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Today's Daily Kos Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up over McCain 51-41. All trackers are data from three days prior to posting, with R2K numbers from today (yesterday's numbers in parentheses) and the other trackers are from yesterday (previous day's data). LV=likely voter, RV=registered voter.

Today's trackers will have Sat-Mon post-debate data, and will not fully reflect post-debate sentiment. The trackers do, however, include McCain campaign suspension/resumption days, and it's the financial crisis that is driving these numbers.

                 Obama      McCain    MoE +/-   RV/LV
Today
Research 2000:  51 (51)    41 (42)    3         LV
Rasmussen:      51 (50)    45 (45)    2         LV

Yesterday
Diageo/Hotline: 47 (47)    42 (42)    3.2       RV  
Gallup:         50 (50)    42 (42)    2         RV

On successive days, Obama was up +9 Sat, +11 Sun and +11 Mon (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)

One poll to highlight today: Gallup on the assessment of crisis response (click the pic for more readable graphic.)

In terms of winning over the political center where most swing voters reside, however, the jury still seems to be out. Obama and McCain receive nearly identical ratings from political independents for their handling of the Wall Street crisis, and they're not positive. Only about a third of independents approve of the way each candidate has responded.

This poll was taken before the collapse of the vote. It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. But as of now, the markets are not impressed. And one thing we do know:

The worst-rated political players on the Wall Street issue both come from the Bush administration -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, one of the chief authors of the original bailout plan, and President George W. Bush himself. Only 28% of Americans approve of how each has responded to the recent financial problems. Of the two, however, Bush has a net score that is significantly worse, as 68% disapprove of his performance, compared with 51% disapproving of Paulson's. A much greater number have no opinion of Paulson's performance than of Bush's (21% vs. 5%).

Bush, by the way, is a Republican. He may not get his calls returned these days, but he is a Republican. That would be the same party McCain belongs to, and McCain, of course took credit for passing the bill that did not pass, after non-suspending his campaign and non-leading on the bill's progress. In fact, he not only screwed up his leadership photo op, he also managed to encourage the wingnuttiest of the House Republican wingnuts (it's socialism! Socialism, I tell you... like the Post Office, highways and Medicare!!) How great is that? (sarcasm).

"I don’t think this was a failure of leadership so much as a failure of followership," said Thomas Mann, a scholar on Congress at the Brookings Institution. "This is a function of a group of House Republicans who are philosophically opposed to doing anything like this bailout and are prepared to take the risk."

In the meantime, keep a close eye on the worldwide McCain/Republican market crash today (yesterday's was 777 points, most ever, and 1.2 trillion lost value.) The markets don't care for excuses.

Speaking of markets, note that Intrade is now Obama 61.6 - McCain 37.5, with Obama up and McCain down by ~4.6 since yesterday. IEM is at 68.3 - 30.5. And fivethirtyeight.com hit 83% chance of of an Obama presidency. Those markets don't care for excuses, either.

Bonus: Pollster.com now permits you to personalize your poll graph. Dislike internet polls? Want only robo-calls? You have the power. My version is national Obama-McCain without Zogby Internet.

Addendum: There's no gloating. The Gallup poll shows there's plenty of unhappy to go around about all institutions, but there is a leadership black hole in the WH right now that underlies the gridlock, and no one else wants to own the bill. That's a fact, reflected in the Gallup numbers.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:19 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  McCrackpot is in free fall (6+ / 0-)

    As he deserves to be!  They are now winding up the Caribou Barbie for her debate preview.  It should be interesting.

    "Is this the United States Congress or the board of directors of Goldman Sachs?" -- Dennis Kucinich

    by noofsh on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:21:21 AM PDT

  •  It's 51-41, right? (15+ / 0-)

    The internals, not this own post, have that information.  I suppose you are still updating it.  

  •  that mysterious and elusive 7-8 per cent (4+ / 0-)

    the totals generally add up to 92 or 93 per cent:  who's left?

    it can't be only nadar and barr voters, so i assume it's still undecideds

    to me, the big mystery has to be, how can anyone be undecided at this point???

    sigh

  •  What were the daily numbers? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT
    I am curious if yesterday polled similar to the previous couple of days.
  •  Err, today's numbers? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, sodalis

    The banner at the top of the homepage says 51-41, so that's what I'm guessing it is, but they're missing from the post itself.

    -dms

    Having trouble finding stuff on Daily Kos? This page has some handy hints and tricks.

    by dmsilev on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:23:23 AM PDT

  •  Holy canola. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cityvitalsigns, RJP9999

    North Carolina is pale pink on 538.  I never thought I'd see the day.

  •  Battleground Poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    axel000

    Here's a really stupid national poll, McCain 48 O 46.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    Republican site Real Clear Politics includes it in their national average. Anyone see something wrong with this picture?

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:24:28 AM PDT

  •  DemFromCT (0+ / 0-)

    DemFromCT, please remove the pollster thing from the end of the post. It crashes my browser :(

    Since the diary will stay on the front page all day, I won't be able to visit DKos because of it...

