A new USAToday/Gallup poll out on Saturday confirmed what other instant polls have shown (CBS, CNN) that Obama won the debate. Obama's standing among voters improved while McCain's was a wash or perhaps dipped a little.
http://blogs.usatoday.com/...
My take is that unlike various pundits who scored McCain higher than Obama by focusing more on substance (according to these pundits, not me who felt that Obama had more) and aggression, voters reacted more subconsciously than that by putting more emphasis on style and demeanor just as much if not more than substance/aggression.
Before we dig deeper, check out this fun video summarizing the debate.
I have no idea if the last debate will move any numbers. If I were to guess, I doubt polls will move much. I think that the "undecideds" will make up their minds closer to November 4th. Perhaps the polls will move a point or two in either direction which could be chalked up to statistical noice. But I suspect if one looked at the internals of these future polls because of the debate (and perhaps MORE because of McCain's erratic behavior these past 2 weeks), one may find that Obama improved on the "commmander-in-chief" question, likeability, and other leadership qualities.
The new USAToday/Gallup poll confirms that.
Who won the debate: Obama 46% McCain 34%.
Who offered the best proposal for change to solve the country's problems: Obama 52% McCain 35%
McCain: 21% more favorable view, 21% less favorable, 54% no difference, 23%% had more confidence in him to fix economy, 37% less confidence
Obama: 30% more favorable view, 14% less favorable, 54% no difference, 34% had more confidence in him to fix economy, 23% less confidence
The question is that why are many pundits saying that McCain won the debate while the viewers/voters said that Obama did? The answer is in 2 parts: Style & demeanor TRUMPS substance & aggression (IMO, Obama has just as much if not more substance than McCain but various pundits disagree). 2. McCain's and Obama's objectives on what each needed to achieve in the debate was different with Obama's threshold easier to be achieved.
STYLE & DEMEANOR:
Obama came across as presidential, likeable, and gracious (some may argue perhaps too much...LOL!). McCain came across as petty, rude, and condescending. People don't remember substance in time but they do remember how they felt about the person while they were debating. Obama's performance calmed people's fears about him while McCain's played into his recent negatives that he is erratic and angry.
An example of this is the debate I saw between Bill Clinton vs George Bush 41 in 1992. Bill Clinton came across as reassuring, someone who "feels your pain". Bush 41 looked at his watch which reinforced that he was "out of touch". After the debate I really didn't remember a word what either Bill Clinton or Bush 41 said but I do remember what I felt even to this day.
Always remember that people are really tuned into body language on a subconscious level which feeds into their visceral emotions (which is REALLY what people vote on, their gut & their heart). This is even MORE powerful than substance which feeds into their head (which sadly is really NOT what people vote on).
OBJECTIVES FOR THE DEBATE:
McCain's objective in the debate was to make Obama into a Sarah Palin at the top of the Democratic ticket. Sarah Palin is charismatic and draws huge crowds but doesn't have a clue about national and international affairs. Sarah Palin is really the "celebrity/empty suit" that McCain was trying to paint Obama as and who McCain was relatively successful running against in August. It's funny how that turned out that McCain would choose for his running-mate the caricature of what he wanted voters to see Obama as.
McCain used verbal and body language to belittle Obama during the debate. Because Obama is NOT a "celebrity/empty suit", that tactic FAILED miserably. Coupled that with McCain's grumpy demeanor, it was McCain who looked worse.
Obama's objective was to pass the "commander-in-chief" threshold. Holding his own and going toe-to-toe with McCain in a commanding but likeable way, Obama was able to pass that test. Perhaps even Obama's occasional "deference" to McCain which frustrated many supporters, made Obama more likeable and reasonable to swing voters who didn't see it that way.
Again Obama's objective was easier to achieve than McCain because Obama isn't "scary", has the temperament to be president, and is very intelligent.
Knowing that Obama won the debate, expect the McCain camp to do even MORE what they have been doing lately which is become MORE dramatic and erratic to try to switch the subject. McCain is a gambler at heart both literally and figuratively so expect many more hail Mary's until November 4th. McCain's favorite game to gamble is craps thus expect Mccain to give us more crap.
Obama's favorite game to gamble is poker so expect Obama to remain even keel and trudge along on his game plan that has been in place when he was up and when he was down with occastional tactical changes in response to McCain's theatics.