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Cross-posted at Facing South -- your source for news, politics and trends in the changing South. Note that TrueIndepdendent has another diary up about the NC poll results; this post has other new analysis. Thanks!
A new poll fresh from Public Policy Polling re-affirms what we argued last week: that North Carolina has emerged as a critical battleground state for 2008, with Obama pulling ahead.
Here are the numbers of the new PPP poll, results just released:
Barack Obama 47
John McCain 45
Bob Barr 3
The latest PPP poll also backs up our analysis from last week -- that the economy is what has made North Carolina a tight state, giving Obama the edge:
Over the last year there's been a strong relationship between the number of North Carolinians listing the economy as their biggest concern, and Obama's standing in the polls. In January when just 39% of voters said it was their biggest issue John McCain led by 14 points. In August with it up to 48% Obama trailed by just three. Last week with 58% listing it number one the race was tied, and now with the number up to a record 64% Obama has taken a small lead. He is up 55-38 among respondents citing the economy as their main concern.
Two other interesting pieces of information today, both working in Obama's favor:
(1) PALIN A DRAG IN NC: PPP has also released a poll documenting Sarah Palin's declining popularity in North Carolina. Here are the numbers:
DATE -- PALIN FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE
Sept. 9 -- 42/34
Sept. 28 -- 38/41
PPP's analysis:
The Sarah Palin pick has not worn well with North Carolina voters, as her net favorability has gone from +8 to -3 in the course of three weeks, for a negative shift of 11 points.
She is particularly unpopular with independents in North Carolina. 46% of them now say her selection makes them less likely to vote for John McCain compared to just 36% who say her spot on the ticket makes them more inclined to support him. Even among Republicans enthusiasm for her has dropped from 75% to 67%.
(2) BIG VOTER REG GAINS FOR DEMS IN NC: Over the weekend, the NC State Board of Election released its latest batch of voter registration numbers. Here are the details:
GROUP -- VOTER REG GROWTH IN 2008 / % OF TOTAL NC REG GROWTH
Democrats -- +207,900 / 53%
Republicans -- +33,527 / 9%
Ind/Libertarian -- +149,667 / 38%
African-American -- +130,402 / 33%
UPDATE: A commenter notes that this is a 3-tier battleground state, with the Gov and Sen races also tight. PPP has also released a poll on Dole/Hagan Senate race, with this finding:
Kay Hagan 46
Elizabeth Dole 38
Christopher Cole 6
Analysis:
Kay Hagan now has her largest lead yet in North Carolina's Senate race. She led by 5 points a week ago and a single point three weeks ago.
Particularly trouble for Dole is how well Hagan is connecting with white voters. She trails Dole just 47-38 with that group. Usually for a Republican to win statewide here they need at least a 20 point advantage with whites to offset overwhelming African American support for Democratic candidates.
UPDATE 2: Yes, PPP is a Democratic polling firm, and that must be taken into account. However, it's worth noting that at least one way pollsters can fudge data -- polling sample -- is roughly in line with NC. PPP polled 48% Dems/34% Reps. This is close to NC's actual voter reg breakdown, which as of 9/27/08 stands at 45% Dem/33% Rep.
PPP's results are also surprisingly similar to Rasmussen's last week -- which has slightly skewed GOP this year.
UPDATE 3: Another reason the PPP poll seems legit to me is that, over the course of the year, PPP has been pretty much in line with the rest of the pack in its NC polling re: McCain/Obama. I see a slight pro-Dem bias playing out, but it's actually shrunk with time -- and over the last 2 months has entirely vanished.
But it's just one poll, coming during an exceptional news week. It has a margin of error of 3%. We'll see how this plays out ...