Obama campaign manager David Plouffe stated we shouldn't worry about the national polls. This article tends to give credence to that line of thinking:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
Take a leap with me.
An interesting excerpt from the article:
Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September's first Gallup Tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including "leaners") from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll's two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents.
It seems to me as if the polls are 'spiking the punch bowl' and trying to get everyone drunk off the results. I would imagine dramatic swings in poll results when you change the party identification of the respondents in a dramatic fashion. Later in the piece, it's indicated that there are generally swings in the amount of Dems vs Repubs questioned, which is fine (You take the pulse of different areas of the country, it's to be expected).
What I do find curious is that Gallop, CBS, and USA Today all take a simultaneous swing to a more "Republican composition" right after the RNC has their convention. Now, I'm sure these polls all work independently of each other (of course), so what other possible explanations could there be for such a shift, besides collusion, that is? The article goes on to state that Independents must be claiming their party again after McCain gave such a rousing speech. But this is where I'd have to inject a dose of healthy skepticism.
After I put on my tin foil conspiracy hat and thought about for a while, it occurred to me what underlying line of attack is being propagated. The Republicans have stated it in their speeches ad nauseum since their convention and continue to do so. They're going after: Community Organizers.
One of the Obama Campaign's greatest strengths is its ground game, with volunteers in all 50 states, populated by community organizers and filled with enthusiasm for their candidate (especially after Barack gave his speech at the DNC). Everything that McCain and his campaign have done since then (besides pander to women), has been designed to siphon away that enthusiasm, to deride the work of the volunteers, make them feel inconsequential, in essence, to steal your joy.
In order to make that bull$#!! work though, they need some "concrete" evidence, despite the fact that Democratic voter registration is outpacing its Republican counterparts. Now, it would be truly irresponsible for me to say that all three of the polls mentioned above have intentionally manipulated the methodology to give McCain a bigger bump and dampen the enthusiasm for Obama...uh, so I wont;) But you all have your own personal anecdotes of talking to Republicans, Moderates, and other Independents who are sick and tired of what's been going on in this country, are ready for a change, and believe Obama is the best man for the job. So, remain encouraged, keep working, keep donating, vote Obama/Biden, and just enjoy the rest of the Kabuki theater as history is made.
That's all I got.