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Good news first: Crazy Jack Davis won't have his name on a ballot this fall.

Bad news: neither will Orange to Blue candidate Jon Powers.

Davis and Powers both lost tonight, to dark horse candidate Alice Kryzan.

I don't think anyone in the district (which stretches from the western suburbs of Rochester to Buffalo and Niagara Falls) ever expected tonight's results, which found Kryzan winning with 41% to 36% for Powers and 23% for Davis.

I sure didn't - though I did correctly predict in a comment on Monday that the intense barrage of viciously negative advertising Davis was flinging at Powers would work in Kryzan's favor.

My fear was that Kryzan and Powers would split the anti-Davis vote and hand the nomination to Davis. Instead, voters turned not only on Davis but on Powers.

Kryzan sealed the deal with an ad that started running a week or so ago, showing two men who looked like Davis and Powers fighting in a park, with Kryzan striding in to say, "Take it somewhere else, boys!"

Here's the ad: what?

Davis is off the ballot completely. Not only did he fail at his Lieberman attempt to create his own third-party line, he also didn't get the Independence Party endorsement.

Powers remains on the ballot on the Working Families line, but he'll be expected to throw his support to Kryzan.

She faces off against Chris Lee, the Buffalo businessman who's been selected by the Republicans to take the seat that's been occupied for the last five terms by the super-odious Tom Reynolds.

And now Alice Kryzan needs our help to ramp up for the next eight weeks.

She may be low-profile, but she's a solid Democrat with a sterling environmental record. Plus, there'd be another woman in the New York delegation, right next to the district of the awesome Louise Slaughter.

But she can't win against Lee the same way she won against Powers and Davis - she'll need to be on the air in two TV markets, Rochester and Buffalo, straight through from now until November.

You know the drill: Donate!

(Preferably in the five minutes before this diary gets scrolled off by several dozen more Palin diaries...)

Originally posted to ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:29 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  OK, that WAS unexpected (5+ / 0-)

    Sorry to hear that Powers won't be the nominee, but congratulations to Kryzan.

    I never thought Davis had much of a chance, but still . . . interesting.

    I have no idea what this means against Lee.  Any ideas?

    "So, please stay where you are. Don't move and don't panic. Don't take off your shoes! Jobs is on the way."

    by wader on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:32:33 PM PDT

    •  Nobody really knows yet (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wader, second alto

      Neither Lee nor Kryzan has much in the way of name recognition, especially over here on the Rochester side of the district, 70 miles from their home bases in Buffalo.

      Kryzan certainly benefited from being on the outside while Davis bashed Powers and Powers tried to fight back.

      Voter reg in the district favors the Republicans by about 4%, but this is a bad year for Republicans here - this is a blue state at the top of the ticket, Reynolds left under a cloud, and...well...nobody really knows yet.

      Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

      by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:35:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rochester was comparitively like an oasis of (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Super Grover

        culture to me, relative to nearby areas, even.  At least, during the mid-80s.

        It's been exciting to see deeper blue colour seeping deeper into NY-29 and NY-26 (essentially, colouring my drive from home to Rochester, up through Corning) since the last election - Massa's race was my sentimental favorite at the time.

        Time to send our NY-26 candidate some support . . .

        "So, please stay where you are. Don't move and don't panic. Don't take off your shoes! Jobs is on the way."

        by wader on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:47:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This area got gerrymandered to hell in 2000 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sardonyx, wader, jabu

          Reynolds was able to carve out a district that looked like safe R for a generation. The odd NY-29 district, which extends from Appalachia-on-the-PA-state-line up here to the suburbs of Rochester, was a gift to Amo Houghton, who wanted to retire in 2002 from a "Southern Tier" district, and did. Louise's NY-28 was a mega-gerrymander aimed at keeping the Ds in the city of Rochester and the Ds in North Buffalo and the Tonawandas away from those safe R districts.

          The result is that we have four districts divvying up Monroe County (the fourth is NY-25, the Syracuse-based district from which Jim Walsh is retiring), and only one Congresswoman (Louise) from the Rochester area.

          With better D representation in Albany, we should be able to change that in 2012...

          Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

          by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:50:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  That's what always happens (0+ / 0-)

        when one candidate goes negative on another in a three-way (or more) race.  Both the attacker and the attacked suffer, the candidate on the sidelines always is the big beneficiary.

        A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves. ~Edward R. Murrow

        by ActivistGuy on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:50:02 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Now's the time time to make a plan (0+ / 0-)

          to stop Crazy Jack from screwing things up again in 2010.

          Can we get him committed?

          Democracy consists of choosing your dictators, after they've told you what you think it is you want to hear. - Alan Corenk

          by Eugenian on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 11:29:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  And I say we throw our support to Alice. (6+ / 0-)

      Let's not let this stop us from taking this seat.

      •  Condolences to Jon... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        ...and his supporters, who fought a hell of a campaign against a nutcase with more money than Croesus.

        You literally couldn't turn on the TV in the last couple of weeks without seeing a Davis attack ad in every commercial break.

        It's pretty amazing that Powers did as well as he did against that barrage, and the voters were very clear in their disapproval of Davis and his lies.

        At least Davis is gone now, and we have a real Dem remaining in the race to rally behind.

        I'm glad I'm in NY-29 next door (go, Eric Massa!) - I don't know what I would have done in November had it ended up with Davis against Lee on the ballot.

        Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

        by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:41:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What happens with Jon's WFP nomination? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        I thought Swing State Project was being far too precipitate in predicting that this would split the vote enough to give the seat to Lee.

        But does Jon have an obligation to continue campaigning as the WFP nominee? Is he precluded from endorsing Alice?

