The 50-state strategy, while encouraging, is not realistic in the last month of the campaign.
Resources must be concentrated on the best prospects. I had hopes for Montana, but it looks like they will go for McSame.
If you were Obama's team, what states would you focus on and which would you abandon? I see a BIG EIGHT, and scaling back efforts in six.
My own list of prospects and discards. I have ignored all the states that I think are out of play for either candidate.
PROSPECTS:
Virginia: I think he'll get this one, and it could make up for some significant losses such as New Hampshire, which seems to still hold McSame in high regard.
Indiana: He surprised here in the primary. Few polls had him as close to Hillary as he was, which tells me that maybe the Hoosiers don't tell pollsters the truth. It's proximity to Illinois and the general economic pain there that McCain doesn't get make this a good prospect.
Ohio: Not sure why he doesn't have this one in the bag, but it's too big, too important not to go after.
Michigan: Same as Ohio. I think he's closing to salting this one away, but it's not there yet.
Florida--I think he's going to take the Sunshine state, but he's going to have to work for it and it will be close to the end, just as it was for Gore. Too many EVs and winning it will close off any chance for McSame.
North Carolina--It's a state in flux, just waiting to support Obama. Look at his rallies there in recent weeks. Picking off NC and VA is like winning Ohio.
Missouri--He's been rising big time, and their track record of always voting for the winner makes this a crucial state.
West Virginia--Campaign there with the Clintons. Only five votes, but it's hurting and surrounded by Obama propects and Obama states. I'd sooner spend money here now than Nevada.
DISCARDS:
Montana--Lots of Dem power, but it seems like recent polls have it shifting back to McCain.
Wisconsin--I think he has this state. Maybe some ad buys, but I wouldn't campaign here.
Pennsylvania--Same as Wisconsin.
Colorado, New Mexico--close, but the GOTV should help.
Nevada--Close, but I recall he had a loss to Clinton there and I just don't know that it's worth the time, energy and money. If McCain can have this much support while supporting Yucca, it's bleak.
YOUR THOUGHTS?