I've long maintained that 1) we're more likely to hit 60 seats in the Senate in 2010, when we get to enjoy a REALLY nice map, and 2) that even if we don't get to 60 this time around, we'll be close enough to create situational filibuster-proof majorities with the help of the most moderate Republicans on an issue-to-issue basis.
Well, the way things are going, 60 is becoming more and more possible this November. Here are our takeover opportunities, ranked from most likely based on Pollster.com aggregate polling numbers:
State Republican Democrat Margin
VA Gilmore Warner
(Open) 32.6 58.2 D+25.6
NM Pearce Udall
(Open) 41.4 55.1 D+13.7
CO Schaffer Udall
(Open) 39.2 44.7 D+5.5
NH Sununu Shaheen
43.1 48.1 D+5
NC Dole Hagan
41.1 45.1 D+4
AK Stevens Begich
45.6 48.0 D+2.4
OR Smith Merkley
41.3 43.0 D+1.7
MN Coleman Franken
45.1 41.3 R+3.8
MS-B Wicker Musgrove
48.3 42.4 R+5.9
KY McConnell Lunsford
48.9 41.5 R+7.4
That's 10 seats within single digits, which would collectively give Dems a 60-40 advantage without Lieberman. We lead in seven of them, and in the other three the Republican incumbents are also below the magic 50 percent mark. In fact, recent polling in Kentucky by SUSA and Mason-Dixon shows it to be a 1-3 point race, effectively tied.
That may not be all: two new independent polls suggest that we might soon be able to add the Georgia Senate race to this list.
The chances for a clean sweep are still low. Nate Silver pegs 60 seats (including Joe Lieberman) at around 16 percent. For a 61-seat, Lieberman-free filibuster-proof majority, Nate gives about an 8 percent chance. In other words, within the realm of possibility, but not likely.
But that is if the election was today. Our candidates' numbers are improving by the day, giving us hope of reaching that 60-seat goal if we continue to contribute both our time and money for the cause.
While a blowout is looking more and more likely, that doesn't mean we should slack. It means we should press our advantages, because political winds have a habit of shifting unpredictably. We have a historic opportunity to radically transform the shape of our federal government, and we'll do that by pressing for every single gain we can get. Not just those safely ahead, or even narrowly behind, but even the long-shots few think can win (like Kleeb in Nebraska and Rice in Oklahoma).