Every State. Every race. Right here.
This is number 37 in a planned series of 50 entries between now and November, looking at each of the 50 states in terms of every race on that state's ticket--Presidential, Gubernatorial, Senate, House, State legislatures--the whole deck of cards! Special attention paid to identifying and promoting the most important contests per state.
Today, what happens in Vegas gets broadcasted on the Internets for the viewing pleasure of whoever wants to read it. Join me below for a look at the Ultimate Swing State of NEVADA!!!
But first, A NOTE ON THE LAST DIARY (South Carolina): When I post a poll, it usually gets about 100 responses if I’m lucky. Monday, I looked at the great sleeper candidates LINDA "WONDER WOMAN" KETNER and ROB "MY GENERATION’S CHESTY PULLER" MILLER, in SC-01 and -02, respectively. And I put up a poll with some of the sleeper pickup opportunities in Dixie.
And for the first time, I may have been freeped. I’m flattered.
As of this writing, 274 people have found my diary and put up a vote of confidence for Ketner, and 72 for Miller. And, apparently over the last 24 hours, another 70 eager partisans showed up and took LA-07 candidate DON CRAVINS from 2 votes to 76. There’s some serious netroots support out there for people who aren’t getting much attention in the blogosphere!
Now listen--if every one of you who voted for Ketner, Miller and Cravins goes over and donates whatever you can afford to either or allof them, then just maybe we'll see a "stunning upset"--or better yet, two or three of them, in the supposedly "solid red" states, and America will get some potential rock stars for the party come 2009. They're young, they're energetic, they could live longer than Thurmond did and become Committee chairs for decades, and we'll be able to say we helped them get their foot in the door. Wouldn't that be great? Go get 'em!
Linda Ketner: https://services.myngp.com/...
Rob Miller: https://services.myngp.com/...
Don Cravins:
https://secure.actblue.com/...
There’s a poll for WESTERN sleeper districts with today’s entry. I hope the results are similar today. Now, on to Nevada...
http://www.nationalatlas.com/...
About 70% of Nevada is in Clark County (the pointy end at the bottom, including Vegas); another 20% clustered around Reno, Sparks and Carson City in the obtuse angle halfway down on the west side; and the rest in Elko and the rest of the state, called the "cow counties". Clark county is heavily Democratic with an increasing latino presence; some of the "cow county" people shoot Democrats. Reno is traditionally Republican, but by a smaller margin with every election that passes.
BLOGS: Check out My Silver State for in depth bloggy goodness on all things Nevada.
http://www.mysilverstate.com/
PRESIDENT: : Neck and neck, and one of the eight "firewall" states that should claim about 60% of Obama’s attention between now and November (the other seven being VA, OH, MO, CO, IN, FL and NC), with 30% allocated to some of the 21 redder states where opportunity still exists, and 10% playing defense in the 21 bluer states won by Kerry, Gore or both, none of which have polled for McCain since Clinton conceded in June.
Nevada is the only one of the eight which, going to Obama on top of the Kerry/Gore 21, would not guarantee Obama the Presidency all by itself, but would tie the electoral college at 269 each.
It is also the only state that, in all of the last four Presidential elections, went to the declared winner with less than 51% of the vote. But it did go to the declared winner each time, twice for Clinton, twice for Scrappy Doo. The safe bet is that it will go down to the wire this time, too, unless early returns show Obama walking away with it, in which case Nevada will jump on the bandwagon and contribute to a blowout.
During the primaries, the result was...down to the wire! Obama actually won every county OTHER than Clark, which narrowly went to Clinton on the strength of the pro-Clinton latino vote, which tilts heavily toward Obama in the general. Obama narrowly lost the popular vote, but ended up getting more delegates. Also in the primary, McCain carried the state against the Ron Paul team, but they had to cancel the caucuses when more Paul than McCain delegates showed up. Tell me again which party is bitterly divided?
Obama should allocate about 4 days of campaigning to Nevada, including one day in Vegas rallying the base, two in suburban Clark County where the swing voters are, and one in the Reno area and perhaps Elko, narrowing what might otherwise be large McCain margins.
SENATE: None up this year. Harry Reid is up in 2010, and Ensign, the Gooper with the weird hair in 2012.
GOVERNORS AND OTHER STATEWIDE: Nothing up this year. Governor James "The Gibbon" Gibbons is in a slew of ethical scandals and may be required to step down in 2010, leaving the seat open. If we can win then, and swing and keep the State Senate, Democrats will be able to draw the district map to our satisfaction.
The Lt. Governor is also a Republican, but the Secretary of State, Treasurer, Controller and Attorney General are all Democrats. This state is still blue more often than not.
STATE LEGISLATURE:
Lower House: 27D, 15R, majority of 12. Easy hold.
Senate: 10D, 11R, deficit of 1, 1 flip needed to retake control. Very important, as this will be our last chance at this batch of Senate seats before the redistricting. On the other hand, this batch includes the three most rural districts, which are the least likely to flip. Nevada Democrats are concentrating on two suburban Vegas districts held by Republicans, and one Washoe district.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS:
District 1—Vegas. Shelley Berkley (Inc D) is safe.
http://www.berkleyforcongress.com/
District 2—Everything but most of Clark County. Jill Derby (D) v. Dean Heller (Inc R). This is a rematch of 2006, from when Derby narrowly lost the district as an open seat contest. Naturally, she’s expected to have a harder time of it going against an incumbent, but she’s polling better than expected and in a wave year with higher turnout due to the Presidential race, anything can happen.
