Cross posted at slothropia.com
Canadians vote on October 14 - two weeks from tomorrow. The leaders debate is this Thursday, October 2. In Canada there will be a ratings battle between the five Canadian Leaders and the Palin/Biden possible train wreck.
Since the last update, The Liberals have continued their downward drift, though a couple of polls seem to show their support stabilizing somewhere between 25% and 30%. On the other hand, an Angus Reid poll released on Saturday 9/27 has the NDP and Liberals tied for second place at 21%.
The Conservatives maintain a lead, but polls differ as to how big that lead is. It is clear that Stephen Harper is close to majority territory, but hasn't nailed it down as of this moment.
The Bloc Quebecois has seen a small surge fueled by anti conservative sentiment. They remain in first place in Quebec. The Conservatives look to gain some seats there, but again they are being hampered by the Bloc. The Liberals are weak in Quebec, but no one knows how far they will fall. The NDP will apparently win more than one seat in Quebec, a record for that party.
The conservatives retain a strong lead over a surging NDP in British Columbia, with the Liberals facing possible losses. The Greens continue to suck support from the Grits but still don't have a realistic shot at winning a seat. In Alberta, the Tories remain far ahead of everyone else, though some observers think the NDP has a chance in one Edmonton riding.
Most polls have the Conservatives gaining in Ontario at the Liberals' expense. The NDP is also gaining in Canada's largest province.
In the Atlantic provinces, it is anybody' guess as to who wins what.
Here is a link to Polling Observatory, a site that is kind of the British version of 538 (included here because they analyze Canadian polling).
And here is the Election page of the Globe and Mail, with links to all the major pollsters.