even pick off Frank Wolf's seat in Va-10 and/or if Gerry Connolly can pick off Tom Davis' old seat in Va-11, Virginia will go to Obama. And I think it will.
McCain was up by 5-10 in Florida as the campaigns transitioned out of the primaries and into the general election. Obama has tightened it up to 48%- 46% according to Rassmussen. Since 2000, Florida and it's 27 Electoral College votes are the source of heartbreaks and heartburn for countless political junkies and voters alike. 538 gives McCain 1.9% lead. It's going to be a close call once again. My gut says McCain, but his veep choice may end up losing him votes in Florida and giving it to Obama.
Based on the above analysis, I come to a total of 306 electoral votes for Obama and 232 for McCain for an Obama victory.
The Suprises:
In 2006, the political landscape was similar to today. Voters were angry with the status quo and wanted change. Democrats picked up 31 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. Polling from that time lead analysts to believe that Democrats would win control of the House, but that the Senate was too far out of our reach. With the help of change minded voters and a macaca moment, Democrats took control of the Senate by wining an amazing 6 seats. It is possible that Obama can turn some races that in 2004 would be out of touch. States such as N. Dakota, or N. Carolina, Indiana or even Georgia are close enough that with just a bit of movement, we can win.
Play around with the map and change a couple close races, and you can see how out of hand it could get for the Rupublicans. The 306 to 232 number I come up with gives Florida, Missouri, and Nevada and their 43 EV's to the GOP. These could shift. Looking at how close state polls are in states long considered Republican strongholds, states such as Montana, N. Dakota, Georgia, N. Carolina, and I can see how a landslide is still possible. 538 gives the chance of a landslide, measured at 375 electoral college votes, an 18.57% chance of happening. All things considered this is a big percentage, almost 1 in 5.
** If you've read this far you know this: We have to work for this. We cannot take anything for granted and nothing is a give in. Work like we're 20 points down and out of cash. Donate. Canvass. Educate yourself and those around you about how vitally important this election is. Do something. Now. We can win this.
One voice can change a room. And if one voice can change a room,
it can change a city; and if it can change a city, it can change a state;
and if it can change a state, it can change a nation;
and if it can change a nation, it can change the world.
One voice can change the world.
Barack Obama 12-9-07