One reason Nevada is so hard to guage is that every year, enough people move here from someplace else to form a statistically significant percentage of first-time voters.
It’s a close call between this one, the 3rd district and Obama, but I’m calling THIS race THE BIG ONE for 2008, because making a real race out of the district outside of Clark is likelier to drive up turnout for the state overall. Also, I want Derby to be encouraged to keep trying again and again until she makes it. Unlike, say, Lois Murphy, who disappointed us in the winnable PA-06, Derby is a smart campaigner and a good fit for the district, who may improve with tenacity and increased familiarity with voters. Remember, Newt got his butt kicked in three consecutive elections in what was then a safe Democratic district with a popular incumbent, but he kept coming back, and eventually won and changed the voting habits of a whole region. It’s an annoying story, but what worked for him can work for us, too, and so I tell that story to embattled challengers in presently "safe-red" districts all the time.
http://www.jillderby.com/
District 3—Dana Titus (D) v. Jon Porter (Inc R). Suburban Clark County, including Henderson, Boulder City and the outskirts of Vegas. Titus was the 2006 nominee for Governor, and a great campaigner with high energy. This district was drawn to be a swing district and, like NM-01, has stayed annoyingly and narrowly in GOP hands. This is the year that can change.
I picked the second as THE BIG ONE, but it was the closest of close calls, and reflects my belief that we can win both seats. Both districts are crucial to Congress, to Obama’s chances, and to our efforts to pick up a legislative majority in the state Senate. This is the district more likely to flip to the Democrats, but I’d hate to see that prediction fail because people neglected this district in favor of the second.
http://www.dinatitus.com/
Note that seats 2 and 3 are among a handful of districts that would each flip the House delegation majority from R to D, which would be important in case of a tie in the electoral college, where each state would get one vote, the vote of a majority of its house delegation. Other states whose majorities could flip from Rep to Dem include Ohio, Wyoming, Alaska, Missouri, New Mexico, Arizona and Louisiana. Only Kansas and New Hampshire have some potential of going the other way.
REDISTRICTING NEVADA: Nevada is expected to pick up a district at the expense of the populous northeastern and midwestern states that could lose blue districts, which makes it doubly important to control redistricting.
If we get to run the table, we will get to choose between having one super-safe GOP district and three solidly Democratic districts, or having four swing districts. It seems to me that the time for having one Vegas-centered district has passed.
To make THREE safe Democratic districts, tri-sect Vegas into equal parts, with the parts heading out into the northwestern, northeastern and southern corners of Clark County. The two northern districts will fan out a little into the cow counties, but not by much. The fourth district will be everything else, and will be pretty solidly red.
To make FOUR swing districts, divide Vegas into rough quarters, with the northern quarters containing somewhat more population than the others. Upper Nevada will consist of one vaguely California-shaped district hugging the California border from Washoe County to Clark, and a different district containing the eastern Big Empty. Both of those districts would extend fingers into Clark County, and those fingers would pretty much be ONLY blue parts of Vegas to counteract the Republican dominance up North. Suburban Clark would be divided among the other two districts, which would each have a little less of Vegas than the two Northern districts. Under this scenario, any of the four could go either way if one party has a national wave year, or if a charismatic candidate from either party proves exceptional.
Previous diaries in this series, including THE BIG ONE for each state:
Delaware(lower house of the State Legislature): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Arkansas(Obama, for want of any other contest): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Illinois(Dan Seals, IL-10): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part One(Michael Skelly, TX-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Texas, Part Two(Rick Noriega, TX-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Utah(building infrastructure): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Massachusetts(Using our majority to govern well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Carolina(Kay Hagan, NC-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Hawaii(Using our majority to govern well; also, preparation for Governor, possible open Senate race in 2010): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Mississippi(Ronnie Musgrove, MS-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oregon(Jeff Merkley, OR-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Ohio(Tie: Obama, and State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maryland(Frank Kratovil, MD-01): http://www.dailykos.com/...
North Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alabama(Bobby Bright, AL-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part one(Charles Brown, CA-04): http://www.dailykos.com/...
California, Part two(Russ Warner, CA-26): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Vermont(Gaye Symington, VT-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Iowa(Rob Hubler, IA-05): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Virginia(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wyoming(Gary Trauner, WY-AL): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Pennsylvania (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Mexico(Harry Teague, NM-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Kentucky(Bruce Lunsford, KY-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Nebraska(Scott Kleeb, NB-SEN): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Friggin’ IDAHO (Larry LaRocco, ID-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Maine (CHEERS to Tom Allen, ME-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Wisconsin (State Legislature, both houses): http://www.dailykos.com/...
New Jersey(Linda Stender, NJ-07): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Oklahoma (Andrew Rice, OK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Dakota(State Legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Colorado(Obama): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Georgia(Jim Martin, GA-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Rhode Island(governing well): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Michigan(State legislature, upper house): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Alaska(Mark Begich, AK-Sen): http://www.dailykos.com/...
Missouri (Jay Nixon, MO-Gov): http://www.dailykos.com/...
West Virginia (GORGEOUS Anne Barth, WV-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...
South Carolina (Linda Ketner, SC-01, Rob Miller, SC-02): http://www.dailykos.com/...