    It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

    by Friar on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:25:36 AM PDT

  •  ladies and gentlemen (0+ / 0-)

    we made contact..................

    Rabbit Season,Duck Season,Silly Season-Bugs,Daffy,Obama

    by bosshogg on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:25:37 AM PDT

  •  Reagan was 50-41-7 in 1980. (5+ / 0-)

    But I don't want to think landslide just yet.

    •  Shhhhhh (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLKRR, elmo, axel000

      Don't tell anyone that Obama is going to kick serious ass.  Let them be surprised; makes for a better election-night speech (which, by the way, I think should be themed "Let's Go America").

      I follow the scent of falling rain, and go to the place where it is darkest.

      by Bin Bin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:28:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  and 44 states (0+ / 0-)

      John McCain gets economic advice from subprime mortgage banking lobbyist

      by gaspare on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:30:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  My somewhat realistic hope is Obama (5+ / 0-)

        wins all states except:
        Alaska
        Arizona
        Utah
        Wyoming
        Montana
        Idaho
        North Dakota
        South Dakota
        Nebraska
        Oklahoma
        Texas
        Kansas
        Arkansas
        Louisiana
        Mississippi
        Alabama
        South Carolina
        Georgia
        Tennessee
        Kentucky

        And Obama wins: 380-158 EC, about 53%-45% popular vote.

        Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

        by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:41:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  that`s about right (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          duha, axel000

          These 20 sates will never vote democratic in the near term unless it`s a white southern democrat running, then you have a shot at Kentucky, West Virginia and Arkansas.
          Add West Va. to that list no way will they vote for a black man with a muslim name.

          •  yeah I didn't include WV (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SLKRR

            there was one poll that showed him only 4 behind but I doubt he has a chance.  I really didn't add it because I want all the MSM pundits to eat crow for the thousands of times they concerned trolled Obama and the 'white working class'.

            Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

            by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:53:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  disagree (0+ / 0-)

            I think rapidly urbanising GA, AK and the mountain states are all achievable too, though not this time.  And AZ should be in reach without McCain in the mix.  Just think who the GOP will run in '12 and how Obama will stack up.

            •  I think they run an ideologue of some bent (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              elmo, shenderson

              and get beat badly in 2012 but do well down ticket.  They will have to find themselves as a party after 2008.  There will be a big struggle between those that want to go populist like Huckabee, those that want to stay corporate like Romney, and those that want to go religious right like Palin.  I think the libertarian wing is done with GOP establishment.  I don't think the VP debate on Thursday has much bearing on the race in 2008, but it will have a lot of bearing on 2012.  If Palin redeems herself, she'll be in the driver's seat.  If she does badly, I think she'll make the GOP wary to run any real Religious Right candidate ever again in the near future (Bush was always a phony Religious Right, true Rockefeller republican).

              Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

              by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:59:29 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  a strong debate performance won't be enough (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                axel000

                we're both assuming McC loses big; Palin will get sucked down even if she is a barnstomer for the next few weeks IMO.

                Parties don't respond well to being thrashed.  I think they will make stupid decisions and won't be able to escape the culture wars lens (remember McC is only an accidental candidate, let through by Rudy's strange decision-making and the GOP's assumption they would be facing HRC...).  I agree they will recover downticket but if Obama does as well as I think he can, he will be a 'he restored our national pride' president, not a black man...

                •  I think Palin has a chance to recover (0+ / 0-)

                  from being on a ticket that loses big mainly because the GOP base loves her and the GOP base doesn't like McCain.  They are voting for him of course, but they haven't liked him through most of his career, and I think they will just trash him mercilessly and not hold it against her, if she does well at the debate and, after being unshackled post-debate, does well in the last month of the campaign.

                  Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

                  by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:15:24 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  her fav/unfavs are -11 (0+ / 0-)

                    and her national career is at risk.

                    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

                    by Greg Dworkin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:20:43 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  oh I know she is days away from not having (0+ / 0-)

                      any national career and just being a laughing stock.  Her recovery is based on doing a great job on Thursday, and opening herself up to the media and doing great up until the election, which they'll lose big no matter what happens with her.

                      If Palin does anywhere close to Couric interview level on Thursday McCain's campaign is finished.

                      Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

                      by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:28:47 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                •  ok, but the bar is so low (0+ / 0-)

                  a "strong debate performance" means she gets out of there without the whole audience laughing every time she speaks.

        •  I disagree (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chris Coleridge

          A 10 point Obama victory means that states like AZ, MT, ND, TX, AR, LA and GA could go for Obama.

          It will turn them into battleground states. Obama will win some of them and he will lose some of them. But it will definately put them in play...

          It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn

          by Friar on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:00:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well my thoughts were an 8 point victory (0+ / 0-)

            Clinton won in 96 by 8 points and won the EC 379-159, basically the same.

            Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

            by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:09:59 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  RE: Well my thoughts were an 8 point victory (0+ / 0-)

              I think there are a lot of people who are just plain not being honest in their poll responses.  We must remember that Clinton is white and that's why he was  able to win with such a slight edge.  Obama needs to be up by more than 15% points to insure a win.  

