A press release released today from UCLA describes a study which indicates that a different interpretation may be in order for the decline in violence.
Based on analysis of nighttime light, studied over time, it seems more likely that ethnic cleansing prior to the surge, not the surge itself, is the more predominant reason for the decrease in violence in Baghdad.
UCLA study of satellite imagery casts doubt on surge's success in Baghdad
By tracking the amount of light emitted by Baghdad neighborhoods at night, a team of UCLA geographers has uncovered fresh evidence that last year's U.S. troop surge in Iraq may not have been as effective at improving security as some U.S. officials have maintained.
Night light in neighborhoods populated primarily by embattled Sunni residents declined dramatically just before the February 2007 surge and never returned, suggesting that ethnic cleansing by rival Shiites may have been largely responsible for the decrease in violence for which the U.S. military has claimed credit, the team reports in a new study based on publicly available satellite imagery.
"Essentially, our interpretation is that violence has declined in Baghdad because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said lead author John Agnew, a UCLA professor of geography and authority on ethnic conflict. "By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left."
It's always been clear that many factors were involved -- the buying off of insurgents, the exhaustion and impatience of the Iraqis, new US tactics, and the increased numbers of security troops, both Iraqi and US.
But this is the first time I've seen evidence indicating that ethnic cleansing might have been a key factor in the decrease in violence.
Funny, that. It's sort of like saying that your car is running quieter, now that you've taken out the engine.
Until just before the surge, the night-light signature of Baghdad had been steadily increasing overall, they report in "Baghdad Nights: Evaluating the U.S. Military 'Surge' Using Night Light Signatures."
"If the surge had truly 'worked,' we would expect to see a steady increase in night-light output over time, as electrical infrastructure continued to be repaired and restored, with little discrimination across neighborhoods," said co-author Thomas Gillespie, an associate professor of geography at UCLA. "Instead, we found that the night-light signature diminished in only in certain neighborhoods, and the pattern appears to be associated with ethno-sectarian violence and neighborhood ethnic cleansing."
But wait -- that's scientific analysis... which is just silly, in Bushland.