After watching two of Obama's three new ads - the ones that his campaign breathlessly declared "hard hitting," - I've come to the conclusion that there's no way Obama can win this election without accepting some hard realities.
So much of Obama's campaign has been masterfully executed. I think historians and political junkies will look back on the first 16 months of his campaign and marvel at the brilliance and discipline of Obama's campaign team and of the candidate himself. Of course, Howard Dean and Joe Trippi deserve the credit for first recognizing the power of the internet as the best way to reach, and empower, young voters. But Axelrod and Obama have taken it to a whole new level. They've been able to capitalize on the 50-state strategy (thanks again to Howard Dean, who clearly understood the limitations his campaign faced because of an entrenched Democratic establishment) and as a result, have waged an incredible ground war.
But, as we saw with Dean's campaign, a few honest missteps can lead to a disastrous result. Although his campaign may have collapsed eventually from the mismanagement of finances, or from those inside the party establishment who were quietly working together behind the scenes to bring him down - it was really the media-created "scream," that brought Dean's campaign to its knees. His rally cry was distorted over and over by the media, and it gave Rove and his sleaze-mongers the opening they needed to paint him as "unhinged."
Those inside the Obama campaign have clearly figured out how to avoid the "procedural" mistakes of the Dean campaign, but it also appears that they're unwilling to take "message" risks for fear of making that one small misstep that Rove and McCain - with the help of a cowed, complicit media - could capitalize on in this home stretch of the campaign. They seem afraid to go out on a limb because they don't want to give the Swift-boaters anything to work with.
But if they don't recapture that "lightening in a bottle" that Obama has been running on for all but the last month of his 2-year battle, we'll be looking at another loss in November. Despite economic and foreign policy conditions that make this an almost impossible election to lose, he WILL lose if he can't find his message.
Here are some truths Obama needs to deal with:
- The Media Doesn't Care About Your Vision of a Better America. No matter how much access you provide, no matter how deferential you are - the media is not on your side. Olbermann aside, the media isn't interested in a "new" kind of politics. They want a cage fight because it brings in ratings. They understand the attention span of the average American is about 15 seconds, and in order to serve their corporate masters and shareholders, they have to seize on the most sensational (and usually most ridiculous) comment or turn an innocent comment into something sensational. We live in the "infotainment" age, and that's how many Americans like their news served up.
- The Republicans Are Not Your Friends. Oh sure, there are a couple of Republican senators who have said nice things about you - but where are they now? Why aren't they on the morning shows calling McCain and Palin out for distorting your record and platform in despicable ways and for lying to the American people about their own records and platform?
- Your Surrogates Suck. Either that, or your campaign is blatantly choosing not to use them. Where are they?? You're being accused of sexism repeatedly and relentlessly - where are all your strong female surrogates? Where's Hillary? I find it incredibly hard to believe that the morning shows and cable news shows wouldn't be chomping at the bit to have her on. Sadly, the best surrogates you have on TV right now are some of Hillary's former supporters. Don't be afraid to use them just because they criticized you relentlessly during the primaries. You need them. You need all the help you can get right now.
- The Republicans Aren't Your Friends, Part 2. Rove's sleaze-factory isn't going to stop using the same formula that has worked for the last 8 years. It's a shame you took McCain at his word when he said he wanted to run a more respectful kind of campaign. As long as Rove is alive, you should assume there IS no civility in the Republican brand of politics and campaigning. They lie, the cheat, and yes, they steal. They'll lie about you, they'll lie about their records, they'll try to game the system, and they'll steal your message and act as if it was theirs all along.
- John McCain is Not Honorable. So stop saying it.
- Sarah Palin Doesn't Know Shit From Shinola. Don't be afraid to call her out on it. (Also see #3).
- Many Americans Don't Give a Shit About Helping Each Other. At least not right now. Most Americans are suffering economically and they just want the answer to a simple question - "What's in it for me?" Figure out a way to answer that question in 2 minutes or less. When you've only got a few seconds to make your case - whether it's via your ads or the 15-second sound-bytes afforded you by the media (repeat - they are not your friends!), you have to make those seconds count. And you need to be very, very specific and very, very simple.
- Your Convention Speech Was the Perfect Red Meat. Remember your convention speech? When you yelled, "ENOUGH!", it was like water in the desert. It was what many of us (and my guess is, many undecideds) have been waiting to hear. When you listed the litany of Bush-McCain's failures over the last 8 years and told them to "OWN THEIR FAILURES," you spoke to the frustrations of Americans from every walk of life. When you told all 38 million Americans watching your speech that this campaign "ISN'T ABOUT ME, IT'S ABOUT YOU," you were speaking to all the disillusioned Americans who feel their voices doesn't count anymore and they have no say in the government that is supposed to exist by and for THEM. And when you listed out, in detail, your plans to start turning things around, many people felt as though it was the first time they ever heard your plan for the economy. The bounce you got after the convention didn't happen by accident. It happened because YOU WERE ON FIRE.
- Your Ads Suck. (See #8 for alternate ad ideas).
- You Have to Be Yourself. Remember what got you this far. Remember what got you through the grueling primaries and past the Clinton juggernaut. The real "you" is unflappable and cool. The real "you" is inspirational and not afraid to say what needs to be said. The real "you" may not appeal to EVERYONE, but it was a long-shot at best to think you'd capture the evangelical vote. Stop being so hesitant when you speak. Stop trying to think five steps ahead to the potential fall-out of speaking truth to power. You need to reinvigorate your base and the youth of this country. You need to get the excitement back. There's nothing exciting about Sarah Palin - she's scary and she's much more extreme than Americans realize (see #1), but she's a "new, shiny thing," for the media to play with. Start doing huge rallies again... start commanding media attention through the sheer size and scope of your events. Sarah Palin and John McCain had 20,000 people at one of their rallies last week. In the meantime, you're doing small events in libraries and high school auditoriums. Did I wake up in an alternate universe? GO GET YOUR MO-JO BACK - YOU EARNED IT - THEY DIDN'T.
- You Have to Fight Back. Americans will vote for you in a nanosecond - I don't think most people are all that thrilled with McCain. But what they see in Palin is a scrappy fighter, and without the benefit of a media that does its job and calls her out as a liar, they believe every word she's saying. I think most Americans are also a little concerned about her lack of experience and his age, and really want to vote for you and Joe over McSame and Caribou Barbie. But you have to give them a reason - they won't believe you'll fight for them if you won't fight for yourself!
Well, I'm sure I'll get flamed now for assuming I know what Obama should do. Every time a diarist gives advice to the campaign, there are posters who slap back at the diarist for "knowing it all." But when you think about it, this blog is visited by some of the most politically savvy minds around. We are the activists and the idealists. We understand how serious this election is and we take the time to be informed. Why is this the first place many of us come each day to see what's going on in the campaign or in the news?
Please just don't flame too hard, k?