              •  While I don't disagree with you (0+ / 0-)

                Though I think 15 pts is a little far out, I have a different memory about the primaries. Except for NH, I remember Obama overperforming in a lot of states where he was pretty much behind or just ahead by a few points on voting day. I point to places like Texas, which  Hillary was ahead. Obama closed the gap in Pennsylvania down from a double digit deficit; he narrowed the gap and almost won Indiana; he overperformed in NC, and I think might have had a chance to win California if it were not for early voting. He was always polling behind, but was able to narrow the gap in a lot of places, more than he's given credit for, mostly because he got his hat handed to him in Kentucky and WV.

    •  Not with five weeks to go, he wasn't (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SLKRR

      You don't have to believe me -- check Teddy White's In Search of America: The Making of the President, 1956-1980.

  •  Bad economies (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SLKRR, flight2q, shenderson

    Always favor Dems. Voters seem to have an instinctive memory for the fact that Democratic administrations have outperformed Republican ones.

    If only they stopped electing Republicans during the good times, too, we'd be set.

    "Instead of prosperity trickling down, the pain has trickled up..." - Barack Obama.

    by Bobs Telecaster on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:27:02 AM PDT

    •  pulling up the ladder (0+ / 0-)

      "times are good, so I'll be rich soon, better elect a repug who won't tax me" vs "times are bad, a dem will protect me".  It's one of the number one frames we have to break.  But it's proving pretty hard...Obama will, I predict, rival or surpass Reagan in the 'national self-definition' arena, which may help a lot...

    •  because most recessions happen under repubs (0+ / 0-)

      so people vote for the Dems to straighten things out. Carter was a bit of an exception, but Reagan got in and quickly fucked things up worse and was in danger up until 83, when his tax increases began to kick in, saving his political butt...Bush 1? recession of 90-91. Bush 2? The whole freakin decade so far...and yet NPR reports this morning McCain still leads among suburban voters. Criminy....I guess the cities have to win this election for us.

  •  one small leap for man (0+ / 0-)

    one giant leap for mankind...........  

    Rabbit Season,Duck Season,Silly Season-Bugs,Daffy,Obama

    by bosshogg on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:27:03 AM PDT

  •  Isn't there an apples and oranges problem daily? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    coelomate

    Comparing today's R2K/Kos poll with yesterday's polls from the other operations removes the analysis one step from reality every day.   Given that what we're dealing with this far in advance of the elections is trendlines rather than raw data, the validity of the comparison is sacrificed in favor of promptness, particularly at a time (like perhaps now) when the polls are moving relatively quickly, at least by polling standards.

    It's wonderful to see the data so early, and great that we have full transparency here with internals, as opposed to most of the others, but as someone who's spent way too much of his time over the last several years analyzing studies (and again, I'm not talking about how this study is designed, because there are issues there too, just as there are with every survey), comparing today with yesterday isn't always terribly useful.  Come to think of it, that's kind of how Hillary lost.

    Perhaps you have a suggestion as to how to get around this very real concern.  Otherwise, wonderful work.

    Let me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices and jobs.--Herbert Hoover, 1932

    by lindsayin72 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:28:21 AM PDT

    •  the cycle don't move that fast (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sdf, duha, Chris Coleridge

      most of the polls are changing a point a day, really insignificant.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:38:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This was the answer I was hoping not to hear. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        coelomate

        Sorry to belabor the point, and I won't post on it again after this, but even intuitively when a lead is only a few points, and this lead is only a few points, when you factor in the margin of error, which is on the high side, a point or two is important.  Statistically, possibly even more so.  Saying it's insignificant really kind of invalidates otherwise decent work.

        This was the answer that I was most hoping not to hear because it speaks to a lack of caring about rigor and accuracy.  You won't find this sort of thing at, say,  FiveThirtyEight.  

        What you do is nice, and perfectly decent for people who may want a general idea but don't care about accuracy, but the information value takes a big hit--if it came down to the wire, and the race tightened back up again, you'd be writing on election day with out of date information.  If we're going to be better than the other side, we need to do better work than they do.

        Thanks again for responding.

        Let me remind you that credit is the lifeblood of business, the lifeblood of prices and jobs.--Herbert Hoover, 1932

        by lindsayin72 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:52:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  huh? (0+ / 0-)

          If he failed to identify yesterday's figures as yesterday's, I would see your beef. As it is, I'm mystified.

          ...even intuitively when a lead is only a few points, and this lead is only a few points, when you factor in the margin of error, which is on the high side, a point or two is important.  Statistically, possibly even more so.

          I can't tell what this actually means. Arguably, the larger the margin of error, the less a point or two matters. At any rate, DemFromCT offered a statement of fact, not the 'close enough for government work' handwave that you apparently read into it.

          Please understand that all of these are multi-day trackers, so I don't know how one could avoid "writing on election day with out of date information." I don't see how providing (and clearly identifying) the most recent information available evinces "a lack of caring about rigor and accuracy."

