Is there anything he can't do?
I'm not sure about you, but reading fivethirtyeight.com is like a breath of fresh air every time the TM and the partisanship are choking me out.
Nate's latest piece is on the lipstick brou-ha-ha (that's right) and its longer term impact. Instead of focusing on the hesaidshesaid BS, he points out a few tidbits that will become clearer in the coming days.
First: this little mini-"scandal" has stopped the Palin/RNC momentum in its tracks. Second: it could be the beginning of Obama's dominating message from here to November.
From here:
My first reaction upon hearing Barack Obama's "lipstick on a pig" remark was that it was deliberate. Not a deliberate attempt to smear Sarah Palin per se, but a deliberate attempt to provoke exactly the sort of fanatical reaction that they have gotten from the Republicans.
This is something I never considered, but it makes sense. What was the rest of the line? Something about wrapping old fish in new paper and calling it change? If the McLame campaign didn't call him out on the lipstick line, surely they would have on the "old" jab. Obama was goading them into an overreaction which he could then use to accuse them of distractions.
Nate continues. The last week has been dictated by McCain - the Palin pick, the convention overriding the initial negative media, the "sexism" victim card play, etc - and he had all the momentum. Until now:
This takes everyone back down a notch, back down to the tedium and banality of partisan politics. It would be wishful thinking to call it a momentum-changer, but it may by default be a momentum-stopper. The convention/Palinmania phase of the news cycle -- a phase the Republicans clearly thought they were winning -- is now over.
Nate then moves on to one of his strengths: giving advice to the Obama campaign without sounding like it. He's a Democrat and supports Obama openly, but he does a good job of achieving balance in his analysis even as he is clear about who he supports. His suggestion? Define yourself as the bringer of solutions, not distractions.
While we don't know how the victim card game will play out, we do know that if the McCain campaign allows this to become an issues election, they will lose. They must keep it a petty, personal, swift-boat election. The problem for McCain is that the economy is the overriding issue for most voters, and its much more difficult to play personal politics to voters who are voting with their bank accounts.
Nate imagines (i.e. suggests) a line of argument for Obama:
My opponent's chief strategest just said, "this campaign isn't about the issues." Well, I've got news for you, America. The Republican Party is desperate. They are going to do anything to try and hold onto their power, because they know the damage they've done to our country, and they don't know how to fix it. They know that people are out of work, and they don't know how to help them. They know that people are dying because they don't have health insurance, and they don't know to save them. They know that families are struggling to put food on the table, and they know don't know how to provide for them.
So they're going to try and distract you, America, because that's the only thing they know how to do. They're going to try and scare you. They're going to try and tell you stories, instead of offering solutions. And yes, folks -- these are the same people that have been lying to you for the last eight years -- and they're going to lie to you again.
If he hammers it home repeatedly. Hammers and hammers and produces ads that are both negative and positive (i.e. 15 seconds of hitting McCain, 15 seconds of his plan), he will gain traction.
They may even consider changing the campaign slogan from "The Change We Need" to "Solutions, Not Distractions" to really hit it home.
Nate has the final point on this new messaging:
And the "distractions, not solutions" meme is something Obama is going to have to trot out anyway once the 527's (including very probably the reincarnation of Jeremiah Wright) really begin to hit.
Exactly. Why not begin the "distractions don't solve your problems" narrative now? That way, when the (even more) low ball attacks come out, the public will be somewhat immune to them, being able to recognize them for what they really are: bullshit.