Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/17-18. Likely voters. MoE 5%.
Luetkemeyer (R) 49
Baker (D) 40
Full crosstabs below the fold. Not bad numbers at all for Democrat Judy Baker, particularly in an R+6.5 district where Obama is getting beaten quite badly, 56-37. This is roughly comparable to Kerry's performance in the district, where he lost 59-41.
All the polling released so far - a Baker internal, a SurveyUSA poll, and now Research 2000 - has shown Baker getting around 40%. It seems that when leaners are not pushed, Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer is also around 40%...and when leaners are pushed, his numbers jump 9-10 points.
Still, Luetkemeyer's advantage in this poll is due largely to superior name recognition and a natural district advantage as a Republican. Leaners breaking his way also indicates his support is somewhat soft.
Luetkemeyer escaped a pretty ugly primary on the GOP side (one featuring our dear friend Brock Olivo), but appears to have shrugged off any ill effects from it; his favorable/unfavorables are at pretty solid 45/28, and Republicans in particular love him. Baker's favorables are also pretty good; 37% favorable, 24% unfavorable. Notably, Baker gets higher marks from Republicans than Luetkemeyer does from Democrats.
The polling also indicates that the largest group of undecideds is among women, 8% of women voters. Somewhat surprisingly, Luetkemeyer merits a small edge among women (45-42), but if Baker does catch him, it will likely be in this demographic.
Baker's close enough, and well enough liked in the district, to win this race, but she needs to close very strong. She needs to pull solidly ahead among women voters in the district, where she may currently be underperforming slightly thanks to Sarah Palin. Both campaigns have gone on the air, so it's quite possible there will be significant movement in this race, one way or the other, over the next month.
MO-NINTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – SEPTEMBER 2008
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Ninth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 17 and September 18, 2008.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 192 (48%)
Women 208 (52%)
Democrats 124 (31%)
Republicans 155 (39%)
Independents/Other 121 (30%)
18-29 70 (18%)
30-44 129 (32%)
45-59 123 (31%)
60+ 78 (19%)
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Blaine Luetkemeyer? (Iffavorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 34% 18% 10% 27%
MEN 13% 37% 17% 9% 24%
WOMEN 9% 31% 19% 11% 30%
DEMOCRATS 6% 22% 33% 18% 21%
REPUBLICANS 18% 46% 8% 5% 23%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 32% 15% 9% 35%
18-29 8% 31% 21% 12% 28%
30-44 12% 36% 16% 9% 27%
45-59 10% 33% 19% 11% 27%
60+ 14% 37% 16% 8% 25%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Judy Baker? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 8% 29% 16% 8% 39%
MEN 7% 27% 18% 9% 39%
WOMEN 9% 31% 14% 7% 39%
DEMOCRATS 13% 41% 10% 3% 33%
REPUBLICANS 5% 20% 22% 13% 40%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 28% 15% 7% 42%
18-29 10% 32% 13% 6% 39%
30-44 7% 27% 18% 9% 39%
45-59 9% 30% 14% 7% 40%
60+ 6% 27% 19% 10% 38%
QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for Judy Baker the Democrat or Blaine Luetkemeyer the Republican?
LUETKEMEYER BAKER OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 40% 6% 5%
MEN 53% 38% 7% 2%
WOMEN 45% 42% 5% 8%
DEMOCRATS 11% 81% 4% 4%
REPUBLICANS 80% 7% 6% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 49% 41% 7% 3%
18-29 45% 43% 5% 7%
30-44 53% 38% 7% 2%
45-59 47% 41% 7% 5%
60+ 51% 39% 5% 5%
QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?
MCCAIN OBAMA OTHER UNDECIDED
ALL 56% 37% 3% 4%
MEN 61% 34% 3% 2%
WOMEN 51% 40% 3% 6%
DEMOCRATS 18% 76% 3% 3%
REPUBLICANS 85% 8% 2% 5%
OTHER 58% 34% 3% 5%
18-29 53% 41% 3% 3%
30-44 57% 35% 4% 4%
45-59 56% 38% 3% 3%
60+ 58% 34% 1% 7%