        •  I don't get what you're saying (0+ / 0-)

          fivethirtyeight uses a rigorous computation model, as does pollster.com and I encourage everyone to check them daily. They are superb sites, which i am not trying to duplicate.

          The MoE of an individual day is 5.1, which we publish. We also transparently publish the internals of the R2K poll for everyone to see. That is our primary function.

          I add context, which you can agree or disagree with. it has nothing to do with artificial rigor. I don't believe people are incapable of seeing 'yesterday' and 'today' and fail to put it into context themselves. When the polls have a significant change in a political context (not significant in a statistical context), we publish an afternoon update.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:06:42 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  McCain and GOP are under massive pressure now (4+ / 0-)

    and McCain new skyrocketing taxes ad I think will backfire, especially with it ending with a little baby at the end.  I mean, what the fuck, why didn't they just have a terrorist come and stab it or something.  A baby? for real.   This ad will offend and the retort will be simple, I don't remember taxes skyrocketing when Clinton was president.

    The GOP blew it big time Friday by blowing up a deal that they could have voted against AND ran against.  Then they blew again yesterday by trying to let the bill barely slip through but then failing even that, then whining about why it failed.  On top of McCain claiming to have brokered the deal in the morning which then made him look like a jackass by 4pm.  The GOP is really flailing now.  

    We need to keep up the pressure and throw the GOP an anvil and NOT TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED.

    John McCain gets economic advice from subprime mortgage banking lobbyist

    by gaspare on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:30:04 AM PDT

  •  DANGER WILL ROBINSON ! When Obama wins (3+ / 0-)

    he will have OFGRMCU.  (One Freakin' Giant Republican Mess to Clean Up.)

    You have exactly 10 seconds to change that look of disgusting pity into one of enormous respect!

    by Cartoon Peril on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:30:07 AM PDT

  •  DemFromCT: Correction needd. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, gchaucer2

    Opening sentence.  Still says 51-42.

    Love how the great divide keeps getting dividier.

    -

  •  PalinFav-UNvaorable now -11!! nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kierville, coelomate
  •  This is good news. (0+ / 0-)

    Can't wait to see what the other polls do today... I want some more state polling!

  •  pleae stop. this is addictive! let's see (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shenderson, HirsuteKantian

    35 days left to go...51+35=86

  •  European economic news: (11+ / 0-)

    Irish government this morning (2 hours ago) had done what needed to be done: it guaranteed all loans, mortgages, overdrafts etc... to all banks and people for the next 2 years (which is the estimated time to economic recovery of sorts). Bold move, no bailout, no fuss. Paulson, eat your shorts and go back to the drawing board!

  •  5-day averages (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimberley, duha, ebleyes

    Here are the five day averages for the Kos poll:

    Date  M%__  O%__  O-M
    9/12  46.2  46.6  0.4
    9/13  45.8  47.0  1.2
    9/14  45.6  47.2  1.6
    9/15  45.4  47.2  1.8
    9/16  44.8  47.6  2.8
    9/17  43.8  48.4  4.6
    9/18  43.2  48.8  5.6
    9/19  42.6  49.0  6.4
    9/20  42.4  49.2  6.8
    9/21  42.6  49.2  6.6
    9/22  42.8  49.0  6.2
    9/23  43.2  48.6  5.4
    9/24  43.2  48.6  5.4
    9/25  43.2  48.4  5.2
    9/26  43.0  48.8  5.8
    9/27  42.8  49.2  6.4
    9/28  42.2  50.0  7.8
    9/29  41.8  50.4  8.6
    

    These numbers are derived using the daily percentages and sample size for five days going back from the listed day on each line.  The total sample size ends up being around 1800, which should have a margin of error below the 3% for the three day rounded numbers (2.3% if the formula I was given is correct).  The earliest numbers will be slightly stale, but this five day average helps to show more general trend movements by smoothing out noise present in shorter samplings.

  •  I don't want to make a short diary so I will (6+ / 0-)

    ask it here....  did anyone just hear Andrea Mitchell just throw Newt Gingrich under the bus on "Morning Joe"?

    The Big Lie, the Big Scam, and the Big Power Grab pretty much sum up Republican politics. - Dallasdoc 9/3/08

    by shortgirl on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:35:45 AM PDT

  •  Successive days discrepency? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kimberley, duha, Chris Coleridge

    On successive days, Obama was up +9 Sat, +11 Sun and +9 Mon (MoE +/- 5.1 for individual days.)

    Shouldn't that be +9, +11, and +11?

  •  Bombshell Just now on Morning Joe (14+ / 0-)

    Andrea Mitchell just said Newt Gingrich up till the last moment of the bail-out bill was trying to kill it so he could start his Presidential campaign for 2012.Someone needs to get and save the video of her saying this.

  •  I like those #'s (0+ / 0-)

    I won't get excited though

    Go Barack & Joe

  •  These types of numbers... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AtomikNY

    make canvassing much more fun.

  •  Do We Have Swing State Polls? (0+ / 0-)

    Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, etc?

