By Jwilkes from Eyes on Obama:
Capping off a week that has seen a surprising reversal of fortunes, Barack Obama has overcome what was a five point deficit less than two weeks ago to claim a five point lead of his own, according to the latest Gallup three day tracking poll. He ’s also halted advances made by John McCain in key states across the rust belt and in the west.
Capping off a week that has seen a surprising reversal of fortunes, Barack Obama has overcome what was a five point deficit less than two weeks ago to claim a five point lead of his own, according to the latest Gallup three day tracking poll. He’s also halted advances made by John McCain in key battleground states across the rust belt and in the west.
Obama’s success is largely attributable to the resurfacing of the economy as a major issue (in fact, the most important, according to a number of nationwide surveys) in the 2008 election. The collapse of financial giants Lehman Brothers and AIG sent the markets flailing, and prompted a Fed bailout that is creating a heated debate in Washington. Politically, the rocky week on Wall Street has shifted attention away from what had been the focal point of the bulk of media coverage since the Republican National Convention: Sarah Palin. After McCain told members of the press that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong," his potential handling of economic issues as commander in chief came under serious scrutiny.
Additionally, the last two weeks have been tough for John McCain. He was blasted following an appearance on The View, in which his attempt to appeal to one of his most important demographics- women- fell flat. He also sparred with Morning Joe co-host Mika Brzezinski, whom he called an "Obama supporter," and called her mentioning of her brother’s work for the Arizona Senator’s campaign "a cheap shot." McCain has also made a number of verbal gaffes. In one instance, he apparently insulted the government of Spain.
Obama is seeing a surge not just in national polls, but in state specific studies as well. After falling behind significantly in Ohio, the Democratic nominee for president has rallied back, posting moderate gains that have allowed him to retake command of the race for the electoral vote rich state.
In Michigan, where his strong lead appeared to be slipping just a week ago, Obama has been on a tear, posting his largest lead (+9, according to a study by Marist University) since the beginning of the general election campaign.
In Colorado, which is considered one of the most crucial battleground states in the election, Obama broke a long streak of polls whose margins were typically one to three points (some in favor of McCain) by posting a ten point lead in a study conducted by Insider Advantage/Poll Position.
Even in typically red state Indiana, Obama has narrowed what was a sizeable lead in favor of McCain, whittling the margin down to just a few points. RealClearPolitics.com has shifted the state from "leaning McCain" to "tossup.""
The Illinois Democrat has also continued his dominance in New Mexico, which voted for George W. Bush back in 2004. In recent polls, his leads have ranged from seven points on the low end to thirteen on the high end.
There are a few bright spots for the Arizona Senator, places where there will remain serious challenges for Obama. In Wisconsin, Obama’s success seems to have slowed. Polls there are showing him ahead consistently, but only by a very slim margin. Plus, in Nevada, where he had been experiencing some positive support prior to the introduction of Palin, Obama hasn’t seen some of the bounce that he’s seen elsewhere.
With 45 days to the election, McCain is looking at a rough road ahead. National focus is likely to remain on the economy, and some are still predicting that the market fallout could bring down another couple banks. McCain and Palin have struggled to define themselves as qualified to handle the economy, and comments from McCain co-chair Carly Fiorina (who said that neither McCain nor Palin were qualified to run a major corporation) haven’t helped either.
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