Today's Daily Kos tracking poll (conducted by Research2000) continues to show a close race (MoE +/- 3.) McCain and Obama are tied at 47.
Rasmussen has McCain over Obama 48-45 (no change from yesterday), and the others have yet to report. A new Newsweek poll has the candidates at 46-46%
Of great interest are the internals. Look at Sarah Palin's fav/unfav, which is now below 50% (49/40) and worse than McCain's or Obama's (and Biden's, for that matter.) We'll need to keep an eye on those going forward; it's possible the unfavorable press is taking a toll. Assumptions about how this race is turning out may still need to be adjusted to fit the data (not the other way around). Note that we've been much more skeptical of Palin-as-candidate, based on polling numbers. For example, from Newsweek:
Quantifying how much of this McCain bounce is attributable to the Palin pick can be tricky. When asked, only 29 percent of respondents in the poll said Palin makes them more likely to support McCain in the fall, a proportion on par with other running-mate selections in recent history, like Al Gore in 1992 and Jack Kemp in 1996. In fact, 22 percent of voters say Palin makes them less likely to support McCain, more than any other recent vice presidential candidate.
Republican pundits who suggest she's made of teflon may need to reconsider.
Click the link for all the data.
DAILY KOS PRESIDENTIAL TRACKING POLL 2008
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin, or another candidate? (If "other", pollster respondent who he or she will vote for)
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
13-Sep 47% 47% 2% 2% 1% 1%
MEN 50% 42% 3% 3% 1% 1%
WOMEN 44% 52% 1% 1% 1% 1%
DEM 13% 83% 1% 1% 1% 1%
REP 91% 6% 1% 0% 1% 1%
IND 49% 42% 3% 3% 1% 2%
OTH 48% 42% 3% 3% 2% 5%
WHITE 58% 35% 3% 2% 1% 1%
BLACK 4% 93% 0% 0% 0% 3%
LATINO 32% 65% 0% 1% 0% 2%
OTHER 5% 88% 0% 0% 0% 7%
18-29 32% 61% 0% 1% 0% 6%
30-44 50% 43% 4% 1% 1% 1%
45-59 46% 47% 2% 3% 1% 1%
60+ 55% 39% 1% 3% 1% 1%
NE 39% 56% 1% 2% 1% 1%
SOUTH 56% 37% 3% 1% 1% 2%
MIDWEST 46% 49% 2% 2% 0% 1%
WEST 44% 50% 2% 1% 1% 1%
RESULTS FROM SINGLE DAY SAMPLE (361 respondents, MoE 5.1)
DATE MCCAIN OBAMA BARR NADER OTHER UND
12-Sep 47% 46% 2% 2% 1% 2%
MCCAIN FAVORABILITY
DATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
13-Sep 55% 43% 2%
OBAMA FAVORABILITY
DATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINON
13-Sep 55% 41% 4%
BIDEN FAVORABILITY
DATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINON
13-Sep 50% 32% 18%
PALIN FAVORABILITY
DATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINON
13-Sep 49% 40% 11%
GENERIC CONGRESSIONALBALLOT
DATE DEM REP UND
13-Sep 46% 40% 14%
POLL DEMOGRAPHICS
DEMOGRAPHICS:
Men 514 (47%)
Women 586 (53%)
Democrats 386 (35%)
Republicans 285 (26%)
Independents 329 (30%)
Other/Refused 100 (9%)
White 803 (73%)
Black 145 (13%)
Latino 140 (13%)
Other/Ref 12 (1%)
18-29 198 (18%)
30-44 360 (33%)
45-59 298 (27%)
60+ 244 (22%)
Northeast 243 (22%)
South 315 (29%)
Midwest 307 (28%)
West 235 (21%)
NOTE
The tracking poll has a baseline of 1100 likely voters nationwide.
Results are based on a three day rolling average.
The margin for error is 3% for the overall tracking.
The margin for error is 5.1% for individual day tracking.
GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN:
Northeast:
DC, ME, VT, NY, MD, PA,CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ
South:
FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR,
Midwest:
IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO
West:
NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY