Lost in all the hubbub about the Republican convention and the Palin pick is McCain's biggest misstep in this election to date. No, it is not the picking of Sarah Palin as his running mate...it's the fact that the Republicans have ceded the central theme of this election to the Obama campaign.
For months, Obama has been running on change and the Bush/McCain direction of more of the same. And for months, McCain had been running on the theme that change is risky, and not nearly as important as experience. The 180 degree came at the convention, with McCain saying "me too" and asserting that he can bring about change better than Obama can.
Of course, the problem is that when you concede that your opponent's message should be, and is, the central theme of the election, it never works, because you've given up on a clear contrast or choice for the voters. Two elections in the past two decades demonstrate this point: 1992 and 2004.
In 1992, Bill Clinton famously had the message of "it's the economy, stupid." They stayed on message relentlessly throughout the campaign. What's forgotten is the George H.W. Bush essentially admitted that the economy was having problems, and that he too felt our pain. The attempt to relate to the people's pain had astoundingly tone-deaf results:
"You cannot be president of the United States if you don't have faith. Remember Lincoln, going to his knees in times of trial and the Civil War and all that stuff. You can't be. And we are blessed. So don't feel sorry for — don't cry for me, Argentina. Message: I care." —speaking to employees of an insurance company during the 1992 New Hampshire primary
Of course, what most voters got out of that blundering statement was that, no, Bush did not care, and did not understand the concerns of working Americans at that time. To further the message of "me too," Bush went so far as to go to a grocery store to relate to those who had to buy their groceries every day, to understand their challenges. He ended up looking foolish as he was amazed at the modern technology known as the checkout scanner.
In 2004, from the moment John Kerry stepped on the convention stage in Boston to accept his party's nomination, he ceded the theme of the election when he stated "I'm John Kerry and I'm reporting for duty." Kerry essentially said "this election is about national security," something the Bush camp salivated over, because that's what they wanted all along.
It allowed them to Swift Boat Kerry on the war hero stories, but more importantly, demonstrate what they've been saying all along: we are the party of national security. We will protect you. Since 9/11, we've had no other attacks. You don't change horses in the middle of a war on terror. We will keep you safe.
When a clear contrast is given, voters make their choices on that contrast. For instance, in 1988, Michael Dukakis tried to make the election not about ideology, but about competence. That was the signature line from his convention speech. And for awhile, it worked, giving him a bounce in the polls.
Once George H.W. Bush's campaign said no, this campaign is all about ideology (crime=Willie Horton, national security=Dukakis in a tank, economy=no new taxes), the bounce eroded.
McCain may be riding high now, by acknowledging that he's for change too. But with 50+ days to go to the election, there is plenty of time to demonstrate the "original Maverick" hasn't been all that original in the past eight years.
Obama's campaign would do well to keep hammering away at the point. McCain has already given them a gift by acknowledging what this election is really about. Now Obama gets the chance to recast McCain's mesage for the smoke, mirrors, and lies that it is.