It appears as though North Carolina may be swing this cycle after all. I don't diary often, but seeing as I haven't seen a diary on the Civitas poll released today, people may find it interesting that Obama's support in North Carolina is building at a minimum, if not being accompanied by McCain's support slipping in the state.
Following the recent Virginia polls with reasonable cross-tabs showing Obama up 50-44 in Virginia among Registered Voters (WaPo), 51-45 according to SUSA (including 91% Democratic support), and down 50-48 according to Rasmussen (no current cross-tabs available), it would stand to reason that North Carolina may be creeping a little bit closer as well.
PPP yesterday issued a poll showing the economy's influence in pushing North Carolina even, at 46 a piece. Rasmussen released a similar poll today, showing Obama within the margin at 47-50. Civitas, which executes polls for the Republican party in North Carolina (according to Pollster.com), also released a VERY encouraging poll today showing the race as a dead heat, at 45-45.
I will defer to Nate Silver's analysis on Fivethirtyeight as to Obama's chances in North Carolina, but I will add that given Virginia's 'apparent' shift toward Obama in the most recent polls, as well as the Inverse Bradley Effect in southern states with high African American populations having a possible impact on the race (as it appeared to in the Primary), I'm fairly optimistic as to Obama's chances in turning this state blue.
In Nate's simulations, apparently 103/10000, aka 1% of the time North Carolina was carried while Virginia was not, so perhaps it's a moot point in any event. Your Thoughts?
Addendum:
The best part of the Civitas poll is this line here:
Obama has reversed McCain’s recent lead among unaffiliated voters and now leads 45-40. Obama is receiving 12 percent of the Republican vote while McCain has 22 percent of the Democrats. "The moderate, unaffiliated voters have swung to Obama this month, resulting in a virtual dead heat for President," added De Luca. "The race in North Carolina hinges on these voters."
Despite the large amount of southern DINOs, Obama clearly has appeal across the board. Quite an encouraging sign.