As a Houston resident, I've gotten lots of questions from my friends and family on why we didn't evacuate prior to Ike, and I have some sort of random thoughts that I wanted to work out. Blogging is always a good way to do that.
This is a personal diary, meaning that I'm not working off of other sources. These are just my thoughts as one of the many millions of folks who rode out Ike.
The Houston metropolitan area is huge. As we saw in Rita, there is no way to get all the residents out in advance of a storm. So the County has set up different zones, based on the risk of flooding in each area. The plan for Ike was to get those people who had decent chances of being flooded out (those became the mandatory evacuation zones). The power of the storm surge is tremendous, and as you can see from the remains of Crystal Beach, you don't want people in area where they can be inundated by storm surge.
As bad as it is, we were actually quite lucky in that Ike took a wobble and passed over Galveston instead of further to the west. A direct hit over Freeport could have been catastrophic for Galveston Bay (and Clear Lake, Pasadena, and all of SE Harris County and Galveston County). Hundreds of thousands of homes could have been flooded and the potential for injury and loss of life was large.
Folks in my area were asked to stay put, shelter in place and ride out the storm. My family had evacuated during Rita, because county officials said all those in the 100-year flood plain should leave. We do live in that flood plain (and were close to being flooded in 2001 with Tropical Storm Allison), and with a large category 4 hurricane swirling in the gulf, we got out (in advance of the clogged roadways and difficulties you saw). Evacuating was expensive--that unplanned Rita vacation cost us more than $1,000 in hotel and meals and supplies.
For Ike, Harris County Flood control assured us that those living on inland bayous (like us) were in absolutely no danger of flooding, and that assurance more than anything else relieved my mind. Because of this, we felt comfortable in our decision to stay (although I nagged my husband until he went and bought plywood).
In a lot of ways, this plan worked quite well, both for us and for our community. The people in mandatory evacuation zones got out to safety. And Ike passed over, a powerful storm but not catastrophic, leaving mainly downed trees and minor damage in our neighborhood (except for the unlucky houses with trees through them). All of our block got to work, clearing trees out of the roadway and helping each other clean up. I think I talked to my neighbors more after Ike than I had in a year.
By staying, we were able to evaluate the situation at our home post-Ike, prepare our house for an extended absence, do fence repair work, and then leave if we so chose. We had supplies at home for more than a week and two cars in good repair with full tanks of gas. Contrast that with my cousins and family who had evacuated from the mandatory evacuation zones. They were still anxious and worried, wanting to know what had happened to their houses and their property. We knew that our damage was minimal (probably less than our insurance deductible), so we were relieved of the anxiety they were feeling. They wanted to get home; we could stay or we could go.
But, of course, being as prepared as we were takes both money and time. I had an extra $400 to buy water, nonperishable food items, bug spray, batteries, plywood, etc. We had the time to gas up the cars and board up our home. While the kids were at school, I could wait in line to buy bread and peanut butter and jelly. We have a camp stove and propane and everything you'd need to rough it. And, we have the financial ability to go stay in a hotel out of town (or with my sister).
I think asking people to stay was right. But, if you are going to do that, you have to be prepared to help them afterwards. Not everyone can afford to buy what we bought in advance for storm supplies; way too many people scrape by from paycheck to paycheck. Not everyone is a salaried employee who gets paid even when they miss work to board up their house like we did. Many people faced the storm unprepared, but they stayed put because their city and county and state asked them to. This was vitally important in that it could have and probably did save lives. Certainly, if Ike hadn't wobbled it did.
But, what will happen next time? The aftermath of Ike has been so extremely difficult and hard on so many people. I worry that next time, people won't listen to the city and the county and won't stay. And that those in actual imminent danger from a storm won't be able to get out.
I think my community learned a lot from Rita and I'm sure we'll learn a lot from Ike as well. This is just a piece that I hope emergency planners pay attention to--if you're going to ask people to ride out a storm, please figure out how to get supplies to them as quickly and efficiently as possible. Clearly, we have a lot to learn in this area.
Note: We did stay for a couple days after the storm, but I write this diary 150 miles from home. Although we had plenty of supplies, my older son who was sniffling when Ike hit, came down with a bad bronchitis in the dank air afterwards. Now on an antibiotic and in a climate-controlled environment, he's doing much better. The kids and I are staying here with relatives, and my husband is heading back today to check on things.
Note #2: We are definitely among those 1.5 million without power, with no good estimates as to a resumption date. As a result, I could find out more about the situation at home than I could at home. I get calls from my friends at home and look stuff up for them because I'm somewhere with power and Internet access. The live stream of the local television stations has been very informative, and the Houston Chronicle has had lots of updatesHouston Chronicle