We've had more polling out of PA in the last week than we have since the April primary. The good news is that Obama is ahead in every poll. The great news is that he is at or above 50% in 3 of the last 6 polls that cover this week only. McCain looks mired in the low to mid 40's. There are some outLIEr polls to be sure, but Obama is in a strong position.
So here are the breakdowns:
Survey USA (9/23-9/24): Obama 50 McCain 44
CNN/Time (9/21-9/23): Obama 53 McCain 44
ARG: (9/19-9/22): Obama 50 McCain 46
Fox/Rasmussen: (9/21): Obama 48 McCain 45
Allstate/Nat'l Journal (9/18-9/22): Obama 43 McCain 41
Strategic Vision (REPUBLICAN) (9/21-9/23): Obama 47 McCain 46
Clearly the Allstate result is a bit off, and Strategic Vision is a GOP outfit, so they are likely the outliers.
The overall average of these 5 polls is: Obama 48.5, McCain 44.3 (a 4.2 point lead). Without the National Journal or SV poll, the average is Obama 50.25, McCain 44.75 (almost a 5.5 point lead).
http://www.surveyusa.com/...
http://www.pollster.com
The SUSA poll is the only one I know of that has a lot of internals. SUSA is reporting a lot of crossover votes among Republicans and Democrats with Obama having the lead among indies. Other polls don't indicate that, but it could be explainable by an anti-Palin effect among moderates, and an anti-Obama effect among older Clinton voters. SUSA can have screwy internals, as they have McCain getting 15% of the african american vote, which seems ridiculous to put it mildly.
That said, SUSA's regional breakdowns show Obama leading in Southeast PA (59-36) and Southwest PA (51-44); McCain leading in South Central PA (59-33) and West Central PA (55-37). McCain has a slight lead in Northeast PA (48-45). Northeast PA (Scranton-Wilkes Barre) is the battleground for this state.
However, if one looks at the age demographic breakdowns, it is difficult to see how McCain can win the state. Obama leads in 3 of the 4 age demos, and is only behind among the over 65 group by 4 points. That spells a blowout victory for Obama in November.
This trend is consistent with a lot of national polls which show that Obama has maintained his big advantage among young voters, while McCain has lost his lead among seniors.
This is why Obama has moved up in a lot of polls (a few notwithstanding), and it suggests that Obama is beginning to take firm control of this race.