John McCain will get a temporary convention bounce which will draw him into a tie with Obama (or even a slight lead) for the next couple of days before the bounce goes away and Obama retakes a 5-8 point lead which will be Obama's to lose, maintain, or expand depending on the debates. And John McCain has in my view wrapped up Oklahoma. Heck he's wrapped up Alabama, Mississippi, Idaho, Wyoming, Alaska, Utah, Nebraska, and Kansas too. I even think McCain is going to win Texas, South Carolina, Arizona South Dakota, Tennessee, Kentucky, and probably Georgia, Arkansas, and West Virginia as well.
And if the election was today, Obama still wins the electoral college vote.
John Kerry received 252 electoral college votes in 2004. Conventional wisdom said that if McCain were to pick off any state that Kerry won in 2004, then that state would be either Pennsylvania, Michigan, or New Hampshire. But Obama polls much better in Pennsylvania than Kerry ever did, and has had solid leads in Michigan and New Hampshire the entire time. While you should not take anything for granted, Obama's chances of winning all 252 electoral votes that Kerry earned probably stands at well over 90%. (Nate has it around 60% but I think it's much higher.)
Next is Iowa. Iowa went for Gore in 2000 but barely for Bush in 2004 but has since become more progressive. Obama does great here and McCain poorly, even among Republicans. Polls have consistently shown Obama up double digits in Iowa and McCAin has basically conceded the state. Add 7 more for Obama.
Next up on the list is New Mexico with 5 electoral college votes. Like Iowa, it went for Gore in 2000 but slightly for Bush in 2004. And it will go Obama comfortably in 2008 because of the strength of our congressional candidates, the strength of the Governor, and Obama's success with Hispanic vcters. So that's 264.
As of now I can't guarantee that Obama will get more than 264 electoral college votes but barring a major catastrophe, he won't get less than 264 electoral college votes and the McCain camp knows this. Therefore, the McCain knows that it has to hold onto the *following:
- Ohio
- Colorado
- Nevada
- Virginia
- Montana
- Florida
- North Carolina
- North Dakota
- Indiana
- Missouri.
* The McCain camp can lose just Montana or just North Dakota but not both.
So these are the ten states that this election comes down to. All that Obama needs to do is win 1 of them or the combo of Montana and North Dakota. (Note - Nevada has 5 electoral college votes so a tie goes to the House where he should win.)
So that means Obama is strongly positioned to win 264 electoral votes to McCain's 157 with 117 electoral votes undecided.
It is conceivable that McCain will win all 10 of these states but it is also conceivable that Obama will win all 10 of these states. MCcain needs 113 of 117 while we need only 5 of 117. All's good.
In Ohio, voters just threw the Republicans out of the governorship, the Sec. of State, and a Senate seat in 2006. Senator Sherrod Brown is more progressive than Senator Obama. When all is said and done we should win here. If we do, McCain's done.
In Colorado, we just elected a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator and should easily elect another Democratic Senator. The state is trending blue and having the convention in Denver should help Obama come Nov. 4. I like our chances here.
In Nevada, McCain favors dumping waste in Yucca mountain and Palin's insult of Harry Reid won't fly here. This is a tossup and McCain will have to spend millions here to defend it.
Virginia is poised to turn blue. We have a popular governor, just elected a Democratic Senator, and Senator Warner is a shoo in to win a Senate seat in 2008. The state has grown more progressive by the day and now may be the time it turns over from red to blue.
Our chances in Montana are 50-50. WE have a popular Governor and Bob Barr will siphon off votes from McCain here. Clinton carried this state in 1992 when Montana libertarians voted for Perot and they'll do the same for Bob Barr as a matter of principal.
Florida is 6th on this list of swing states and this is where McCain's choice of wingnut Sarah Palin most likely helps us the most. Obama has already made inroads with young Cubans. Palin will do two things. First, she'll turn off moderates in the I-40 corridor and second she'll galvanize a heavy Jewish turnout in favor of Obama because of her anti-semitic associations with dominionist sects. This will offset the gains MCcain will make in the rural Northern areas.
If Obama has not won any of the six states above, it is very unlikely that he will have won North Carolina, Indiana, North Dakota, or Missouri although any of them can be picked off with the right kind of targeted campaigning. If Obama wins by 6+ points nationally, then he takes these 4 states. If the margin is 4 points nationally he probably picks off 1, perhaps 2. If he wins by 1-2 points nationally, he gets none.
As of now Obama could still max out at 381 electoral college votes while McCain's max appears to be 274. So all is good, keep your chins up and make sure you convince 10 undecided people to vote for Obama in November by using the most effective form of advertising of all time -- Word of mouth.