Cross posted from Future Majortiy - a blog about progressive youth politics.
One of the big questions on everyone's mind this year is "just how important will the youth vote be this year?" I just got off a conference call in which Rock the Vote and pollsters Celinda Lake (D) and Ed Goeas (R) discussed the findings of their new poll of young voters. Conducted between September 8 and 17 and sampling 650 18 - 29 year olds on both cell phone and landlines, this is probably the only reliable poll out there at the moment with a sizable enough sample to accurately reflect the attitudes of young voters in the post-convention electorate.
Short version: Not much has changed since February, when Rock the Vote released it's last poll. Despite the conventions, the slew of attack ads, and the introduction of the VPs into the race, young voters are more engaged in the election than ever before, they still overwhelmingly identify as Democrats, Sen. Obama still holds a large, double digit lead over McCain among this cohort (56 - 29%), and while Sarah Palin's pick as the VP is energizing Young Republicans, it has failed to move new young voters into the Republican camp. In essence, if the election were held today, young voters would not only turnout in record numbers, they would vote for Barack Obama by overwhelming margins
That's only scratching the surface of the wealth of data offered in Rock the Vote's poll. There is a ton of information here, and I'll try to unpack it as succinctly as possible in this much more wonkier version:
Political Environment
Young voters are more energized than ever before - whether they support the Democratic and Republican tickets. The overall political environment greatly favors the Democrats, however. A vast majority of young voters believe that the country is on the wrong track, though less so than the general population. Young voters are paying closer attention to the race than ever before, and record numbers of these young voters are self-identifying as Democrats.
- 69% of young voters believe that the country is "on the wrong track," this number is unchanged since February, and is lower than the number for all adults, 81% of whom believe the country is headed in the wrong direction
- Half of all young voters identify as Democrats, compared to just 29% who identify as Republicans. This is a 10 point increase since the 2006 elections.
- 87% of young voters are closely following the elections, an increase of 7% since February.
- 86% of young people say they are likely to vote in November, compared to 69% who said that in September of 2006.
- Young Republicans have closed the enthusiasm gap and now 3/4 of both Democrats and Republicans say they are excited about their ticket and are extremely likely to vote in November.
- The Democrat's advantage among youth is evident in all demographics:
The Candidates
There are few surprises here. Barack Obama remains the choice of young voters (56 - 29%) and while overall support for both candidates remains steady, McCain has seen his maverick image plummet among young voters, perhaps due to negative campaigning in the weeks leading up to the poll. While Independent voters make up a slim portion of the youth vote this year, Independents are more likely to lean towards Obama than Sen. McCain. This is likely due to the fact that young voters view this election through the "change" frame favored by Obama rather than the "experience" frame recently pushed by the McCain campaign. Neither Biden's nor Palin's place on the ticket has altered the race among young voters.
- Both of the Democratic Candidates are viewed more favorably by young voters than their Republican opponents. Both Democrats have a net positive favorable rating (+22 for Obama, +30 for Biden). Both Republicans have a net negative rating (-4 for both McCain and Palin).
- Joe Biden is the least known factor in the race among young voters, with 33% having no opinion of him.
- All the candidates far better among Independents, who have favorable views of all the candidates. While McCain and Palin gain ground among independents, Obama still maintains a healthy lead among this group
- While both Obama and McCain's favorable ratings have remained steady since February, McCain's unfavorable's have climbed by 15 points since then, moving his rating from a net positive to a net negative.
- Despite that, both candidate's support remains steady, and supporters of both candidates have only increased their enthusiasm since February.
- Among independents who have not yet cast their lot with a candidate, Obama stands more likely than McCain to capture their votes, with 58% suggesting that they might vote for Obama compared to just 45% for McCain.
- On the issue of "Change vs. Experience," McCain still beats Obama among those looking for experience, but the poll shows that it is the Change issue that is most likely to decide how young voters cast their ballots:
Congress
Young voters are more likely to vote for Democratic candidates this November than Republicans, although the current numbers are not as high as the margins democrats received in February or during the 2006 elections. This shift in opinion, however, has not benefited the Republicans. Rather, young people have moved from the Democratic column into the "undecided" column.
- 49% of all young voters say they will vote on the Democratic line in Congressional elections this fall. This is a slight drop-off from February, when 52% declared their support for Democrats.