    Lindsay Lohan has better judgment than 40% of Americans. She endorsed Obama and Biden.

    by Gorestro on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:42:07 AM PDT

  •  this poll is just another of example of gotcha (14+ / 0-)

    journalism.  this isn't the time to fix blame but i blame daily kos.

  •  Did you know that McCain is doing really well (6+ / 0-)

    with white male millionaires over the age of 60?  Why can't Obama close the deal with white male millionaires over the age of 60?  He must be very concerned that his decision to raise their taxes will come back to haunt him in 5 weeks.  Obama is really struggling with key demographics right now.

    Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

    by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:49:15 AM PDT

  •  Got polled last night (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    askew, Glic

    I didn't catch who was doing the polling. They asked which candidate I was voting for and how sure I was that I was voting for him. When I told them I was completely sure I was voting for Obama, they quietly thanked me and hung up.

    Considering I live in NH, one of the swing states, I suppose that helps. ^^

    Robert A. Howard, Tangents Reviews

    by Tangent101 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 04:52:18 AM PDT

    •  doesn't sound like a poll (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Friar, kat68, Tangent101, AtomikNY

      unless there were several more questions. Sounds more like a campaign field operation.

      (I suppose it could be a student exercise. I can't think of any professional outfit that would poll like that.)

      •  Thanks :) (0+ / 0-)

        I was a bit curious about that. I'd been polled earlier on a different subject (television viewing habits and if I'd be willing to go to see different events in movie theaters... I was one of those results that skews the curve seeing that I don't watch television, don't go to movies more than a couple times a week, and generally get my entertainment through reading) and even with other "strong" results (multiple 1s), they went through with the rest of the questions.

        So yeah, it probably was a campaign poll, and likely either a student one or one pro-Obama seeing that they didn't try to cram down false facts about Obama down my throat. ^^;;

        Robert A. Howard, Tangents Reviews

        by Tangent101 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:24:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I got a call just like that in VA two nights ago (0+ / 0-)

        I managed to ask the lady calling who she was working for before we hung up as it was a VERY fast call.  It was the DNC.

        So the above poster is probably right.

        Ah no, it's always just my luck to get/ One perfect rose

        by kat68 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:48:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I am not counting on it, but wouldn't it be nice (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shenderson
    if Obama just kept pulling away?  Ten points is a huge lead, but how about a fifteen point lead?  After these two close elections in a row we had, we could use a blowout.  With a somewhat unenthusiastic GOP I do think that if Obama can hold this lead through the next couple of weeks they will start to mail it in.  McCain himself won't of course, and they will go super negative.  But the rank and file could stop working it.  As I said myself, I am not counting on it.  But jeesh that would be sweet.
    •  I completely agree (0+ / 0-)

      if Obama can do it, they'll fold up their tents, try to survive their House and Senate races, and think about getting their party back in order for the 2010 midterms.  They know they are paying the price for Bush this election.  If Obama is up big 2 weeks from now I think the rank and file will just give up any serious GOTV, blast Bush for leading their party to such dire straits, blast McCain for running a terrible campaign, and start working on where they are going to take their party.

      Shotgun weddings and Sugar Mommas. Republican family values in 2008.

      by duha on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:05:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I keep imagining this like a real race (0+ / 0-)

    Obama has stayed steady and focused, and right now it seems McCain has tripped over his own shoelace and is now in mid-air, limbs flailing about wildly, staggering off toward the edge of the track, about to fall flat on his face.

    It's gonna take one hell of a comeback for him to win this thing at this point. I believe it is high time for cautious optimism about this election.

  •  Obama 74% McCain 16% (10+ / 0-)

    OK, it's worth nothing because it's a survey of Australians, but I thought it might prove what impeccable taste we have as a nation :-)

    ALMOST three-quarters of Australians want Barack Obama to win the US presidential election while only 16 per cent back John McCain, the latest snapshot of Australian attitudes to a range of foreign policy issues shows.

    Sydney Morning Herald: Obama wins by a landslide

  •  This is the one . . . (0+ / 0-)

    . . . that matters.

    It looks good, but the election's not today, it's in 5 weeks.  A candidate should always run like they're a 5-10 points behind, but with the momentum.  

    bg
    __________

    "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

    by BenGoshi on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:05:57 AM PDT

  •  VERY Important: Do. not. gloat. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elmo, axel000

    Well, actually, on second thought, maybe it isn't so important. So how's this:

    Hey Johnny McCain, you silly little bitch, how do you feel about the fact that you're getting you lame, lying, spiteful, pathetic ass kicked?

    or this:

    Hey Johnny Mac: Why don't you come over here and lick my balls? Oh, what's that? You can't here me? Oh, I'm sorry... [pulling out megaphone and raising it to mouth] ... There: that's better: I said, Why don't you come over here and lick my balls?

    or how about this:

    Hey John: You know, this winning/losing thing--it's not really an either/or proposition like you made it seem when you said you'd rather lose an election than lose the war. So how do you feel about the fact that you've lost your integrity and are losing the election and have already lost us the war in Iraq by stupidly and arrogantly contributing to starting it in the first place?

    or maybe simply:

    Goodness, you sure do suck, John.

