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Rasmussen confirms Research 2000.

UK bookmakers give Obama a 70% chance of winning the election amazingly in line with "538."


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is Obama’s biggest lead since his convention bounce peaked with a six-point advantage. In fact, on only two days since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June has Obama enjoyed a lead bigger than he has today (see trends).


The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This six-point advantage matches Obama’s biggest lead yet (see trends). Obama is now viewed favorably by 56% of voters, McCain by 54%.


Remember, this past week we have had other polls touch that magic 50% mark.

Here is the importance of that support, from September 5, 2008;

He hit it this week. The big 5-0. No, I'm not referring to the age -- an age that, whatever anyone says, is not the new 30. It's still 50. It's something no one I know looks forward to unless they are ill and afraid they won't make it that far.

The big 5-0 in politics is different. Fifty-percent means that you have, at least at that moment, in that snapshot, assuming the polls are accurate, made the sale. It means that all you have to do is hang on to the people who are already with you, rather than persuade new ones, and you win.

Barack Obama hit the big 5-0 in two major polls this week. In both the Rasmussen Reports (Thursday) and the Gallup daily tracking (Tuesday) polls, he made it to a majority. It doesn't mean -- to quote Peggy Noonan, who now says it wasn't what she meant -- "it's over" for McCain. It doesn't mean it's time for the Obama gang to pick out their offices in the West Wing and start thinking drapes and decor. But it's still a major milestone.


What do "real gamblers" think of the American Election on the other sid of the pond?

Real odds, not manipulated intrade odds, are available from the "bookie" William Hill.

Here is a link to convert gambling numbers to percentages.

In the UK "bookmakers" estimate that it is a 70% chance Obama is the next President of the United States.

Originally posted to Libertarian Friend on Sat Sep 27, 2008 at 06:34 AM PDT.


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