        © sardonyx; all rights reserved

        by sardonyx on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 10:10:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He'll remain on the ballot... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          ...but is under no obligation to campaign actively. I'd expect that after a good night's (well-deserved) sleep, he'll endorse Kryzan in the next day or two and will encourage his supporters to vote for her in November.

          Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

          by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 10:13:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  heh (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ipsos, second alto

    well that's an interesting lesson in campaign advertising and messaging.

    •  Yep... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sardonyx, allep10, second alto

      (and I love the sig line, btw)

      I don't know how much from this race can really be applied anywhere else. Crazy Jack Davis is truly off his rocker - he spent something over $2 million of his own money to try to win this thing, after getting the nomination in 2006 and losing to Tom Reynolds in a fairly close race.

      This time around, Davis threw the kitchen sink at Powers. I'm not sure ANYONE had a chance against that kind of nonstop barrage of negative advertising.

      Kryzan had no choice but to go super-positive. I think she won this one simply by being not-Davis and not-Powers, and I have no idea how this turns around for the general.

      Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

      by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:45:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Did Davis ignore Kryzan entirely? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        If so, she seems to have lucked out. Jack clearly discounted her. I'm surprised he wasn't spending some bucks to poll the race...or maybe he did early on, and didn't realize how the ads were changing the playing field. Serves him right.

        © sardonyx; all rights reserved

        by sardonyx on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 10:12:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nobody expects the Alice Kryzan! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sardonyx, Eugenian

          She was so low-profile through most of the race that Davis thought he was in a two-person race.

          That, or maybe Davis just couldn't wrap his old-fashioned head around the idea of a woman (!) being serious competition...

          Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

          by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 10:14:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  How did Hillary do in this district in the... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ipsos, Eugenian

    primary?  Maybe she would be helpful to Alice

    Obama/Biden'08 Winning Change for America and the Democratic Party

    by dvogel001 on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:40:40 PM PDT

    •  She owned the district, of course (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Western NY loves her. I hope she'll be out in support of Alice - and of Eric Massa in NY-29 and Dan Maffei in NY-25, turning the region blue three seats at a time!

      Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

      by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:43:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tell Obama..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ipsos, jabu drop everything and hire her ad team.

    If you are spending time denying accusations and repeating your accusers' own words in your denial, you are losing. -- Tucker Eskew, Republican Operative

    by Bensdad on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:45:20 PM PDT

    •  The amazing thing is, the ad didn't run that much (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bensdad, Jyrinx

      Maybe it aired more over in Buffalo, where the district is anchored, but here in Rochester, I've seen it maybe a half-dozen times in the last week or two, against literally thousands of Davis ads and a fair number of Powers spots.

      Sarah Palin = Tonya Harding with a speechwriter (h/t Barry Crimmins)

      by ipsos on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:47:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I little goes a long way ... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bensdad, ipsos, jabu

        ... especially if the airwaves are already saturated and you're making a strong and highly desirable contrast.

        Denny Crane: But if he supports a law, and then agrees to let it lapse … then that would make him …

        Shirley Schmidt: A Democrat.

        by Jyrinx on Tue Sep 09, 2008 at 09:50:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  hello, EMILY? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I hope EMILY's list (which seems to have overlooked Kryzan so far) will swiftly endorse her.  That would certainly help in terms of fundraising for the next two months.

  •  I've seen this before (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sardonyx, Super Grover

    This is similar to what happened when Russ Feingold first ran for US Senate in 1992.  He was running a distant third in a 3 way primary.  He had little money, and no name recognition.  The top two candidates, on the other hand, were running neck and neck in the polls, and both had lots of money.  Then, right before primary day, the least progressive of the 3 candidates took a lead, and the guy in second place realized that he wasn't going to win.  He was so mad at the guy who was in the lead, that he told his supporters to vote for Feingold instead of for him.

    The rest is history.  Feingold won the primary,  beat the incumbent Senator, and (fortunately) is still serving.

  •  Jack Davis won it forKryzan (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    InternetJunkie, ipsos, jabu

    Davis, using his own money, has been throwing up dozens of spurious ads against Jon Powers.  Powers hasn't answered them, at least not on TV.  

    I think many voters became unsure about Power and his chances in the general but were not going to vote for crazy Jack (who runs every two years and loses).

    It is a shocker here.  

    There is nothing wrong with the progressive "Working Families" line, but if Powers does throw his support to Kryzan, I'll do the same.

    It's really too bad.

  •  Pissed (0+ / 0-)

    I have had a gut feeling for the past few weeks that Jon was going to lose this thing.  There is no doubt that if Crazy Jack hadn't been carving him up every day on the air and in mass mailings, Jon would be the nominee right now.

    As for Alice Kryzon, expect an October surprise when Lee pulls the Love Canal connection out of the bag.  

  •  She is a Green Democrat that lives it (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    sorely and desperately needed in the Buffalo area.

    See her page :

    That is her strength,a champion for the Great Lakes,the agricultural surrounds to Buffalo and a 21st Century plan for a Green America to revitalize and reinvent our country. Conservatism has been debased and debunked by the republican Party. .

    We need her genuine effort on the environmental front with the tough and needed work to weave  economic crises and environmental urgencies  into working partnerships. That is the  genuine, not fake posturing conservatism. The kind we need, not the one that chokes us out of our future.

    from the Jefferson Airplane, "Go Ask Alice....when she is 10 feet tall!  SHE SHOWED THEM HOW TO DO IT WITH CLASS.  30 year Democrat means she is a life long Democrat. That shuffled well in Buffalo.

    To strive,to seek,to find, and not to yield. 1843 high school motto, Rhode Island.

    by Pete Rock on Wed Sep 10, 2008 at 10:44:51 PM PDT

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