The media loves to keep this a horse race. One of the ways they do this is with their electoral college projections, nearly all of which put Obama ahead.
For example, CNN has Obama 223 McCain 200. Looks nice doesn't it? Obama with a lead already....the only problem with this is that these projections don't really reflect the true race, in which Obama has a really tough battle ahead.
The idea that Obama can win actually depends on him holding all previously blue states and him flipping previously red states. OK, I know, this is obvious since the dems lost the last two elections!
These are the key states (data from Real Clear Politics):
NV - Bush 2000, 2004, McCain leading in recent polls
OH - Bush 2000, 2004, McCain leading in recent polls
VA - Bush 2000, 2004, McCain leading in recent polls
FL - Bush 2000, 2004, McCain leading in recent polls
NM - Gore 2000, Bush 2004 (<1% in both 200 and 2004), Obama leading in recent polls (+6)</p>
CO - Bush 2000, 2004, Obama leading in recent polls (+4)
IA - Gore 2000, Bush 2004 (<1% in both 200 and 2004), Obama leading in recent polls (+9)</p>
Forgetting about these states the electoral map stands at:
Obama 252 McCain 200
I think that at this point in the race, about 1 month from the election, with everything against McCain, any state in which he still leads in the polls and went for Bush in 2000 and 2004 you have to give to McCain - I say this because unless McCain shits himself during the debate I don't see how things can get much worse for him.
This gives McCain VA, NV, OH and FL bringing the electoral total to:
Obama 252 McCain 265
Which means Obama has to win all three of the remaining states - NM, IA and CO to win, if he loses just one we have the Palin-McCain administration.