- This movement away from Democrats has not helped the Republicans, whose numbers have held steady at 27%. Rather, more young people are unsure of their choice in November.
On the Issues
The economy remains the #1 issue among young voters, but it's position has solidified since the last poll in February, with more young voters than ever citing it as the top issue which the next president must address. Among independents, a small but important piece of the youth electorate, College affordability remains an issue of concern. Candidates hoping to woo those voters into their column need to talk more about that issue on the trail.
- There are substantial differences between young Democrats, Independents, and Republicans when it comes to the issues. Among Democrats, the economy is overwhelmingly the most important issue (38%). While it remains the #1 issue for Independents (26%) and Republicans (17%), both of these groups have significantly different views when it comes to the second and third most important issues facing the country. Young Republicans are disproportionately concerned with Terrorism and high gas prices (16 and 15% respectively), while 19% of Independents rank college costs and education as a significantly important issue.
- ~65% of young voters believe that the candidates are not talking enough about college affordability and job creation, and a majority of young voters believe that the candidates are not talking enough about health care or gas and energy prices.
- These issues, which are still not being adequately addressed by candidates, are the issues on which young votes will most likely cast their ballot:
The Palin Effect
Much has been made about Sarah Palin as the Republican VP choice and the potential for her to appeal to young voters turned away by McCain's age, and in particular to pull young, independent women behind the Republican ticket. This has not happened. As we saw above, support among young voters for McCain remains both low and steady. While Palin's entry has energized young Republican women and young Republicans who already supported the ticket, it has failed to move young voters generally. In addition:
- By over a 30 point margin (76 - 42%), young women view Obama's candidacy as more historic than Palin's quest for the Vice Presidency.
- Young Republicans, and young Republican women, are the most likely to see Palin's choice as VP as historic (61 and 68%, respectively). All other groups see Obama's candidacy as the more historic, defining choice of this election.
- Like McCain, Sarah Palin has a net negative fav/unfav rating among young voters, with only 37% viewing her favorably compared to 40% who view her unfavorably.
Reaching Young Voters
Rock the Vote's poll also shatters some myths about how young people participate in the election. One of the biggest stories this year has been the role of technology in engaging young voters. While many active young voters - hundreds of thousands to millions - have engaged the campaign through these technologies, the vast majority are still engaged primarily via word of mouth contact with their friends and family. These face to face, peer to peer conversations are still the primary way by which young people learn about and are engaged in this election cycle.
When it comes to learning about the campaigns, it is also important to realize that while new sites like Facebook and YouTube are playing an important and growing role, TV and Cable news remains a dominant player in how young people get their information.
Conclusion
There was not a whole lot of information that was new or surprising in the results found by Rock the Vote. Mostly, their results serve to solidify what we already know about young voters: they are a highly Democratic age group; the economy remains the #1 issue candidates must address to obtain their vote; young voters are paying attention more than ever and may turn out in record numbers for a third consecutive election cycle; peer to peer contact remains the most important and effective tool for reaching young voters.
The biggest piece of new information is the discovery that McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as the VP has energized the Republican base, but failed to move voters behind the Republican ticket. This will be useful as progressives continue to debunk Palin in the coming weeks.
Progressives have an historic opportunity here. As Celinda Lake stated during the conference call, we know that if a young voter picks a party in their first three major elections they rarely cross party lines again. For tens of millions of Millennials, who first voted in 2004, this is that third election.
Over the coming weeks, to maximize youth turnout, progressives will need to continue to hammer McCain/Palin hard on the economy, discuss the current economic crisis and what it means in terms of jobs, college affordability, and the ability of all americans to pay their gas bills and make ends meet. This will need to happen through stump speeches, but more importantly, through an on the ground field operation that emphasizes the kind of face to face conversations that are most influential in turnout out and engaging young voters.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by phone using professional interviewers September 8 – 17, 2008. It reached a base sample of 500 18-29 year olds nationwide, including 329 reached on landline phones and 171 reached on cell phones. There were also additional oversamples of 75 Latinos and 75 African Americans, for a total sample of 650 18-29 year olds. The data were weighted slightly by gender, race, age, party identification, and phone usage in order to ensure that they accurately reflect the population. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points.