So, it's Friday, and the classic Friday news dump today appears to be John McCain's credibility. I called it Thursday, by the way, in an email to a conservative friend. It was not a tough call, I knew he'd make a bizarre declaration of victory, declare the crisis averted, and head off to Mississippi.
The other "dump" today was done by John McCain...in the polls. This was an unusually good polling day for Senator Obama. This is particularly notable, since many of the surveys were in the field on Wednesday and Thursday, after the "heroic display of leadership" by John McCain.
The national trackers tell a big part of the story. Whereas the average lead for Obama on Thursday was 3.25%, the average today exploded by over a full point, coming to rest at 5.00%. It is worth noting that since all four major tracking polls went on-line on September 11th, this is the biggest lead for either candidate. Meanwhile, we have 37 new polls in the states for you to digest.
PRESIDENTIAL STATE-BY-STATE POLLING
McCain's firewall red states appear to be getting a bit less red as the week wears on. In Virginia, in particular, McCain lost major ground this week. But Florida and Missouri followed, as well. If there is any bad news for the Democrat, it is that Montana is looking less likely as a target, and he is only beating McCain in California and Connecticut, not completely crushing him.
(Note: For those wondering, the name in parentheses after the results is my assessment of the momentum in the race represented by the poll. This is done in comparison to other recent polling. Your mileage may vary.)
CALIFORNIA--SurveyUSA: Obama 53%, McCain 43% (McCain)
COLORADO--American Research: Obama 48%, McCain 45% (Neutral)
CONNECTICUT--Pulsar Research: Obama 49%, McCain 35% (McCain)
FLORIDA #1--Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 47% (Obama)
FLORIDA #2--American Research: Obama 47%, McCain 46%
MICHIGAN--St. Vision (R): Obama 48%, McCain 45% (Neutral)
MISSOURI #1--Research 2000: McCain 47%, Obama 46% (Obama)
MISSOURI #2--SurveyUSA: McCain 48%, Obama 46%
MONTANA--Research 2000: McCain 52%, Obama 39% (McCain)
NEW HAMPSHIRE #1--St. Vision (R): Obama 46%, McCain 45% (Neutral)
NEW HAMPSHIRE #2--Suffolk: Obama 46%, McCain 45%
OREGON--Research 2000: Obama 53%, McCain 39% (Obama)
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg College: Obama 47%, McCain 43% (Neutral)
SOUTH CAROLINA--Research 2000: McCain 54%, Obama 39% (Neutral)
VIRGINIA--Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 45% (Obama)
WYOMING--Research 2000: McCain 57%, Obama 36% (Obama)
NON-PRESIDENTIAL POLLING
The blue trend we see in the national numbers also shows up downballot as well, according to the polls we see today. A few highlights include competing internals in Nevada's 3rd district that paint a decidedly bleak picture for incumbent Republican Jon Porter. I mean, when your OWN internals show you at 41% as an incumbent, that is not an encouraging sign. Also, a couple of public polls show that Democratic optimism in KY-02 and NY-26 may well be overstated.
FL-13--Feldman (D): Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) 44%, Christine Jennings (D) 40%
IL-10--Global Strategy: Rep. Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Dan Seals (D) 39%
KY-02--SurveyUSA: Brett Guthrie (R) 49%, David Boswell (D) 43%
MO-GOV #1--Research 2000: Jay Nixon (D) 51%, Kenny Holshof (R) 42%
MO-GOV #2--SurveyUSA: Jay Nixon (D) 54%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 37%
MS-SEN--InsiderAdvantage: Sen. Roger Wicker (R) 48%, Ronnie Musgrove (D) 43%
NH-GOV--Suffolk: Gov. John Lynch (D) 61%, Joe Kenney (R) 16%
NH-SEN #1--Suffolk: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 41%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 40%
NH-SEN #2--Research 2000: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 41%
NH-01--Research 2000: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44%, Jeb Bradley (R) 43%
NH-02--Research 2000: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 47%, Jennifer Horn (R) 34%
NM-01--G.Q.R (D): Martin Heinrich (D) 48%, Darren White (R) 42%
NV-03 #1--Anzalone-Liszt (D): Dina Titus (D) 46%, Rep. Jon Porter (R) 37%
NV-03 #2--Bolger (R): Rep. Jon Porter (D) 41%, Dina Titus (R) 39%
NY-26--SurveyUSA: Chris Lee (R) 48%, Alice Kryzan (D) 37%
OR-SEN--Research 2000: Jeff Merkley (D) 45%, Sen. Gordon Smith (R) 40%
SC-SEN--Research 2000: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) 51%, Bob Conley (D) 42%
SD-SEN--G.Q.R. (D): Sen. Tim Johnson (D) 61%, Joel Dykstra (R) 34%
UT-03--Anthony Brown: Jason Chaffetz (R) 39%, Bennion Spencer (D) 30%
VA-SEN--Rasmussen: Mark Warner (D) 60%, Jim Gilmore (R) 34%
WV-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D) 61%, Jay Wolfe (R) 33%
WY-01--Research 2000: Gary Trauner (D) 42%, Cynthia Lummis (R) 42%