OH-01: Steve Driehaus (D) versus Rep. Steve Chabot (R)
SurveyUSA. 9/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 3.9%.
Chabot (R) 46
Driehaus (D) 44
This is the first poll in OH-01 publicly released in months - since the beginning of July - and there shouldn't be any complaints for Democrats. The incumbent Chabot is under 50%, and is only two points ahead of Driehaus - essentially a negligible lead. This ought to be a tossup right until election day, and Chabot has staved off serious challenges in the past, but things look great right now.
Nota bene: Obama has a substantial lead in this district (which has a considerable black population). He merits a 52-43 edge over McCain, and that surely can't hurt Steve Driehaus' chances.
OH-02: Victoria Wulsin (D) versus Rep. Jean Schmidt (R)
SurveyUSA. 9/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 3.9%.
Schmidt (R) 48
Wulsin (D) 40
Decent numbers for Vic Wulsin in OH-02 as well, especially considering how ragingly Republican the district is. Daredevil Jean Schmidt has a substantial edge, but she's still under 50%, always bad news for the incumbent. There's an independent who has polled fairly well in the race as well, David Krikorian.
Schmidt remains extremely unpopular in the district - she is underperforming McCain by fully 10 points in the district, while Wulsin outperforms Obama by a single point.
OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (D) versus Steve Stivers (R)
SurveyUSA. 9/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 4%. (8/2-4 numbers)
Kilroy (D) 47 (47)
Stivers (R) 42 (44)
Eckhart (I) 5 (7)
A five-point lead is just fine for Kilroy, though she has been the beneficiary, as SSP notes, of considerable unanswered DCCC spending here. Kilroy has shown a small lead in all the polling publicly released to this point, and she's in a solid position with six weeks to go. This race should still be considered a tossup, of course, and it could go either way on election day, but Kilroy is doing a lot of things right so far.
OH-16: John Boccieri (D) versus Kirk Schuring (R)
SurveyUSA. 9/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 4%.
Boccieri (D) 49
Schuring (R) 41
These are the best numbers seen here for a Democrat. It's an open-seat race (a battle of two current State Senators) in a swing district (McCain 48, Obama 46). Boccieri has a fascinating background, and has, like Kilroy, been the beneficiary of a good deal of third-party spending. As such, one can expect this margin to close substantially when GOP-leaning third-party groups counter the DCCC's spending.
Overall, it's looking good for our chances to pick up at least one or two seats in Ohio, and there's a realistic chance (if a small one) at pulling in all four. Ohio won't just be a swing state at the presidential level; it could very well be instrumental in determining the size of our majority in the House.
On the web:
Steve Driehaus for Congress
Vic Wulsin for Congress
Mary Jo Kilroy for Congress
John Boccieri for Congress