So has the US become so out of control that we are being contained against the potential instability caused by the upcoming elections? Or against the coming post Peak Oil economic shocks?
Russians in Venezuela, China all over us, allies declining and adversaries strengthening?
I remember standing at a whiteboard with a friend, in 2000 shortly before the election, or maybe just after, discussing the not-rare view in Europe that America in the years since the cold war had begun to be viewed as a rogue nation, particularly in light of the decline of the threat from the Soviet Union.
We sketched out a map of the world for some high-level meme-based geopolitics. In the end we thought that actually the US could definitely be viewed as contained, in the same fashion the USSR had been - contained from expansion, and then had its influence eroded.
Europe had just come together in spectacular fashion and was weakening bilateral ties with the US in favour of EU-centric ties in which the European partners were now significantly stronger in terms of bargaining power in relations with the US.
The Catholic church's influence in Latin America enabled Europe to extend its influence at the expense of US influence regardless of any Monroe doctrine.
Africa looked as though it was always going to be Europe's resource base to control and never achieve any real level of autonomy as a result of the terrible legacy of a greedy colonialism that had left institutions so weak that there was little to stand in the way of multi-national corporations and European political meddlers (see Rwanda).
As someone who was in Hong Kong at the handover of sovereignty in 1997, and for whom the formerly British parts of Asia were a big part of my life, by 2000 it was clear that the emergence of China was progressing so rapidly that Asian nations were positioning towards China more and away from legacy relationships, usually leading to lessening US influence.
And India emerging from its cold war alliances had positioned itself well for strong independent growth and blossoming into a major international power and influencer itself.
The first months of Bush were interesting if viewed as how the US flexed and pushed back - on the meme level - against these trends. We saw early confrontation with China, and this is why I found the spy plane drama happening so unsurprising. The Catholic church was eviscerated over sex-offenders in its clergy, helping weaken its reach into Latin America, and even opening doors for increased activity by the political forces of the US religious right...
...and before the other restraints weighed on it enough to return to the containment status quo, the US experienced Sept 11. POW! Just like that it happened and things changed dramatically. The US shook of its chains aggressively and lashed out unwisely and without pause for thought and consideration.
And we played chicken with the world economy on a borrow, and spend binge while destabilizing the world and not taking seriously the pending decline in natural resources and coming climatic catastrophes. We said "you keep lending us this money or the entire system will collapse and then you're all screwed".
Yet look at where we are today:
Chinese influence dominates Asia and has stepped into many African countries where EU influence failed to hold. Oh, and as our economic system appears to be falling apart before our eyes China still holds a staggering amount of our debt which at some point we will have to trade assets for (the easy way or the hard way).
Latin America is a continent where the poor are served by Cuban doctors and driven on Venezuelan oil, all the while protected by Russia! (Yes - how is this not being covered as the TOP item on the news right now?)
The EU has surpassed us in economic might, is on a stronger fiscal footing and is starting to address the challenges of climate change and energy challenges.
So has the US become so out of control that we are being contained against the potential instability caused by the upcoming elections? Or against the coming post Peak Oil shocks?
I think it's clear that a McCain Presidency does represent a significant and broadly internationally recognized threat to world order - especially given that US oil supplies are in dire straights.
Just with our top two suppliers: Mexican production is crashing and will eliminate our second largest supplier of oil within a handful of years and of course Canada not ramping up as some had naively hoped. Then, Venezuela under Putin's protection may well switch off their spigot and out goes another major US supplier leaving us f**k*d. And if you don't know about Ghawar, you should.
Some are even asking - are we even being taken out?
No, I don't think so, I think that what we're seeing is the inevitable events that follow our Peaking of Global Oil Production (and clearly predicted to any Oil Drum reader who's been reading this last couple of years).
- Exponential economic growth was underpinned by exponential growth in availability of natural resources -->
- as natural resource production peaks and declines - particularly energy in the form of fossil fuels - economic growth falters -->
- then, as the entire economic system is built on the assumption that this brief 300 years of industrial growth and massive populations is sustainable in the long term and that resource depletion will not change any of that, the entire economic system collapses -->
- leading to a failure to successfully allocate resources to minimize harm and suffering or to facilitate an orderly retrenching to a more sustainable way of living -->
- ultimately leading to a massive die-off around the world, an outcome so staggeringly unpleasant that it should shock us to our core and make us want to do whatever we could RIGHT NOW to mitigate the effects of what is to come, on self, family and community, to whatever degree is possible.
Plus, I don't think you can make the case that China triggered this meltdown through any deliberate massive sales of US debt, which would be part of any calculated attack on America's economy.
I think this is just that oil prices rose due to early Peak Oil effects. I think this increase was bound to cause an uptick in people whose budgets were finally broken by this extra outgoing leading to a bump in repossession rates. Those made the markets wake up to the nonsense that is the idea of Collateralized Debt Obligations (nope, that's not money!). This caused the slow motion train wreck of bankruptcies and failures that seem to get more and more severe; that seem to have no end in sight; that seem "to lead into the heart of an immense darkness."