    (Or this, or this, or this...)

    When Jesus said, "Love your enemies," he probably didn't mean kill them.

    by porktacos on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:08:33 AM PDT

  •  I wish I could be happier about this. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    elmo, StuffOfInterest

    But these numbers are so good, because the economy is so bad.

    Pass the Bailout. Our future is at stake.

    by OReillysNightmare on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:13:53 AM PDT

  •  I was a white male millionaire for Obama but (5+ / 0-)

    because of the financial meltdown,I am no longer quite a millionaire and I am even stronger for Obama.With my house I am still a millionaire but I don't count it because its not for sale.

    If Obama wins by 10 points or close to that margin,the red states will fall like dominos,the Rethugs will be reduced to a Southern party plus 4 plains states and 4 mountain states.

  •  Thank God finally (0+ / 0-)

    for those who hate long comments, stop! don't read....

    It isn't a big enough spread yet.... this should be a landslide. I appreciated the diarist who put forth the article on "investment psychology" and the human weakness of throwing good money after bad (couldn't help but laugh when the poll showed most had stayed in relationships too long).  
    Perhaps also some of the stuff I am reading about neuroplasticity plays in that too... the neurons that fire together wire together and it takes time to atrophy and rewire.... the GOP base has been listening to the same soundbites since before Bush's election of God/country as well as their pastor's promise of wealth..... so a double whammy
    So, now I begin my deconstruction campaign...to the just left of the extreme "Right Christians".... and those soundbites go something like this:
    Jesus brought a message of "love one another" the only time he raged was at the money changers...the ones who promised favor from God in exchange for money....  The New Testament is a playbook for humility and sharing.... when asked about Roman's taxes he responds give Ceasear what is his... the tax...without outrage and a call to arms...instead he focused on the individual- both heart and mind - to bring forth a faith that "loving one another" was the only rule....and tried to demonstrate that the Kingdom of God was "at hand"...here now among us in our hearts if we chose... the promise of eternal life among loving souls the final testament for that crowd.
    One must notice in Acts that the wealthy man and woman who join the living community of (I guess we could say socialists) these new followers of their Christ hand over their wealth to their community.... and yet an old Man is struck dead on the spot b/c of his declaration that he contributed all he had...doesn't that sound just over the top?  God killed him?  
    Well, I suppose, but to one who claims Christianity as their guide to polotics... it should mean that when one claims the community of Christians as their own that the sharing (and witholding by lying) is real...or suffer God's wrath.
    Weird how the self professed and self righteous Christian Right is the most vocal about not sharing (now with the bailout as well... or any number of social programs, or immigration - you name they defame it)...has been eating a steady diet of "wealth and prosperity are yours as beleivers"  "God wants you to have wealth".... which blows me away... I can't find a place in the NT that advocates the "deserving of wealth" over "Charity" of soul and spirit (which usually leads to sharing both love and money).
    Somehow the progaganda machine (whether pastors trying to fill the collection plate or more menacing the thoughful program of propaganda by politically motivated GOP) has caused this crowd to cling to the idea that voting GOP is akin to confirming their religion and getting rich and somehow that their "out reach" should be to convert the heathen rather than take care of the community of either beleiver's or their neighbors... sharing I think is the key word and they are want to do that.....  whether through taxes or regulation to protect others....
    I won't keep writing this is too long anyway... but it is important as exposing the underlying selfishness that informs this cowd as the extremes of the End Times for which they hold a ticket....
    I know everyone hates long comments and religion here.... but this knowledge - what does the NT really mean..is the weapon to tear down the propgand they are being fed on Clear Channel and TV preaching and GOP baloney.
    There is a class of fiscal/ideology GOP that are true to their party... but it's not the ones that cite their Christianity as the motivation..
    it's 5;20 am.... another sleepless night....and I don't feel like editing this - so sorry about typos..and of course we all have more to say on this topic..just thought I would throw out the hyprocrisy in black and white print....

  •  60+ numbers are interesting in Research 2000 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    kat68, Colonial82

    60+ Mccain  46 Obama  41

    looks like some of the old folks are waking up.

    Anthropologists for human diversity; opposing McCain perversity

    by Denise Oliver Velez on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:26:23 AM PDT

    •  Well, the elderly are aware of their mortality (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Colonial82

      and thus of McCain's mortality as well. And then they see who takes over should something happen to this 72-year-old cancer survivor.

    •  +60 Voters (0+ / 0-)

      I don't understand why the old folks would want McCain.  My Medicare is "screwed," thanks to Medicare Part "D".  I'm paying more than $260 a month for prescriptions and that doesn't include the "donut" hole.  The first year of "D" was great.  All of my 15 prescriptions were covered.  Now, only about half of them are covered.  I have to eat, pay for a place to stay, etc., and sometimes have to make a choice between food and medication.  Interesting, I thought that Bush's Part D was the solution!!!

      I get a higher yearly cola increase from democrats than republicans and better benefits overall.  The dems are not talking about privatizing social security.  Guess what would have happened to a lot of us old folks in the last few days if social security had been privatized?

