Just my $.02, but this election was only ever about Obama. All we have been doing as an electorate, since the day Sen. Clinton conceded, has been vetting Obama to see if he's ready for the job.
The fundamentals of the election have dictated a change of course from the get-go. While the Democratic Party was left to decide between a partial-change candidate (Sen. Clinton) and a more aggressively different one (Sen. Obama), whoever came out of that would be president if they could survive the vetting.
Obama, the unknown, was in for some tough vetting, from both the press and opponents on both sides. Most of the country knew nothing about him, so before they could pull the lever for change, they had to make sure he was trustworthy. He proved to the party in his primary race that he could survive the tough Clinton-led vetting, and has now just about made it through the final round.
I think the best evidence of this is the way focus groups responded to Obama in the debate. McCain was screeching away about Obama's qualifications, but his aggressive posture made no impression. It seems like the biggest changes in the focus groups had to do with independent voters coming away comfortably impressed with -- and ready to vote for -- Obama. McCain got some low marks for his low blows, but otherwise the split opinions or no-opinion marks he got for his performance suggests almost ambivalence.
The second-best evidence is how nobody ever really seems to respond to McCain's campaign. Yes, the Palin nonsense temporarily changed the game, but when the furor died down he returned to the exact same numbers, suggesting that it was only a short-term story for which his campaign got exactly no credit. His hail mary last week didn't register for a second. His debate performance (which I thought was pretty good, in its repulsive way) was, as I said, dismissed. McCain remains to this day an absurd sideshow, and was never more than a potential, familiar-looking fallback plan in case Obama couldn't convince people of his readiness.
If I am right (a highly debatable prospect), then the following people deserve some credit:
- the Obama campaign, for a few things in particular: keeping the focus on Change, which reminds people that they don't need to bother looking at McCain; and for running a campaign and a candidate in a very even-handed, assuring manner. Barack never needed to draw blood from McCain, he just needed to look presidential.
- the Clinton campaign... which I didn't like, but which tested Obama strenuously while only a few people were watching.
- the candidate, for too many reasons to list, but suffice to say he's the right guy, through and through, for this particular event. Cool as the other side of the pillow, as the sports guys say.
- the electorate, for understanding that the first order of business is to pull of a political U-Turn in every facet of governance, if at all possible.
The election is not over, but IMHO if Obama continues to look presidential -- a complete layup for him -- then McCain has no chance. Whatever McCain tries, more screeching, a new VP?, whatever -- will make no difference. Unless Obama falls down on his own, he will be the 44th POTUS. Fingers crossed...