There's an awful lot of smug sarcasm around here about the VP debate. The GOP base has got awfully quiet of late as their girl has taken on a ton of water. But could the debate give her a second chance? It seems very unlikely, but in the words of Juror #8 (Henry Fonda) in "Twelve Angry Man"...
It's just possible!
Firstly, no need to play the low expectation game with Palin. Her reputation is in the toilet.
If she seems even marginally coherent - she's beaten expectations by a huge margin. Remember, everyone loves an underdog and Palin is almost certain to play the role with all the sweetness of a third-rate beauty queen. This is her last chance to get it right or she becomes a historical footnote, and that's gotta hurt an ego like hers, not to mention her gubernatorial future. And if she hits the hugely experienced Biden with a stray shot that gets any traction at all, her awful interview performances will be forgotten and she might, just might, be baaaaack.
Secondly, note to Biden. Keep Mouth In Check.
Up until now, Biden has had a free pass on gaffes (like FDR on TV) because everyone's watching Palin. But Friday is his big night too, and everyone's going to be tuning in. It only takes one major blunder and she just might look half decent. The last thing Joe wants is headlines. It's a certainty that his handlers are going to be telling him to keep it short, simple and McCain focused. The strategy will be to let her sink her own ship, but under the bright lights Joe might forget himself and go right after her. Bad idea. Just be really boring instead.
Thirdly, McCain's campaign has been all about stunts. And this is a perfect time to let one rip.
I'm guessing there's a big bear trap somewhere that her handlers are going to try and set. Whatever it is, It's hard to imagine she's got the chops to pull it off - but Joe needs to steer clear of anything that fails the smell test or suddenly all that sexist crap could rear its head again, and the McCain people will be spinning her as "ready" once more. The last thing we want is the Republican base to get all fired up again tightening the race in key battleground states when we should be pulling away. Something as dumb as Palin looking like a winner - even for a moment - could do it. These guys are grasping at straws.
Fourthly, This is damage limitation. Biden shouldn't try to win.
That's not normal for a debate. But this is no normal debate. There's little upside for us, except to see Palin put in a performance like she did with Couric, and for Biden to be a dull, virtually invisible passenger to the trainwreck. The best possible outcome is that this event is judged an anti-climax, so we can re-focus on the principals.
The upside of this debate is the rigid format that McCain's people demanded. It's bad for Palin because she's on her own, and it's good for Biden because he's less likely to get into a word tussle with her that he could lose.
Having said all that, this is still just the VP debate and unless something catastrophic happens it's unlikely to have much effect on the momentum that BO seems to be developing in the national and battleground polls.
But this campaign has defied most conventional wisdom.
Don't count her out.