Polls are coming in faster now....
Here I track the states that pollster.com rates as "tossup" in the presidential election and some others that appear close.
I used all the polls I could find on Pollster (except internet polls) in 2008. Each plot includes dots for every poll (red for Repub., blue for Dem.) and four lines, each line is a loess smooth, one is more smooth and one less smooth. The 'undecided' line is read on the right axis, and includes anyone who didn't pick McCain or Obama.
Alaska is now McCain's.
Arizona
Obama is slowly gaining. He's not likely to win it, but McCain might have to show up in his home state. If there's a big surge for Obama, it's possible
Colorado
Very close. Obama seems to be losing ground here.... What's up, Colorado?
Florida
Obama is gaining steadily. We need to play up Ed Koch's endorsement of Obama. That could be very big with former New Yorkers in FL
Indiana
McCain now seems to have a steady lead of 4 or 5
Michigan
It's certainly not time to get complacent, but the trend is right, and McCain's "economy is fundamentally sound" will probably play particularly poorly here, while Obama's "which country?" may play well. 13% of eligible voters are Black, only 65% of whom voted in 2004
Missouri
Another state where McCain's lead seems to have steadied. I think there's still a good chance here, though. 11% of eligible voters in MO are Black.
Nevada
A lot of California kossacks (and others) are putting in lots of hours here. These polls are all too early to reflect that.
UPDATE with New Hampshire
Too close for comfort
New Mexico
Huge disparity in the polls, but the overall trend is good. I think a lot will depend on GOTV among the very large Latino population. 37% of eligible voters are Latino, and only 57% of them voted in 2004.
North Carolina
It will be close in NC, which, in itself, is very cool; 21% of eligible voters are Black, of whom 64% voted in 2004
North Dakota
Only a few polls, with numbers all over the place (notice the dashed lines swinging like crazy). Who knows?
Ohio
Probably the closest polls in the country right now.
Virginia
Close... very close