This diary is about the most important numbers that may determine the fate of the race in Ohio. Below the fold, some discussion of new Ohio polls, of the election, and of the most important numbers in Ohio.
First, a few poll numbers that are interesting even though they are not the most important numbers in Ohio. The Marist Poll indicates the presidential race is tight, with Obama leading McCain 47-45. However, other polls show McCain with a slight lead, and the conclusion from current polling is that Ohio is too close to call.
The Marist Poll is trying to predict an important outcome, but its results are not the most important numbers in Ohio.
This next set of numbers also can't be called the most important numbers in Ohio, but they ought to excite Democrats in Ohio. From Roll Call via the always excellent Congressional election website SwingStateProject:
OH-01:
Steve Driehaus (D): 44
Steve Chabot (R-inc): 46
Other: 6
(MoE: ±3.9%)
OH-02:
Victoria Wulsin (D): 40
Jean Schmidt (R-inc) 48
Other: 10
(MoE: ±3.9%)
OH-15 (8/2-4 in parens):
Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47 (47)
Steve Stivers (R): 42 (44)
Don Eckhart (I): 5 (7)
Mark Noble (L): 3
(MoE: ±4%)
OH-16:
John Boccieri (D): 49
Kirk Schuring (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers are SurveyUSA polls of four U.S. House seats currently held by Republicans. Despite a bitter backlash against the Republican Party in 2006, only one of Ohio's Republican districts was won by a Democrat. That was when Zach Space succeeded the felon Bob Ney in the 18th District.
This time around, we have the potential to win big. Cincinnati Rep. Steve Chabot is leading Democrat Steve Driehaus by only two points. (Diary corrected after initially -- and incorrectly -- giving Driehaus the lead.) Mary Jo Kilroy is leading by five points in her battle for the Columbus-area seat Deborah Pryce vacated soon after holding off Kilroy by just a few hundred votes in 2006. Further north, Republican Ralph Regula vacated a seat he had held for decades, and John Boccieri looks to be in position to pick it up. Even in blood-red southern Ohio outside of Cincinnati, Vic Wulsin is within striking distance of Mean Jean Schmidt. None of these seats are guaranteed to go Democratic this fall, but all are within reach.
Which brings me to the most important numbers in Ohio.
Numbers which have not been calculated yet, but numbers that are more important than any other, right now.
The most important numbers in Ohio are the numbers of new voters registered, and the number of voters we can bring to the polls.
With enough new voters voting, the good result from the Marist Poll may be realized. With enough new voters voting, we may see Ohio add to a House Democratic majority to work with the new president on turning the economy around.
We have time to do both, but the time to do it is fast approaching.
Early voting begins September 30 in Ohio. That's next Tuesday. Voter registration ends October 6 in Ohio. That's two weeks from today.
The work to get this done is pretty straightforward. It is the work the Obama campaign has been doing for months.
Get registered to vote. You can also use the Ohio Secretary of State's online registration form here.
Find your early voting location and vote. Early voting banks votes for the Democrats well in advance of the long lines that may discourage some voters on November 4. Early voting also frees us up to get other people out to the polls. You can also request an absentee ballot and find the appropriate address to send your ballot here.
Help register other people to vote before Ohio's registration deadline comes up on October 6. The Obama campaign also has the addresses of its 70 Ohio offices on the Ohio state campaign page if you have the time to drop into an office and volunteer.
Talk to your neighbors about going to the polls early and voting for Democrats. Some of your neighbors may already support Democratic candidates from Barack Obama down to county and city offices, but it's still worth talking them into voting early. Others near you may still be on the fence, and talking with them about why you are voting Democratic this year could get them to vote with us this fall. (ShadowSD has a good summary of reasons to vote for Obama here.)
The most important numbers in Ohio right now are the numbers of voters we are registering and bringing to the polls today and in the weeks ahead. Ohio is a close state, both on the presidential level and in several House races. The work we do on the ground and on the phones may mean everything come the night of November 4.
Early voting begins next week. Voter registration ends Oct. 6. Let's see what numbers we turn out in the time before time runs out.