Gallup is now reporting that Obama leads 47-45 in its daily tracking poll. I hate tracking polls, but I like using whatever I can for my candidate's advantage in order to keep the Media and GOP honest. 3 out of the 4 tracking polls have Obama ahead for the first time since the GOP convention. McCain is at 45% or below in 3 out of the 4. Obama is above 45% in all 4 trackers.
After watching Plouffe's video and his breakdown of the battleground states, I have become more of a convert to the Obama theory of how to win this election.
In Florida, Plouffe says 500,000 registered African American voters did not show up in 2004. Another 1 million young voters (for a total of 1.5 million likely Obama voters) did not show up in 2004. That number alone dwarfs Bush's 2004 margin of victory by about a factor of 4+.
In my view, Obama has to battle to a tie in the public polling in Ohio, Florida and other states where there is a substantial Democratic voter advantage by election day. If he does so, he'll win.
As for the west, Nevada and New Mexico appear to be the places where the Plouffe theory will lead to victory. In Colorado, there are still more registered Republicans than Democrats (but as many Indies as GOPers). The Plouffe theory doesn't work as well there, and the campaign will simply have to use newly registered voters in Denver to beat McCain's margins in Colorado Springs and fight him in every suburban and rural county (hence Obama's trips to Pueblo, Grand Junction and Suburban Denver).
Well, that's a lot of good news so far. The VA polls look good. In addition, Pollster.com updated its electoral vote chart to add NM and subtract WV from McCain. It's now 243-223 Obama. Need to get Michigan and NH back up there and get better polls out of PA. Ultimately, he will need to get Ohio back to a tie to make this thing an easy win.
http://www.gallup.com/...