So I'm looking at state polling from Montana, North Dakota, and North Carolina showing McCain making these huge gains. And listening to posters at 538.com, My DD and Daily Kos who want to abandon those states and concentrate on Ohio. Or Florida. Or Colorado. And I say:
ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR FUCKING MINDS?...
And I'm willing to bet that the Obama camp is not going to give up in these states either. Sure, there are states where it does not make a lot of sense to pour resources into a lost cause (Utah anyone?), but there re plenty of reasons why the Obama campaign, and by extension, all of us, should be working harder than ever in these "leaner" states.
First, consider the fact that most of these state polls are reflecting a post convention bump for McCain. As we have seen in the new survey posted by Kos this afternoon, that bump is already fading. Look at the first three days of the tracking poll:
Sept. 8- McCain 47, Obama 46
Sept. 9- Obama 67, McCain 46
Sept. 10- Obama 48, McCain 45
You can see similar movement in the Rasmussen poll over the past few days. What say we wait a few weeks and see what the polls look like at that point before we lower the lifeboats and abandon ship in all these states?
Second, there is no doubt that Riverboat Johnny threw the dice when he picked Sarah Palin as his running mate. Whether it was a desparation move or a brilliant outflanking manauver remains to be seen. One thing is certain, the more Palin hides from the media, the more she stonewalls on troopergate, the more she lies about the bridge to nowhere and her porkbarrel grabs from the federal government, the more scrutiny she will be subjected to. She can't hide forever, and she has to debate Biden in about three weeks; Does anyone seriously think she is going to be able to cram for this debate against a foreign policy expert with impeccable cred like Biden?
Third, registration and GOTV efforts are in full swing in all of these leaner states. Those efforts need to continue. For instance, according to the Civitas Institute, alomost 5.000 new Democrats were registered in North Carolina LAST WEEK. About half of the new voters were black, and the AA vote is now 20.8% of the total number of registered voters. Does that mean Obama is going to win North Carolina? It is certainly going to be an uphill battle, but those numbers give me hope.
Fourth, keeping states like North Carolina and Indiana in play means McCain has to put some resources into those states. Part of the Obama strategy is to make McCain play defense in states he thought he could take for granted.
Fifth, the 50 state strategy is not a one shot deal. Registering all those new Democrats could make a difference in down ballot elections this year, and it will certainly make a difference in 2010 and beyond. We are building a party presence in many of these states that will change the electoral map permenently.