      Hey old geezers, wake up!!!

  •  It's beginning to lool a lot like....FDR. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Colonial82, axel000

    Obama taking over from the relegated to irrelevent joke status Bush will be like FDR taking over from the relegated to joke status Hoover.

    McCain...with one of the lead stories being the editor of on Newsweek calling for the replacement of McCain's "irresponsible" and "unqualified" VP pick...his "fundamentals of the economy are sound"...his "I don't know much about the economy" don't help him much.  

    His derailing the first bailout won't help him, his failure to get House Republicans to vote for the second bailout will likely add to the weight of his cement boots.

  •  What's up with RCP? (0+ / 0-)

    They got the same numbers since 9/28.

    Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes -- Thoreau

    by cityvitalsigns on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 05:57:26 AM PDT

  •  What seriously disturbs me. (0+ / 0-)

    Undecideds (half of them) are buying McCain's bullshit.  

    This is the number Obama has to pay attention to.  They are still listening to McCain and are buying it.  

    I expect the next few days Obama will start to come down a little.  If they were listening to McCain before, they may be inclined to listen to the outrageous "Politics first, country second" meme McCain was shoving yesterday.  Take what you've done and fling it at the other guy.  

    Obama will need to show some "leadership".  We had hoped quiet, steady leadership had gotten through to them with the debate.  And I know it did.  But when there's urgency, some sense of urgency that McCain can't commandeer may be in order.  

    Obama's got to win this thing.  That that isn't obvious to 60% of independents right now is disturbing.  

  •  Diageo/Hotline also has McCain stuck at 41% today (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    scribeboy

    Obama remains at 47%.

    Also, Nate has an excellent review of that fucked up Battleground outfit that keeps giving McCain a +2% differential. Nate got their internals and it turns out that they give a huge weight to geezers and almost nothing to young voters. Weirdos.

    18-34    17%
    35-44    12%
    45-64    40%
    65+      31%

    While the 2004 census is:

    18-34    26%
    35-44    17%
    45-64    38%
    65+      19%

    http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...

    Timid men prefer the calm of despotism to the tempestuous sea of liberty ::Thomas Jefferson::

    by Jeremy10036 on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:08:34 AM PDT

  •  TODAYS RASMUSSEN O 51 M 45 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Davidsfr, StuffOfInterest

    Good news and bad for Obama.He is staying over 50% but the number of people that think he is to inexperienced to be president is 46% the highest that number has ever been.
    Keep in mind that is probably all McCain potential voters. Plus seems like a push poll question. Ras always asked if Obama is to inexperienced and if McCain is to old.
    Anyway seems like Obama has broken through the 50% barrier and rasmussen pushes undecided to pick so not to many more voters for McCain to pick up.

  •  Drip drip drip (0+ / 0-)

    McCain has been losing Latinos in this poll at the rate of 1 point a day for the past week. New Mexico is in the bag and Colorado looks better and better. As for Arizona, a boy can dream...

  •  Help me understand... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HudsonValleyMark

    Guys,
     Maybe someone who knows about the internals of the state polls could help me out here.  Obama is ahead by about 15 points in the midwest by this poll, but there is only 1 midwest state that has him with a pollster average anywhere near +15 (Illinois) and many that have him way behind (Texas, Arkansas, etc)
    How can this average out to +15?  It doesn't add up.
     Either these midwest numbers are too optimistic, or the so-called tossup states are really blowouts for Obama.  I realize that state polls lag, but this is a huge difference.  It predicts blowout wins in all the blue/purple midwest states.  What gives?  

    •  Since when are TX and AR in the midwest? (0+ / 0-)

      3 June 2008: I join the Democratic Party

      by Rorgg on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 07:48:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  about a 6-point MoE (11 on the margin) (0+ / 0-)

      for the Midwest region (n = 304). There could be a deeper problem, but it could well be a sampling quirk.

      Worth keeping in mind when people start talking about subgroup trends: the subgroup margins of error are larger.

      •  also large states can dominate (0+ / 0-)

        is west just CA, is NE just NY/NJ/CT? etc

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:19:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  not sure what you mean (0+ / 0-)

          The poll result should be more or less a weighted average, so certainly CA would heavily influence the West results. But the commenter's specific point about the Midwest, well....

          I will take a few moments to collate Kerry's vote shares by R2K region.

        •  for what it's worth (0+ / 0-)

          I've been wondering what to make of these regions...

          margins by region

          	       Kerry 2004	Obama per R2K
          Northeast: +12.1% (55.5-43.4)	 +34 (63-29)
          South:	   -12.5% (43.3-55.9)	 -13 (40-53)
          Midwest:    -6.6% (46.3-52.9)	 +15 (54-39)
          West:	    +0.7% (49.6-49.0)	 +15 (52-37)
          
          (The 0.1 discrepancies are due to rounding.)

          I'm just saying. It would be interesting to pull in pollster.com and/or 538 figures, so we'd have a better read on what is change, what is noise, and what might even be dreck.

