Sort of cross-posted at FiveThirtyEight.
Many of you are regular readers of 538, founded by Nate Silver. Since the end of May I - formerly PocketNines - been posting over there as well, and during the final 8 weeks we're covering as many battleground states as we can. A perfectly accurate poll might miss the ground game. And we're out on the road catching that story.
I've brought a talented photographer along named Brett Marty and we're inevitably intersecting with the candidates in battleground states. Yesterday we crossed paths with Barack Obama in Española, New Mexico, and we're here to share.
We're also using this opportunity to call attention to our On-the-Road series for those of you who aren't yet regular 538 readers. Also, in the future, Brett will be cross-posting some of these on-the-ground photo diaries. Look for his username.
On the Road: Intro
On the Road: Nevada, here, here, here and here.
On the Road: New Mexico, here and here.
We're coming through a series of battleground states on this trip to chronicle the ground game: Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Omaha-NE, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. We're finding a lot of generosity with couches and beds along the way, and we're extremely grateful. Eight weeks of filling up the tank for a couple of out-of-pocket guys is going to hurt. We ain't too proud to beg. pocket99s at gmail or brett538 at gmail.
Did you know Brett once drove a '95 Buick from California to the southern tip of Argentina? He's also just wrapping up a documentary on Lawrence Ferlinghetti. When seeking a photojournalist, that's just the kind of thing that jumps out at a guy who once walked across the country with a backpack, tent and journal for the better part of two years. Take a look at these gorgeous shots!
Nate's back in Chicago, cranking away on the numbers. We wanted to cover this story of the ground game because it's where so many states will be decided, and because after eight horrible years Democrats can actually do a tangible thing - make a tangible effort toward getting Barack Obama elected.
For every twelve doors you knock on, you get one voter to vote who would not otherwise have voted. Let's do that math - 240 knocks equals 25% contact rate (180 not homes/wrong addresses) equals 60 contacts. 60 contacts means you personally got 5 voters to go vote who would otherwise not have voted. Now aggregate that over millions of volunteers. You can knock on 240 doors in a solid both-days weekend.
The ground game is not sexy. At all. It's a grind. You sacrifice time. You feel sometimes like you're not doing much. Sometimes when you're on the phone all you want is call time to end. Knocking on doors you get sweaty, your feet can start hurting. You start looking forward to when it's over. That's the truth, for the majority of people.
And it's easier to be an Armchairman.
But when you look in the mirror on November 5, what will you see?
Will you see someone who let this Obama-kid outwork you?
Forget the yard signs and the bumper stickers. Forget the blog bubble. We're so busy it feels like we haven't read a blog it feels like for a week, and it's glorious. All you see is direct action.
There are Republicans out there working hard. We've seen them. Gotta want it more.
NOW IS THE TIME.
Find your local field office and be part of it.
We hope to see you out there.
Peace.