          •  it's of interest because of (0+ / 0-)

            the idea that McCain's South strength masks weakness elsewhere; Obama has seemed to do better than Kerry, but the South is the South.

            "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

            by Greg Dworkin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 02:50:16 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  well, here is a rough 538 workup (0+ / 0-)

              All I've done is tried to pull in 538's current projections (not snapshots -- I went for the things in color!), and used them to "estimate" the vote if the same number of votes were cast as in 2004. Obviously that isn't correct, but it's less wrong (especially within regions) than simply averaging the projections.

              I've got Obama +14.3 in the Northeast, -5.1 in the South, +2.1 in the Midwest, and +7.9 in the West (as defined by R2K).

              So, I'm not sure that this whole South-masking thing will hold up -- although it is very possible that Nate Silver's algorithm is doing weird things in the absence of fresh polling data from many states. Think of this as a thought experiment.

    •  That's it exactly! (0+ / 0-)

      Thanks HudsonValleyMark for your number massaging.  It  looks like the explanation is in your numbers.  The poll averaging process works in 2 ways: a) averaging different pollsters by region brings the variance (and hence the +/-) much lower than you get in an individual day poll, which ends up agreeing with the overall average because b) the intrapoll variance is diminished by the region averaging.
        So, we find out that an individual day's region numbers are meaningless.  Presumably they have about 4x the margin of error that the 1-day (5%) numbers have.  In other words the signal is smaller than the noise.
        Thanks for your efforts.  I'm still a little spooked by the R2K regional numbers being so consistent day after day, but my math brain tells me I shouldn't pay any attention to that!  Cheers.

  •  Beware the voter who isn't talking - (0+ / 0-)

    The Sunday NYT magazine had an interesting commentary that was nominally William Safire's On Language column but in fact is an important notice for Obama supporters:

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    All polls become null and void as of November 4.

    Many people are polite and supportive in public, but their private behaviour differs. There is no ability to affect this on Nov. 5

    - Dissent is Intellectually Healthy

    by Joe in Atl on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 06:41:40 AM PDT

  •  removing Zogby internet (0+ / 0-)

    was like a load lifted, even when it didn't make dramatic or positive changes for the democratic numbers (viz North Carolina). Just having the damned discredited pollster out of the mix allows a clearer view, especially at the state level of vital and sensitive battlegrounds like Minnesota.

    Playing with the sensitivity of the trendlines gives a nice bit of insight as well.

  •  Forget the polls! Just think we're way BEHIND!!! (0+ / 0-)

    Complacency and self-congratulations are not the way to go 35 days BEFORE the voting begins.

  •  ARG Nat'l: Obama 49 McCain 45, 3 state polls (0+ / 0-)

    don't fit with that:

    NV: McCain 49-47
    NC: McCain 49-46
    VA: McCain 49-46

    http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

    •  well, fuck em (0+ / 0-)

      if they send Mcasshole to the white house, they will lose what health coverage they have. I'm in a union and we'll burn down trenton if they try to get rid of our health plans. i don't know what the fuck else people need to vote for the smart guy, but I do listen to them complain as things get more fucked up and they wave their hands and say what can ya do.. I say you can stop voting for assholes like Bush and McCain....

  •  Did the debates have anything to do with this? (0+ / 0-)

    I haven't been following the polls as closely as I should have been, but my general sense is that the race has been close (although with Senator Obama always on top).  But the split described in this entry is remarkable.

    Is there any way that the debates had any influence on it?  Or were the debate reactions influenced by these numbers?  Looking back on it, there was that move by Senator McCain to stall his campaign which--genuine or not--was seen as somewhat disingenuous (at least by folks in my circle).  Then, in the debate itself, McCain used numerous emotional lines meant to tug at the heartstrings (which rub people the wrong way, sometimes).  Obama had two things which may have helped him in recent polls.  To start it off, he actually made it a habit to look at his opponent when addressing him.  Secondly, the CNN instant-reaction-o-meter showed some interesting data.  When McCain would speak, the Republican reaction would be positive, naturally, the Independent reaction would stay somewhere near neutral, and the Democratic reaction would be, of course, negative.  But when Obama spoke, the Independent reaction would be positive (not all the time, but a good bit of it).  I wonder if his appeal to Independents is going up.  This debate may have influenced that, but I would think that these reactions are just an example of the electorate's current attitudes.

    And, of course, it's obvious that the parties' reactions to the financial problems have had a huge influence on voter attitudes.  I guess I'm just trying to see if the debates had any relevance.

    It will be interesting to see these numbers after the Vice Presidential debates.  Governor Palin has a lot to prove.  If she doesn't meet objective voters' expectations (those folks who aren't married to a party), more people might migrate to the Obama camp.

    •  my opinion is that since the increase in Obama (0+ / 0-)

      numbers predates the Tuesday post-debate poll, that it's more to do with McCain and Obama's approach to the liquidity crisis. However, Obama did nothing to hurt himself at the debate, and the talking head consensus is that the polls show Obama won.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 12:14:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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